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The odds are stacked against the former YouTube influencer.

Jake Paul vowed to pull off one of the biggest upsets in sports history by defeating Anthony Joshua at Wednesday's final press conference — and in Uncrowned's opinion, a Paul win would be the biggest upset in sports history.

It's a fight no one could've predicted 15 months ago when Joshua was getting ready to challenge Daniel Dubois for the IBF heavyweight title, and Paul was in the midst of his training camp to face 58-year-old Mike Tyson.

Even just six weeks prior, Paul was scheduled to share the ring with the WBA lightweight champion Gervonta "Tank" Davis, but issues outside of the squared circle forced Davis out, and Paul decided to replace him with somebody almost 100 pounds bigger on six weeks' notice.

It's nothing short of a circus — but that's what we've come to expect from Paul fights. So without further ado, let's break it all down.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Jake Paul, left, and Anthony Joshua face off during a news conference promoting their upcoming heavyweight boxing match, Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025, in Miami Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky) — Jake Paul, left, and Anthony Joshua face off Wednesday during a news conference promoting their upcoming heavyweight boxing match. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Heavyweight: Jake Paul (+550) vs. Anthony Joshua (-1000)

I do not see a path to victory for Paul — so if you want to boost your confidence in backing the upset, you might want to look elsewhere.

Joshua is much the bigger man in terms of height, weight and overall physical stature. Paul is a natural cruiserweight and fights a heavyweight close to his physical prime for the first time in the influencer's career. Paul has implemented a 245-pound weight limit on Joshua to try and counteract this, but I don't see it negating it heavily, as Joshua has weighed as low as 244.5 pounds in recent fights.

Joshua is the much more experienced boxer. Paul has had 14 fights, amateur and pro. Joshua had 43 amateur bouts and has stepped into a professional ring 32 times. "AJ" has been competing at a higher level than Paul for almost 15 years.

While some think Paul may be getting Joshua, 36, at the right time because of his loss to Dubois 15 months ago for the IBF title in a fight where AJ was floored four times, it was the power and jab of Dubois that Joshua couldn't handle. Paul will not enjoy any of the same success.

As the lighter, smaller — and theoretically quicker — man, Paul may look toward Joshua's two fights with Oleksandr Usyk for inspiration. But they will be nothing more than that. It is impossible to fathom Paul replicating anything Usyk did in those two fights, as the skill and experience level are so wide between them.

Perhaps the only advantages Paul has in this matchup is that his body hasn't gone through the wear and tear that Joshua's has and that he has been more active than AJ as of late. Paul is still a novice boxer who was defeated by Tommy Fury less than three years ago. He can defeat handpicked opponents at a certain level, but AJ is not only one step too far but many steps beyond.

If Paul refuses to engage and can hold on the inside, I can see this fight going a few rounds, but I expect the end result to be a Joshua victory by devastating knockout.

Pick: Joshua

Unified super featherweight championship: Alycia Baumgardner (-1400) vs. Leila Beaudoin (+650)

Alycia Baumgardner defends her unified super featherweight title against Leila Beaudoin in the night's co-main.

The bout will be contested over 12 three-minute rounds, rather than the 10 two-minute rounds used in women's boxing.

Baumgardner became the undisputed champion after defeating Elhem Mekhaled in February 2023 and made three title defenses before being forced to give up her WBC strap because the sanctioning body does not support three-minute rounds for women. She owns a win over Mikaela Mayer, Uncrowned's No. 8 pound-for-pound boxer.

Beaudoin has won four fights in a row since being upset by Elizabeth Chavez Espinoza in May 2023. In her last fight, she defeated Mekhaled by sixth-round TKO, bettering Baumgardner's win over the former interim champ.

Baumgardner has shown in previous fights that her defense is far from impenetrable. Against Mekhaled, it was the front-foot pressure that troubled the American at times, but her power and sharp shots kept her in front. Baumgardner faded late in that fight, and Mekhaled enjoyed success as Baumgardner slowed.

Pressure will be Beaudoin's best path to victory. The Canadian also has better footwork than some of Baumgardner's previous opponents and should be able to do a better job of avoiding being countered. Her TKO win over Mekhaled proves she has respectable power, which should earn Bumgardner's respect. Beaudoin's biggest issue will be dealing with the athleticism of Baumgardner.

I expect Beaudoin to be competitive throughout and enjoy late success — as other Baumgardner opponents have — but it will ultimately not be enough to win a decision.

Pick: Baumgardner

Cruiserweight: Anderson Silva (-225) vs. Tyron Woodley (+175)

Ex-UFC champions Anderson Silva and Tyron Woodley clash in a 195-pound catchweight contest over six rounds.

Silva has had just three boxing matches in the last 20 years. The Brazilian defeated former WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in 2021 by split decision and followed it up with a first-round knockout of ex-UFC light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz later that year. Silva, however, was defeated by Jake Paul over eight rounds in his last in-ring appearance in October 2022.

Woodley's two boxing matches were back-to-back bouts with Paul in 2021. Woodley dropped a split decision in August before being on the wrong end of a Knockout of the Year contender in their December rematch.

Silva, 50, is 7 years older than Woodley. Silva competed in an exhibition boxing match with Chael Sonnen in May 2024 — which appeared more like a sparring session. Despite it feeling like Silva was holding back in the exhibition, it was clear to see his skills were still very much intact.

When Woodley faced off against Paul the first time around, he was outboxed in the early rounds but came to life after hurting Paul in the fourth, while Paul struggled with the defensive skills and front-foot pressure presented by Silva in their fight.

Silva appears to be more skilled than Woodley, but Woodley is closer to his physical prime and has the advantage in speed and power. Woodley struggles with distance and has better success at mid- and close range. As he showed against Paul, one of Silva's biggest assets is how well he can fight at long range. In that fight, Paul was forced to come forward and try to back up Silva.

I expect Silva to outbox Woodley over the six-round distance, but with Silva's age, it is not clear how much he will have regressed since his last fight, so Woodley is a very live underdog.

Pick: Silva

Undisputed bantamweight title: Cherneka Johnson (-900) vs. Amanda Galle (+500)

Johnson puts her undisputed bantamweight titles on the line against IBO titleist Amanda Galle.

Johnson has recorded back-to-back stoppages so far in 2025, which included a ninth-round TKO win over Shurretta Metcalf to unify four bantamweight belts. Johnson has two career defeats: a decision loss to Ellie Scotney in 2023, and she fell short to Shannon O'Connell two years prior to that.

Galle is unbeaten in 13 fights but has never fought at an elite level. A pair of wins over three-time title challenger Niorkis Carreno proved to be a springboard for Galle to get a shot at a world title.

Stylistically, this fight has the potential to steal the show. We know exactly what we are getting with this one: two all-action fighters battling it out for all the belts. Johnson's jab and superior boxing skills should be the difference against Galle. Galle will have success at times in the pocket, but will be outclassed by Johnson at mid-range.

Pick: Johnson