Thoughts on the Home Stretch

Well, look at it this way: The 2025 Vikings’ championship hopes lasted just as long as the Kansas City Chiefs’.

Honestly, I’ve never felt so good on a day when the Vikings were officially eliminated from the playoffs. J.J. McCarthy is improving by leaps and bounds before our eyes. After playing his best game so far last week against the Washington Commanders, he followed it up Sunday Night with an even better performance on the road, during primetime, against a desperate Dallas Cowboys team.

Aside from a couple of issues, like the initial interception (the batted balls need to be addressed in the offseason), a bad miss to Jefferson, and a Griddy that apparently annoyed KOC, McCarthy was excellent. His QBR reached a season high at 85.6, along with another traditional QB rating over 100 (108.0). Over the past two weeks, his numbers have been impressive: a 73.3% adjusted completion percentage, 448 total yards, six total touchdowns to just one interception, and a 120.3 passer rating. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s tied with MVP favorite Matt Stafford for first in the NFL in “Big Time Throw” percentage at 7.2%. This is defined as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown farther down the field and/or into a tighter window.” Apparently, 16 of his 246 passes fall into this category. Oh, and he’s the only player in NFL history to throw two touchdown passes and run for a touchdown three times in his first eight games. Not too shabby.

Here are some observations as we approach the final stretch of the 2025 season.

HATERS RUNNING FOR COVER

I feel great for J.J. McCarthy and hope the final three games further cement the progress we’ve seen, setting us up for an eagerly awaited 2026 season. It’s impossible not to root for the guy. Well, some can. The haters are out there in the sports media and across social media. We all know who the bloviators are. Even some Vikings fans were throwing around the dreaded “b” word after five or six starts. Oh, and I can also live without seeing that stupid locker room meme again.

As a staunch supporter of McCarthy, I was hesitant after the Packers game. I need to be honest. The situation was tough, and some of the numbers were historically bad. These weren’t just expected developmental hiccups; they were five-alarm fires. If he didn’t improve significantly by the end of the year, the Vikings would have no choice but to consider other options. That doesn’t mean trading him or anything like that, but this is a “win now” roster, and the risks are too high not to have an active QB competition next summer.

Fortunately, we can all breathe a sigh of relief. Even if there are some mixed results over the final three weeks, the last two games, along with some other notable clutch moments, give me confidence that things will be just fine moving forward. Given his injury history so far in his young career, you absolutely need to bring in a reliable veteran backup. But that person would be just that. The rest of the season is about McCarthy continuing to learn and using that valuable experience to hit the ground running next September.

The bottom line is that, while the jury is still out on whether McCarthy will be an elite, top 10 QB for the next decade-plus, the evidence is quickly mounting that he isn’t going to be the dreaded “b” word, either.

WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN

Despite the positive vibes, I couldn’t shake the feeling of what might have been. If McCarthy’s improvement was simply a matter of reps, combined with a shift to more of the familiar, heavier personnel packages Jim Harbaugh used at Michigan, how would the season have looked if he hadn’t gotten injured in Week 2? It’s entirely plausible that these performances could have happened in late October or early November, potentially saving the season. Yes, I know C.J. Ham and Josh Oliver missed time, but it still could have been done. And yes, the Cowboys and Commanders have bad defenses, but no one is mistaking this year’s Ravens and Bears units with the Purple People Eaters. Those were all winnable games. Likewise, if Carson Wentz hadn’t been injured against the Cleveland Browns and had been a functional NFL quarterback for that Eagles game, we would have won it.

Swapping just two games could have changed everything. We’d be 8-6 and peaking at the perfect time to grab a wild card. One more win, and we’d be right in the race for the NFC North title. But, unfortunately, as is often the case with the Vikings, we’re left to wonder about “what ifs.” Considering that we’ve already beaten the Lions on the road with an inconsistent McCarthy, and that the Packers just lost Micah Parsons, a 9-8 season isn’t out of the question. The best we can do is maximum optimism heading into 2026. Given how things could have gone after hitting rock bottom against the Seattle Seahawks, that’s definitely a win.

CHRISTIAN DARRISAW CONCERN?

The McCarthy rollercoaster has effectively drained the oxygen from the room for most of the season, pushing other important storylines aside. One of those is the status of All-World LT Christian Darrisaw’s knee injury and why it remains an issue more than 400 days after the initial injury.

Yeah, I know the Adrian Peterson precedent spoils us, but something might be going on here. I hope not. Maybe it’s still the old Zimmer “just a tweak” situation with Danielle Hunter weighing on my mind. Perhaps some people can add details in the comments, but I don’t believe any secondary damage occurred; we’re still focusing on the initial problem. I also haven’t seen any detailed explanation from the team other than the usual platitudes about “rest days,” “working through it,” “we’ll see,” and “don’t think it will be anything.” I don’t recall any mention of setbacks amid the overall cautiously optimistic view of Darrisaw’s return, so I missed the first two games on IR. Then he came back against the Bengals and immediately shut down Trey Hendrickson and his 35 sacks over the past two seasons. Everything seemed fine, or maybe it wasn’t?

While it definitely benefits McCarthy to have Darrisaw for the rest of the season, it will help him even more to have him fully healthy with no lingering issues in time for Week 1 of the 2026 season. If the former in any way, shape, or form could negatively affect the latter, then it wouldn’t be the worst idea to shut Darrisaw down for the final three games. If there’s any way that additional strain could turn a manageable, temporary issue into a potentially permanent one, then you have to do it. Let’s hope for the best.

DRAFT NEEDS IN FOCUS

Brian Flores did a good job managing the NFL’s most dangerous offense. Although the Vikings allowed 423 total yards, they only gave up two touchdowns and pressured Dak Prescott on 48 percent of his dropbacks, limiting the Cowboys to 2/12 on third down (3/4 on fourth down). The pressure rate was reportedly the highest for any game in Prescott’s career.

As has been the case more often than not this year, stopping the run remains a challenge. They dropped from second overall in 2024 (93.4 yards per game) to 24th (127.6) with three games remaining in 2025. Specifically, the team continues to give up an uncomfortable number of big runs up the middle. Javonte Williams averaged 6.1 yards per carry on Sunday night; he averaged 3.4 in the previous two games. As noted in earlier articles, much of this has to do with the decision to shift the defensive line’s focus toward interior pressure.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the defensive side of the ball were a priority early in next year’s draft, focusing on strengthening the run defense. The Vikings have young talent – Jalen Redmond has been excellent and LDR strong as well – but they need long-term replacements for Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen, especially because of salary cap constraints. With heavy rotation along the defensive line being the norm nowadays, adding a bigger body to occupy blockers on early downs would be advantageous.

Safety and cornerback also need to be prioritized. I assume the order depends on whether Brian Flores returns and if there is a continued focus on “big nickel” as the schematic preference. Harrison Smith retiring will account for a loss of 70.4% of snaps (in 12 games). One of the few areas where we’ve been lucky is that starters Isaiah Rodgers and Byron Murphy Jr. have remained healthy this season.

ANOTHER GIANT LEAP FORWARD?

With that, it’s onto the 2-12 New York Giants and their porous defense. The Giants rank 29th in points allowed per game (28.3), 30th in yards (382.5), 23rd against the pass (228.9), and 31st against the run (153.6). They perform better in sacks (18th), pressures (16th), and pressure percentage (19th). On paper, everything looks favorable for McCarthy and the Vikings’ offense. The weather should also be fine, so they could score 30 points for the third straight week.

On offense, the Giants are walloped by key injuries, with Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo leading the way, yet they perform better statistically than I expected. They rank 22nd in points per game (21.4), 12th in yards (343.2), 15th in passing (218.1), and 10th in rushing (125.1). I’m sure they’ve played a lot of catch-up this year, as 2-12 teams tend to do, so much of this could be considered garbage time padding. Jaxson Dart has shown promise, with 13 TDs and only 4 INTs amid the chaos. One performance against the outstanding Broncos D in Denver stands out, as he had the Giants in position to win the game (and they should have).

Here’s what I said about this one back in May.

Week 16: @New York Giants: After a 2-game losing streak, someone will have to pay. Enter the Giants, who could legit be 1-13 at this point (look at their schedule!!!). It’ll officially be Jaxson Dart time for the G-Men, with Brian Daboll updating his resume. Jaxson Dart may have the coolest QB name until someone named T.D. Pass comes along, but Flores doesn’t care. He channels Sensei Kreese, goes all Cobra Kai, shows no mercy, and makes MetLife Stadium his dojo. Sam Howell sighting!

Minnesota Vikings: 42

New York Giants: 10

Close on the Giants’ record, but way off on the possibility of a Sam Howell appearance. The rest? Maybe not 42-10, but I expect McCarthy to impress for the third straight week and our defense to keep the Giants under 20 points unless we have costly turnovers in our territory or special teams breakdowns.

Let’s keep the positive vibes going, shall we?

Minnesota Vikings: 31

New York Giants: 17