MVP race could hinge on Thursday Night Football

If Matthew Stafford doesn’t win MVP this season, he could be the first quarterback to lose a race he should have been leading wire-to-wire, but those fears can be put to rest with one more dominant game and a win over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday. Or those fears will become a reality should the Rams lose because of something Stafford does in front of millions of fans (and 50 voters) on the biggest stage.

Even as Drake Maye and Josh Allen push for votes in recent weeks, Stafford has continued to produce touchdowns at the highest clip of his career: Stafford has thrown multiple touchdowns in eight consecutive games, which is twice as long as the second-longest active streak by any other quarterback.

In the last five games, Stafford has the highest passer rating in the league (107.2) and he’s the quarterback of the most potent, efficient, and successful offense on any team. Where Stafford gets “docked” in spite of his offensive prowess is the strength of his coaching staff, supporting cast, and run game.

This has led to the conversation opening up to Josh Allen this week after the Bills beat Maye’s Patriots 35-31. It’s not just a reaction to a good game by a good quarterback over a good team: It’s part of an agenda to make sure that the MVP race isn’t as boring of a foregone conclusion as it appears to be. Either Allen or Maye were going to be called “MVP favorites” after beating the other on Sunday.

Now that same opportunity lies in wait for Stafford on Thursday. Beat the Seahawks, all but secure the division and the number one seed, and Allen’s MVP campaign is over. It’s over. Maye’s too.

But lose?

If the Rams lose to the Seahawks, Stafford probably still wins MVP but it’s not nearly as much of a blowout vote as it could be if L.A. wins on Thursday. And it opens the door for Allen or Maye to take the lead if either of their teams win out (Maye gets the Ravens this week, Allen gets the Eagles next week) and take the AFC East, possibly the one seed, with a dominant record.

Matthew Stafford is 6-0 against the Seahawks since joining the Rams, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have any demons to exorcise.

What Stafford can prove in Week 16:

Seattle isn’t a scary place to play for him

Stafford was 0-2 in Seattle with the Lions prior to joining, then he had two easy wins there after joining the Rams. But after Mike Macdonald was hired to be the head coach and defensive coordinator of the Seahawks, Stafford’s success against Seattle has been a little harder to come by:

The Rams needed OT to beat Seattle in Seattle in 2024.

The Rams have won the two SoFi games against Macdonald by a combined total of 3 points.

Sean McVay is 3-0 against Macdonald since he became the head coach, but all of the games have been extremely close. It would be a huge win for Stafford to beat the Seahawks on their homefield again.

He can win in cold weather

The forecast for Thursday is 40 degrees and 90% chance of rain. Stafford has had a well established history of struggles in cold and/or wet weather, but he did put some of those fears to rest in London last year.

Matthew Stafford doesn’t need to prove anything to the Rams or most Rams fans, but we’re just talking about MVP voters here: A bad game wouldn’t change much, but a good game in the rain would be a forceful statement in the twilight of the season.

He can win with fewer weapons

The Rams won’t rule out Davante Adams (hamstring) just yet but he’s probably not going to make it, and that’s another chance for Stafford to prove that he’s still got it without all of his weapons. He already did that once this season with Puka Nacua out. He’s played half of the season without Rob Havenstein and one-third of it without Steve Avila and most of it without Tyler Higbee.

So a game without Adams shouldn’t be that big of a deal, and yet in terms of the narrative it will be.

He can also win the big game with all the stakes

17 years into his career, Stafford has been a division champion two times. Twice! 2021 and 2024. Those are also the only two seasons in which Stafford has won a playoff game. He’s career 0-4 in the playoffs as a wild card. For all intents and purposes Thursday is a playoff game and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

It’s not that all the pressure to win should be on Stafford, but winning would be the final nail in the coffin for anybody else getting MVP votes.

With Allen coming off of his Patriots win, including the resiliency to comeback from a 21-0 deficit on the road in a tough environment, Stafford doesn’t even need to wait a full week to prove the same thing in the same circumstances. The winner of Thursday’s game will be in the number one seed position. The loser will be in a wild card position.

The winner of this game could end up hosting the loser of this game in the NFC Championship.

Not only has Stafford proved himself by winning a Super Bowl, he went into Tampa Bay and beat Tom Brady when the Bucs were the reigning champions. We all know that Matthew Stafford CAN do anything. It’s really just a matter of timing and the MVP race: Does Stafford have good timing or bad timing? Is he lucky or unlucky?

Sometimes awards and wins really do just come down to luck. Did Stafford save his best for last?