Seattle has gone from one of the most explosive drop-back games in the league to one that’s been pedestrian recently. Why?
Seattle has a late-season gut check game this week
The NFC West has another massive, conference-defining matchup between the Rams and Seahawks on Thursday night that will likely decide who wins the division and gets home-field advantage for the NFC playoffs. These have been two of the best teams in the league this year and both of them are comfortably Super Bowl contenders, no matter who wins the division. Their performances haven’t been quite as equal even though they both enter this game with 11-3 records.
The Rams this season have been a juggernaut, even in losses, showing off ridiculous offensive firepower and a competent defense. However, the Seahawks’ offense has produced some jumbled performances recently that give a little pause on their ability to make a run through the postseason.
Since Week 11, when they suffered a 21-19 loss to the Rams, the Seahawks’ offense has put up pedestrian numbers. According to TruMedia, Seattle ranks 21st in expected points added per play, 13th in success rate and 24th in third-down conversion rate. The Seahawks still have some high-flying and explosive moments that have made them such an incredible watch this season, but overall it’s been shakier than they would like. They were comfortably a top 7-10 offense with dominant peaks this season for the first 10 weeks of the season, but not so much since.
Part of the reason is non-play-action passing has fallen off a cliff. They’ve gone from one of the most explosive drop-back games in the league to one that’s been pedestrian recently. Even their play-action passing has dropped from the consensus No. 1 attack in the league to one that’s just top 10 over the past month. This might feel like nitpicking because this isn’t one of the worst offenses in the league, but they’re Super Bowl contenders playing an in-division Super Bowl contender they lost to earlier. So it’s fair to be concerned here.
The Rams, on the other hand, have continued to breathe fire on every defense they go against recently, averaging a whopping 3.18 points per drive since Week 11 and a blistering red-zone touchdown rate of 72.7%, both tops in the league. Third downs have been an issue, but they’re so efficient on early downs (and in general) that it hasn’t been too much of a problem. The Seahawks’ sterling defense will likely prevent the Rams from ripping off their third 40-point game in a row, but they’re playing at an all-time pace right now going into the postseason.
The stakes are monstrous and these teams are going through different ebbs and flows with the Rams peaking at the perfect time. This is what we want on “Thursday Night Football”!
Tampa Bay and Carolina will play the lowest of the high-stakes games this weekend
What’s there left to say about the NFC South? This is the lowest the division has felt in terms of overall quality now that Tampa Bay has fallen off a cliff from where it was earlier this season.
Tampa Bay and Carolina will have the first of their two matchups on Sunday, with the final one coming in Week 18. While the Panthers have improved this season, last weekend showed that both of these teams are awfully weak to have atop of a division — but wins are wins and here we are.
The Panthers and Bucs lost to the Saints and Falcons, respectively, in Week 15. Both of those teams have been among the worst in the league this year, and the Bucs and Panthers each have only seven wins. Nobody considers either of these teams threats to win in the playoffs, which brings us to something the NFL needs to consider: Get rid of the automatic home game for division winners.
Division winners should still be automatic qualifiers for the postseason, but then rank it by record and re-seed from there as the playoffs go along. Why should anyone be rewarded for climbing out of the sewer with one shoe on to win the division?
Why am I producing ideas on what to do with the porous and humiliating NFC South? Well, it’s almost Christmas, I don’t feel well and the thought of what the Falcons have done this season makes it only worse. Let’s get back to real teams.
How the Chargers fare against the Cowboys may project their postseason
The Chargers have sputtered a bit here to close their season, but they firmly control their playoff path at 10-4. While their record is impressive, some of their performances this season have left some to be desired in terms of down-to-down play.
As they head into the final stretch of the season currently holding a playoff spot, the playoff-hopeful Cowboys will provide a good test for them with their array of high-end talent that they’ve acquired. Both teams are flawed, but the Chargers still need to prove that they can win against the more complete offenses in the league, which the Cowboys absolutely have.
Los Angeles’ defense has had another quality season, but it hasn’t had the toughest slate of offenses this year, which will change this weekend. Even in the Chargers’ two wins over the Chiefs, Kansas City’s skill talent was not a huge challenge for them. Dak Prescott and the turbo-charged Dallas offense will provide problems they haven’t dealt with outside of the early season Colts, who scored 38 points on them.
Since that Week 7 game, the Chargers have had one of the top performing defenses in the league. Since the start of Week 8, they rank in the top three of the vast majority of defensive efficiency stats and 44.6% of opposing drives failed to gain a first down. It’s really gnarly what they’re doing to these other offenses, but these offenses aren’t exactly the scariest units in the league. That run is made up of playing the Vikings, Titans, Steelers, Jaguars, Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs. The Jaguars managed to put up 35 points in rough fashion, but the Chargers’ defense was left out to dry by an offense primarily featuring backup quarterback Trey Lance. Holding the Chiefs to 13 points last week prior to a late-game injury to Patrick Mahomes was impressive, but they don't have the same overall talent as Dallas.
The Cowboys’ problems are on defense. The offense is filled with stars just about everywhere except at running back — which is at worst solid. Prescott has played elite football this year, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have been a monster duo at wide receiver, and the offensive line at its best is one of the better units in the league.
This is a tough matchup for a team that is still building out its defensive personnel, but if the Chargers can slow down this Cowboys offense then they’ll have a chance to change their outlook for the postseason. The way the Jaguars pummeled them up front was troubling, but they can reassure people now.
There’s also the offensive side where a beleaguered, injured line will have the fun task of blocking the Cowboy’s interior defensive tackle rotation of Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark and Osa Odighizuwa. I’ve seen enough games with this Chargers offensive line to know how that’s going to go. L.A. probably doesn’t have the horses for a run, but we will find out how the Chargers fare against a desperate and talented Cowboys team soon enough.
The Bills and Patriots will split for a fascinating weekend
After Buffalo’s dramatic win against the division rival Patriots, the stage has been set for a tight finish between two of the best teams in the NFL to see who will win the AFC East — and potentially get home field-advantage for the playoffs. The Patriots and Bills split the season series, but the Patriots hold the keys for the divisional crown with 11 wins to the Bills’ 10.
These teams face stark differences in terms of the quality of opponent they’ll be facing and the oddsmakers are suggesting that these two will have the same record after this weekend is over — adding all the pressure in the world for the final two weeks of the season.
Buffalo got the perfect draw that it needed to keep pace with the Patriots: the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are a bizarrely electric topic of discussion this season. Not because of Myles Garrett’s epic chase of Michael Strahan’s sack record, but because of the obsession around rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Luckily for Buffalo, Sanders has comfortably been the worst starting quarterback in the league this year and is completing only 48% of his non-screen passes. The Browns have a couple of formidable rookies in running back Quinshon Judkins and tight end Harold Fannin Jr., but Sanders is so limited and disaster-prone that the strong Bills pass defense should be able to smother him. Judkins may rip off some nice runs against a leaky run defense, but it’s hard to see how they’ll be able to keep pace with the Bills — unless Garrett just makes life completely untenable for Buffalo.
On the Patriots’ side, they head to Baltimore to take on a desperate Ravens team coming off of one of their best performances of the season, holding the Bengals to 0 points on the road. Baltimore is still an incomplete team, but even in this diminished state it is still an incredibly tough out as the defense has improved and Lamar Jackson gets a smidge healthier each week (assuming his recent “flu deal” subsides). The Ravens are actually favored by three points in this game, making it no freebie for a Patriots team that also needs to win this game. This is a much stiffer challenge than taking on a rebuilding team with a Day 3 rookie quarterback.
New England will close its season with the other AFC East teams, the Dolphins and Jets, who are also starting late-round and undrafted players at quarterback like Cleveland. Buffalo has a game against the Eagles and then the Jets.
Last weekend set the stage for drama, this weekend is where the final push for a home playoff game begins between two of the most explosive quarterbacks in the league. Buckle up!
Category: General Sports
