From ‘shoot out’ to ‘slug fest’?

The Los Angeles Rams are amidst a stretch that includes two of their most important games of the season. LA is in a race for the number one seed in the NFC conference. They took down the Detroit Lions and are set to face the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.

The contest against the Lions was a high-flying, high-scoring affair. Both Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff threw for over 300 yards and the teams combined for over 70 points.

Stars are aligning for the clash in Seattle to contrast in a stark manner. We could see the Rams pivot from a “shoot out” to a “slug fest” in a matter of a few days.

I can’t shake the last matchup from my head

The Rams’ first game against the Seahawks was an outlier for a few reasons:

• It was Stafford’s least productive outing since his trade to Los Angeles
• The Rams pivoted from their frequent deployment of heavier offensive personnel
• LA was short on yardage and play calls because Sam Darnold threw four picks and gave them abbreviated fields.

Let’s take these one at a time:

Seattle did the best to slow down the Rams so far

NFL teams build their roster to beat division opponents. What Mike MacDonald has done in Seattle is no exception. He’s crafting a defense uniquely capable of slowing down the Rams and 49ers. The Seahawks shift their defensive looks on a nearly week-to-week basis and introduce new elements often in order to keep offenses on their back foot.

This approach paid dividends in the last matchup against the Rams, though Darnold blew an impressive effort by the defense and threw four interceptions. The below graphic explains just how unproductive this night was for Los Angeles in the overall picture of Stafford’s career with the Rams:

Rams were forced off their offensive gameplan

Puka Nacua was injured in Week 6. Out of necessity the Rams deployed 13 personnel (one RB, three TE’s) against the Baltimore Ravens. Los Angeles more heavily relied on this package the following week versus the Jacksonville Jaguars and then stayed on this trajectory for two more games.

While LA used 13 personnel at more than a 45% frequency in Weeks 7-10, Seattle forced them back into mostly 11 personnel in Week 11 (below 45%). MacDonald and the Seahawks are a savvy defense. They aren’t going to let offenses dictate their personnel, and most of the Rams’ offensive success came in their traditional looks.

This is a very important aspect of the rematch to consider ahead of Thursday evening.

Rams were handed shortened fields

There is no way to measure the impact on offensive production based on turnovers from the other team that I am aware of; however, there are still intangible factors that could have weighed down Stafford and the Rams in the last game. Were Sean McVay and Mike LaFleur really able to dig deep into their play sheet and influence Seattle’s defense, or were they somewhat calling plays on an ad lib basis? Could Stafford and the Rams have gained more yards if they needed to put together longer drives?

It doesn’t necessarily matter other than the fact it changes how we remember the first matchup.

Rain, rain, go away

The Seattle metro is expected to get rain for most of Thursday. There’s an 86-77% chance for most of the afternoon and then this dips down to 43% around the start of the game. By the time the fourth quarter rolls around, the likelihood of rain will be at 20%.

The Rams are also likely to miss Davante Adams in this game. Konata Mumpfield is his likely replacement on the outside.

In short, all signs are pointing to this game being won on the ground. This likely plays into the Rams’ hands as they have one of the most efficient running attacks in the NFL at this point in time. The Seahawks, inversely, lack explosiveness and consistency between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.

The NFC West race could be decided by a slug fest one week after the Rams won a shoot out against the Lions to keep pace with the Seahawks and 49ers.