Zachary Krueger dives into players he has high, medium, and low levels of confidence in for the fantasy football playoffs.
If you're reading this article ahead of Week 16, you're likely prepping for the fantasy football semifinals, or you advanced through the first round of your league's Toilet Bowl. Congrats, you undoubtedly earned it one way or the other.
The confidence meter, for the most part, was hitting on all cylinders in Week 15, and we're back to do it again. Here is a list of players I have high, medium, and low confidence in for your Week 16 fantasy matchups.
Best of luck this week.
Denny Carter⬆️ High Confidence
Jacoby Brissett (vs. ATL)
Jacoby Brissett proved to be virtually matchup-proof in Week 15. Facing a stout Texans defense, the Cardinals' QB1 threw for 249-3-1 while dropping back 43 times. Brissett has started nine games for the Cardinals this season and dropped back 40-plus times in eight of them. With another running back injury that forced Bam Knight (ankle) to injured reserve, the Cardinals will likely be adding another 40 dropbacks to Brissett's season total this weekend. Brissett has finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in every start this season. As far as matchups are concerned, the Falcons are giving up the second-most fantasy points to QBs this season. There's no reason to overthink this.
Quinshon Judkins (vs. BUF)
It's been tough sledding for Quinshon Judkins as of late. The Browns' RB1 has just one top-12 PPR finish since Week 8 and has finished as the RB26 or worse in five of his last seven games. While that's not exactly encouraging, Judkins' 36 percent opportunity share since Week 8 ranks fifth-highest among RBs, while his 68 percent rush share is third-highest behind only Jonathan Taylor and Ashton Jeanty. Judkins' volume makes him a must-start in plus matchups, and he draws a Bills defense that's allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs in Week 16. In addition to allowing the third-most points to opposing RBs, the Bills are also allowing the fifth-highest explosive run (15-plus yard runs) rate at 7.0 percent, and the second-most rushing yards (772) on explosive runs this season.
Kenneth Gainwell (@DET)
In last week's article, I had Jaylen Warren as a "low-confidence" pick due to a growing split between him and Kenneth Gainwell, and an underwhelming stretch of games. In Week 15 against the Dolphins, Warren rushed 12 times for 33 scoreless yards while adding another three receptions for 15 yards. Gainwell, on the other hand, totaled 126 yards from scrimmage, which included 80 yards on the ground and a 7-46-0 through the air on seven targets. Gainwell has seen six or more targets in four of his last five games. Gainwell's pass-catching has helped propel him into a top-12 PPR finish in four of his last five games as well, and his 57 receptions on the season currently lead all players on the Steelers. Gainwell has looked like the best Steelers back for the past month and is clearly a better fantasy asset than Warren at this stage in the season.
Chris Olave (vs. NYJ)
Chris Olave's bounceback season continued in Week 15's win over the Panthers. Olave caught six passes for 85 yards and a touchdown in last week's upset win while having nine targets funneled in his direction. Olave gets another plus matchup at home against a Jets defense that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Olave has finished as a top-24 PPR receiver in four of his last five games and has earned a 27 percent target share over that span. Devaughn Vele, who is second on the Saints with a 19 percent opportunity share since Week 10, has already been ruled out for Week 16 due to a shoulder injury.
Courtland Sutton (vs. JAC)
Courtland Sutton has finished as a top-24 PPR receiver in three-straight weeks and now gets a Week 16 matchup against a Jaguars team that has struggled to slow opposing receivers as of late. Since Week 11, the Jaguars have allowed three separate receiving corps to finish in the top-12 in fantasy scoring, and the 21.6 targets they've allowed to opposing receivers over that span are good for third-most in the league. Sutton has seen 10 targets in back-to-back weeks and has seen eight or more targets in seven games this season. He's been the one consistent producer for the Broncos at receiver and could take advantage of a secondary that's been susceptible to giving up points to receivers as of late.
Matthew Berry➡️ Medium Confidence
C.J. Stroud (vs. LV)
The Raiders won't do much, if anything, to push C.J. Stroud and the Texans' offense in Week 16, but the same could be said of last week's 40-20 takedown of the Cardinals. Despite the Texans' dominant outing, Stroud still managed to throw for 260-3-0 on 32 drop-backs and finish as the fantasy QB7. Houston's backfield is also banged up. With Woody Marks (ankle) and Nick Chubb (ribs) also banged up, the Texans could opt to lean a little more on their passing game regardless of game script.
Darren Waller (vs. CIN)
Two fourth-quarter propelled Darren Waller into the TE3 position for the week in PPR leagues. Waller, who finished the day with a 7-66-2 line, was drawing dead entering the fourth quarter. He saw six of his seven catches and 58 yards come in the fourth quarter. Waller caught a combined three passes for 60 scoreless yards in his previous two games combined and was targeted three times in both games. He's been far from a slam dunk this year, but he still has the juice to pop off in the right matchup, which will come this week at home against the Bengals. The Bengals are one of the worst defenses in the league and have been a top streaming option for tight ends. On paper, Waller is a smart start. It's now on the Waller's fantasy managers and rookie QB Quinn Ewers, who is making his first career start, to exploit this plus matchup.
Travis Kelce (@TEN)
With Patrick Mahomes (knee) sidelined, Gardner Minshew will make his first start of the season for the Chiefs. In Week 15 against the Chargers, Minshew attempted only five passes, but three of those looks went to Travis Kelce, who hauled in two of those targets while the third was intercepted. Kelce has finished nine times as a top-12 fantasy tight end this season and draws a Titans team that is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the last five weeks. Minshew has started 22 games over the last two seasons and led his tight ends to an average of 11.7 PPR points in this game while funneling them 7.6 targets per game. Kelce is already fifth among tight ends in targets (92) and receptions (67) this season. Even without his QB1 on the field, Kelce should have a chance to return top-12 fantasy value against a team tight ends have flourished against as of late.
Zay Flowers (BAL)
Since Week 11, Zay Flowers has boasted a 28 percent target share in the Ravens' offense. His 34 targets over that span are 12 more than Mark Andrews' 22 targets, and Flowers is averaging a respectable 12.4 PPR points per game over that span. Flowers draws a Week 16 matchup against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, but they've allowed opposing receivers to score only five touchdowns in their last five games. The Ravens' recent offensive struggles as of late are cause for concern. Baltimore's passing game ranks 29th in EPA per dropback (-0.160), and 25th in dropback success rate (41.6 percent), and Lamar Jackson hasn't looked like himself since returning from injury. Jackson put together a decent passing line (150-2-1) in Week 15's win over the Bengals, but he didn't have to do much through the air, attempting only 12 passes on the day.
Omarion Hampton (@DAL)
Since returning to the Chargers in Week 14, Omarion Hampton has seen a near 50/50 touch split with Kimani Vidal. Hampton finished as the RB17 in Week 14's win over the Eagles, totaling 67 yards from scrimmage on 15 touches while also finding the end zone through the air. Hampton didn't fare quite as well in Week 15 against the Chiefs, finishing as the RB38 while rushing for 15-61-0, but the volume has been solid for back-to-back weeks. Over the last two weeks, Hampton has also seen seven red zone opportunities to Vidal's one, which paints a pretty clear picture of who the Chargers want handling the ball in the high-value areas of the field. A higher share of the touches would propel Hampton into the high-confidence range for this week, but his red zone usage gives him the better scoring upside of the two backs.
⬇️ Low Confidence
Trevor Lawrence (@DEN)
The last time Trevor Lawrence faced a top-10 defense was in Week 11 when he threw for 153-1-1 against the Chargers and finished with 16.6 fantasy points. He was the QB13 on the week and was bailed out by a one-yard touchdown run that accounted for more than a third of fantasy points. In Week 9, facing another top-10 defense in the Texans, Lawrence threw for 158-1-1 and ended the week as the QB20 with 13.4 fantasy points. Lawrence has been cruising on easy street in recent weeks and has four-straight top-12 fantasy finishes to his name. That streak likely comes to an end this weekend on the road against a fifth-ranked Broncos defense. Lawrence is enjoying one of his best seasons as a pro, but fantasy managers shouldn't look to chase last week's five-touchdown outing against the Jets. The Broncos are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season and have allowed one top-12 fantasy QB in the last five weeks. In standard 1QB leagues, I'm comfortable fading Lawrence.
Tyler Warren (vs. SF)
On paper, this isn't such a bad matchup. Tyler Warren is quietly putting together one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history at the tight end position, and the 49ers are the 11th-easiest matchup for tight ends this week. Unfortunately, what the spreadsheets don't know is that 44-year-old Philip Rivers is making his second start after nine years away, and Warren is in the midst of a 13-101-1 streak over his last four games and is averaging just 7.3 PPR points/gm over that span. The target volume hasn't been awful (6.0 targets/gm) over Warren's last four games, but it's far from reliable. Rivers faced a stout Seahawks defense on the road and had only a week of practice to prepare. Even with all this considered, it's hard to feel overly confident starting any Colts pass-catchers in Rivers' second game back, and Warren was already struggling prior to Daniel Jones going down. While he certainly isn't a bad play, Warren doesn't exactly feel like a must-start, either.
Audric Estime (vs. NYJ)
Last week, I had Devin Neal as a medium confidence play against the Panthers. Despite seeing only eight touches before exiting with a hamstring injury, Neal still managed to rush for 7-28-1 and added another catch for four yards. His RB27 finish was, some would say, a mild success. With Neal already ruled out for Week 16's game against the Jets, Audric Estime is on the radar as a potential streaming option for the most desperate of fantasy managers. Emphasis on 'desperate.' Given the player and situation, it's hard to justify placing Estime in the medium- or high-confidence range, but he's a player worth discussing. In Week 15's game against the Panthers, Estime led all Saints running backs with 24 snaps and had six opportunities to Evan Hull's four. Estime played on every third or fourth down snap that Neal wasn't in on, and churned out a nice PPR scam for himself, catching three passes for 39 yards. Were this any other running back facing the Jets, who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, this would be a smash. Instead, we're forced to approach a plus matchup with caution, given the running backs who will be leading the way.
Hunter Henry (@BAL)
Welcome back to the low-confidence portion of the article, Hunter Henry. Henry found himself down here last week ahead of Week 15's game against the Bills, and proved to be a worthy mention. The Patriots' TE1 caught just one pass for 18 yards on three targets and now draws a Baltimore defense that's allowed the fewest points to opposing defenses this season. Henry has only three top-12 PPR finishes this season and seems unlikely to add a fourth this weekend.
Deebo Samuel (vs. PHI)
The Eagles have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, which could spell bad news for all Commanders pass-catchers. While I would still expect Terry McLaurin to find a way to turn out a respectable top-24 week, I'm far less confident in Deebo Samuel's ability to do the same. After posting four top-24 PPR weeks in his first five games of the season, Samuel has finished as a WR3 or worse in seven of his last eight games. The one exception was a Week 11 WR5 finish against the Dolphins. Since that game, Samuel has finished as the WR32, the WR48, and the WR53 in his last three games. Any hopes of a high ceiling still existing for Samuel have largely fallen by the wayside.
NOTE:All player rankings are based on PPR scoring. Playoff schedule rankings courtesy of the RotoViz Strength of Schedule Streaming App.
Category: General Sports
