Seahawks playoff scenarios show how large tomorrow night vs the Rams is

1st seed or 5th seed in the NFC playoffs. That’s the difference between winning and losing the game Thursday night at Lumen Field is.

Julian Love’s been around the league a day or three. He’s wise enough, and respectful enough, not to try to poo-poo the undeniably prominent.

Rams at Seahawks Thursday night at Lumen Field is large.

“It’s always heightened in division games,” Love, Seattle’s Pro Bowl veteran safety, said. “But obviously the moment of this season this is a big game.

“You’re going to hear, ‘Oh, this is just another game.’ You’re going to here ‘It’s December football. It’s playoff football,’ that type of thing,” Love said, three weeks back from a hamstring injury.

“My mindset is, let’s just say what it is: Right now, we are fighting for the number-one seed in the NFC. There’s a lot of power in that, especially being in Seattle with a great home stadium. That’s just where we are. We have a chance to do that.

“It’s a team that we’ve seen, and we lost to in the past (21-19 last month in Inglewood, California). We didn’t play our cleanest football, still was close.”

Love’s approach: Bring it on!

“You can appreciate the hype. You can try to hide from it,” Love said. “Just face it head-on...

“Embrace the moment.”

Seattle Seahawks safety Julian Love (20) walks out before the game against the Houston Texans at Lumen Field, on Monday, Oct. 20, 2025, in Seattle.

This game is the first Thursday night one in NFL history in which both teams have 11 or more wins.

The Seahawks (11-3) currently trail the Rams (11-3) in the NFC West the conference’s top seed, with the NFC’s only first-round bye and home-field advantage through the conference title game next month that comes with that. That’s because of L.A.’s narrow win over Seattle last month, when Sam Darnold gave them Rams his career-high four interceptions. Two of the Rams’ three touchdowns, their only scores that day, came on drives of 4 and 25 yards off two of those four interceptions.

The stakes for Thursday night are as high as they are obvious. The winner is two more wins from the division title and top seed.

The loser is likely to be the fifth seed, the top wild card. That would mean a first-round game at the NFC South winner, likely Tampa Bay, and then round two at perhaps Green Bay, Chicago — or the winner of Thursday night’s game in a third go-round this season. Round three, the conference title, would almost assuredly be on the road, too, perhaps to Philadelphia.

Not impossible, given the Seahawks’ 13-2 road record the last two seasons under first-time coach Mike Macdonald.

But not the optimal way to get to the Super Bowl.

Playoff scenarios

The Rams have already clinched a playoff spot.

The Seahawks can clinch one with a win or a tie Thursday, or Detroit (8-6) losing Sunday at home to Pittsburgh (8-6). But as Love said, they are thinking about more than merely clinching any place in the postseason Seattle’s missed two of the last three years.

If the Seahawks win Thursday night then win at Carolina (7-7) next week — and the 49ers (10-4) win at the Colts (8-6) Monday night plus at home against Chicago (10-4) — week 18 Seattle at San Francisco will be for the NFC West title plus top playoff seed.

If the Seahawks beat the Rams then lose at Carolina (7-7) next week yet beat the 49ers in the regular-season finale, L.A. would have to lose to Atlanta (5-9) in week 17 and to Arizona (3-11) at home in week 18 for Seattle to win the division.

If the Seahawks beat the Rams and Panthers the next two weeks then lose to the 49ers, the Rams would have to lose once and the 49ers would have to lose once for Seattle to win the West.

So, yes, Thursday night is big.

To win it, the Seahawks need to get their stuck offense unstuck.

Indianapolis Colts defensive end Tyquan Lewis (94) hits Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) as he throws during the third quarter of the game at Lumen Field, on Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025, in Seattle.

Seahawks offense’s issues

Seattle drove inside the Indianapolis 35-yard line four times and into the red zone twice last weekend. Yet the Seahawks didn’t score a touchdown. They beat the Colts 18-16 on Jason Myers’ team-record six field goals.

“We 100% need to dial in our stuff in the red zone,” wide receiver Cooper Kupp said before facing his former Rams for the second time. “The margins get that much thinner, they get much smaller, when you get down there. “And we’ve got to do a better job.”

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) makes a reception and protects the ball from Indianapolis Colts cornerback Mekhi Blackmon (29) during the second quarter of the game at Lumen Field, on Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025, in Seattle.

The Seahawks were in a 6-6 tie into the third quarter at out-of-it Atlanta the previous week. They were 0-0 into the second quarter against out-of-it Minnesota the week before that.

Third downs and the red zone are the situations where tight NFL games are won — and where Seattle’s been losing. The Seahawks were 2 for 13 on third downs against the Colts. It was the sixth time this season they’ve been less than 33% converting third downs.

Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak sees “quite a few things” wrong lately on third downs and in the red zone.

“Whether (it’s) not being successful in your red zone, third downs, not being productive running the football, not calling good enough plays and getting your guys in positions to be successful, it’s a group effort,” Kubiak said.

“And it’s a group failure that we’ve got to improve on.” For the season Seattle is converting 34.15% of third downs. That’s 19th-best in the league. The Seahawks are turning 57.45% of their red-zone trip into touchdowns. That’s 17th in the league. The last three weeks that’s been 37.5%

That’s not good enough.

“We just need to get together and understand the game plan and execute, at the end of the day,” Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the NFL’s leader with 1,541 yards receiving, said.

“And I’ll leave it at that.”

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) is pushed out of bounds by Indianapolis Colts safety Cam Bynum (0) during the third quarter of the game at Lumen Field, on Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025, in Seattle.

Category: General Sports