The Niners are at a disadvantage in the run game against the Colts. Will that matter?
The San Francisco 49ers have a big game this weekend with the potential to clinch a playoff spot against the Indianapolis Colts, who are still vying for a playoff spot in the AFC with newly-minted 44-year-old quarterback Phillip Rivers.
San Francisco has gotten on a four-game winning streak after failing to win consecutive games for eight straight weeks, beating the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, and Tennessee Titans during that stretch. Now comes the toughest part of the schedule, as the 49ers are facing the Colts, Chicago Bears, and Seattle Seahawks to wrap up the year.
This upcoming matchup against Indianapolis is an interesting one because the 49ers are outmatched in the run game on both sides of the ball. Despite feeding Christian McCaffrey significant volume (third most carries in NFL), San Francisco’s rushing attack ranks 25th in yards per game (101.4) and 31st in yards per carry (3.5).
On the other hand, the Colts have the sixth-best rushing attack in yards per game (128.5) and in yards per carry (4.6). With Phillip Rivers at the helm, Jonathan Taylor will be the focal point of the offense, and he’s had a monster year.
Taylor is currently first in the NFL in carries (272), yards (1,443), rushing touchdowns (16), and seventh in yards per attempt (5.3). Against an elite defense in the Seattle Seahawks this past week, running exclusively out of the shotgun with Rivers at quarterback, Taylor had 25 carries for 87 yards.
He’ll be the guy on offense against San Francisco, which has struggled to contain the run since Fred Warner was hurt back in Week 6. The 49ers are in the bottom half of the NFL when it comes to yards per carry, and they haven’t been very good even during their win streak.
San Francisco has allowed 5.4 yards per carry in its last three games, while giving up 136 yards per contest during that stretch.
Indianapolis, on the other hand, has been one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL this season. They’re first in yards per carry allowed (37.1) and sixth in rushing yards allowed per game (95.1).
So, the 49ers don’t have a good rushing offense and are facing an elite run defense. And the Colts have a great rushing attack and are facing a below-average run defense. Usually, the team that struggles more in the trenches loses.
But, San Francisco has found ways to score despite their middling efficiency in the run game, thanks to an efficient passing attack under either Brock Purdy or Mac Jones. When the turnovers come, they’re killer, but as we’ve seen the last few weeks, the offense can be special when there’s good quarterback play at the helm.
That’ll be needed against a pretty good Colts secondary on Monday, because the best way to neutralize this Colts team is a fast start to make them more one-dimensional. It’s easier said than done, as Indianapolis was right in the mix throughout the game against Seattle, which has played like a top-five team as of late.
But, the 49ers will need to find a way to win on Monday without winning in the trenches, where they haven’t been very good on the defensive side of the ball this season.
Category: General Sports
