Does it make sense?
While the MLB Hot Stove rumor mill continues to swirl with prospective free agent signings and trade deals, the San Diego Padres continue to be mentioned frequently with regard to major trades. Multiple members of the big league roster have been suggested as trade bait to bring in needed players or shed payroll.
While president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has categorically denied any of the rumors regarding Platinum Glove winner Fernando Tatis Jr., he has also indicated he is not interested in depleting the team’s dominant bullpen.
So who is a potential trade candidate?
According to multiple members of baseball’s media, Nick Pivetta is the candidate most likely to be dealt. As the best Padres starter in 2025, Pivetta had a breakout season after multiple seasons with the Red Sox. Pivetta had a 13-5 record with a 2.97 ERA in 181.2 innings pitched over 31 games started. He was healthy all season and set the tone with his bulldog and intense demeanor on the mound.
Why would the organization consider trading Pivetta?
After signing the right-hander at the start of Spring Training last season, the Padres announced a four-year/$55 million deal that gave Pivetta a $3 million signing bonus (spread over the first two seasons) and a $1 million salary for 2025. He is owed $20.5 million in 2026 with an opt out after the season. If he doesn’t opt out he will receive $14 million in 2027 with another opt out after that season. His final season would pay him $18 million.
Why should the Padres keep Pivetta?
Based on his performance last season, Pivetta is a bargain. It is also a done deal that he will opt out after 2026 if he comes even close to repeating that performance. The Padres will have gotten two seasons out of Pivetta for a bargain price. Then they would have to go into the 2027 offseason looking for a pitcher to replace him.
At 32 years old, Pivetta found something he was unable to find any other time in his career. With the Boston Red Sox after a trade in 2020-2024 and the Philadelphia Phillies from 2017 until traded in 2020, Pivetta bounced all over with his performance. Except for 2019 and 2020, Pivetta pitched more than 130 innings in all his seasons before coming to the Padres. His ERA fluctuated from 4.04 to 6.02 during those seasons.
In 2024, Pivetta featured his mid-90’s fastball for almost half the time with his curveball and sweeper used about 40 percent of the time and his cutter and slider used sparingly. After coming to San Diego, Pivetta ditched his slider and began throwing a sinker as his show-me pitch. He increased the use of his curve and decreased his sweeper use. There was not a significant change in velocity for his pitches after signing with the Padres.
The influence of pitching coach Ruben Niebla cannot be understated but Pivetta also credited playing in a consistent environment with a long-term contract that gave him confidence. There is no reason to think that Pivetta can’t repeat something close to the success of 2025, but if he does then he will almost certainly be gone from the Padres.
Why should the Padres trade Pivetta?
It has been reported repeatedly that there are many constraints on Preller this offseason. The team is up for sale, the payroll is restricted to the same range as last season and the increases in multiple long-term player contracts has eaten up most of the money saved with free agents that have left.
With minimal money to spend, the Padres can’t sign pricey free agents to fill the holes in the roster. What we have seen in free agency so far shows that even average pitchers are making big paydays. Due to the inflated contracts that have been signed, Preller has done nothing to acquire major league talent. As we get closer to Spring Training, the signings will increase as guys try to find homes for the 2026 season and will begin to lower their asking price.
This is probably part of the reason we have seen no movement with the Padres to this point. Mid-tier talent are the targets for Preller in this current free agent market. But at this point, mid-tier pitchers are getting $15-20 million/year deals and that is out of the Padres’ free agent budget.
It only makes sense that trades would be where Preller is focusing attention at this point in the Hot Stove season. With most of the core roster with no-trade or limited no-trade clauses, the likelihood is minimal that any of them are available on the trade market.
With the bullpen having depth, and more talent available in the minor league system, the relievers are options as additions to sweeten a trade deal. Relievers rarely headline big deals unless it is a coveted closer. The Padres need a player to headline a deal that will bring back major league-level talent that will fill holes in the rotation and a DH or bench player.
We have heard both Nick Pivetta and Ramón Laureano mentioned as trade chips in such a trade. My contention is that Pivetta makes more sense in such a deal. With the $20.5 million he is due to make this year, Pivetta could bring back controllable and young players as well as clear some payroll money that would allow Preller to sign another needed player or two. If he added a couple relievers to the deal it could sweeten the return. The two relievers who are making significant salaries, Yuki Matsui ($5.75 mil) and Wandy Peralta ($4.45 mil), would also help clear more payroll if a home could be found for them elsewhere.
Another option?
Laureano is a bargain at $6.5 million which makes him very attractive to other teams as a trade chip but would not clear as much payroll as moving Pivetta. Outside of these players, Jake Cronenworth has the most value with his defensive skillset and reasonable salary in today’s market. But Cronenworth is probably more valuable to the Padres than he would be as a trade piece as there is little talent behind him that could assume the flexibility he provides.
All-in-all, finding players to fill the Padres needs in the starting rotation, the bench and another bat for the offense will be a daunting task for Preller. With about eight weeks to go before Spring Training gets into full swing, there is still lots of talent on the market and time for the Padres to find solutions to their problems with the roster.
Once again, Preller will need to use his creativity and ability to assess talent in order to keep the Padres a contender in 2026. With the multiple needs of the team and the glaring holes the departing free agents created, uncertainty with the ownership and future of the organization will undoubtedly play a role in Preller’s success.
As the rumors swirl, Padres fans can only hope for the best and watch social media for updates on Preller’s maneuvers.
Category: General Sports
