Bills vs Browns prediction, keys as Josh Allen faces NFL's top pass defense

ORCHARD PARK - There may not be a player in the NFL who produces more wow moment highlights than Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

Week after week he does things that blow your mind, and you sometimes feel sorry for the dudes he just exploited and embarrassed.

Cleveland Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett does the same thing on the defensive side of the ball, and Allen is acutely aware that he’ll be in Garrett’s crosshairs Sunday afternoon when the two superstars meet at Huntington Bank Field, and Allen could potentially become involved in a history-making moment, one that he’d love to avoid.

“He’s an absolutely tremendous football player, one of the greatest of all time. I do like highlight tapes, but I don’t like being a part of other people’s highlight tapes,” said Allen, who is next up on Garrett’s destruction list in his pursuit of the NFL’s single-season sack record. If he gets to Allen twice, he will break the mark of 22.5 currently shared by JJ Watt (who will be at the stadium broadcasting the game for CBS) and Michael Strahan.

Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins, who will get the primary assignment because Garrett lines up mostly on his side, has faced Garrett only twice but despite the small sample size, Dawkins said Garrett is the best player he’s ever gone against. And right tackle Spencer Brown, who will surely have a few reps against Garrett, conceded that, “He’s gonna make plays, that’s a given. Hopefully we can prevent that but he’s a walking Hall of Famer out there.”

Brown then took a different tack than Allen regarding possibly being part of history should he be the one charged with allowing the potential record-breaking sack.

“I mean, the record might sting a little bit,” Brown said with a smile. “If it does happen on me, I guess it’d be like, ‘Yeah kids, that’s me right there getting absolutely blasted.’ Hopefully it doesn’t happen, but the win is the main focus.”

In addition to leading the league in sacks, Garrett is No. 1 among all edge rushers with a 27% pass rush win rate according to Pro Football Focus, and while his individual skills are paramount to his success, Bills guard O’Cyrus Torrence said being surrounded by other good players on defense also helps Garrett.

“I feel like the defense around him plays much better than people think,” Torrence said, and he’s right.

The Browns have the No. 1 pass defense in the league (169.0 yards per game), jumping ahead of the Bills last week; they are No. 2 behind only the Texans in total yards per game (279.1); they are No. 1 in tackles for lost yardage with 107; No. 1 in fewest first downs (16.4 per game); and No. 1 in third-down conversion rate (34.1%).

“I feel like you put so much effort into blocking him, but you forget that the other guys are covering it well enough to give him the time to get to the quarterback,” Torrence said. “And the D-linemen rushing the quarterback, making him run out his way, just all types of things like that. I feel like the defense plays well and they make him play better.”

The Browns are 3-11 and playing out the string, but their defense figures to give Buffalo problems, especially if it can get star CB Denzel Ward back from injury this week.

“We all know how great he is, but he’s not the only guy that they got,” Allen said. “They’ve got a really, really great unit, a really good secondary, two of the top corners in the league. They’ve got one of the best rookies playing their linebacker position. So yeah, you’ve got to be all hands on deck and it’s going to take every single guy to go out there and accomplish what we need to accomplish.”

Here’s my preview of the game:

The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Shedeur Sanders

The Browns have used nine different starting offensive line combinations due to an injury list that the Bills wouldn’t bat an eye at given the turmoil their defense has gone through. In the four starts Sanders has made, he’s had three different combinations in front of him, and the last two did not include All-Pro guard Wyatt Teller who may also miss this game.

Sanders has been sacked 13 times on just 160 dropbacks, and because of the stress he’s been under he has put the ball in harms way with six interceptions and a turnover worthy play rate of 6.0% which is tied for the highest in the NFL, while his average time to throw of 3.39 seconds is also the highest in the league.

“I just got to get more completions,” Sanders said matter-of-factly. “And even whenever we’re down or anything, I can’t press; I just gotta remain having those mental notes to myself. Just work within the game and just keep driving the ball, get first downs. There’s no excuse when it comes to that.”

It has truly been a baptism under fire for Prime Time’s kid, and making it more difficult is that similarly to the Bills, the Browns are getting nothing from their WR corps. Inconsistent Jerry Jeudy leads the team with just 40 catches for 519 yards, and the next-best producer is Cedric Tillman with 18 receptions for 197 yards.

As he is wont to do, coach Sean McDermott heaped praise on Sanders and said he’s a, “Good young player, off to a great start.” Obviously that’s a bit of a stretch. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski praised Allen, and nothing he said was a stretch.

“Yeah, where do you start?” Stefanski said when he was asked about the difficulties in defending Allen. “I think he’s very good at all of it. Whether it’s on schedule, the ability to make the throw to every area of the field, whether it’s off schedule, to buy time and throw the ball to every area of the field, or run – and when he runs, he’s like a fullback out there. So, really no weakness in his game.”

Allen has been tremendous in the last two games and he has forged his way back into the MVP conversation alongside Matthew Stafford of the Rams and perhaps Drake Maye of the Patriots. He is now tied with Stafford for total touchdowns (passing and rushing) with 37 and he sits second in the league with a 70.0 completion percentage behind only Maye. This about as a big a quarterback mismatch as there can be in the NFL.

Buffalo Bills who should impact the game

▶ WR Joshua Palmer: Isn’t it about time that the biggest 2025 offensive free agent signing do something to help the Bills? This has been a bust of a first year for Palmer, due in part to his ankle injury, but when he has played - before and now after the injury which happened in Week 6 - he has done virtually nothing. This is a game where Allen will need someone to step up as the Browns have not allowed a 300-yard passer for 42 straight games, the longest streak since the Colts did that in 52 games from 2005-08.

▶ LT Dion Dawkins: Garrett has lined up on the offensive left side about 80% of his snaps this season, so Dawkins - who missed practice Thursday with illness but is expected to play - is going to have a long day. Outside of the Steelers game when the Bills used chipping RBs and TEs to help reserve OT Alec Anderson against TJ Watt, they don’t do much of that, especially when Dawkins and Brown are playing. But remember what happened in Houston when Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter worked Buffalo’s tackles for a combined 4.5 sacks? Dawkins and Brown were generally left on their own, but they’re going to need help against Garrett.

▶ LB Matt Milano: He looked like he was on his last legs for most of the season, but in the past couple weeks he has flashed some of the old Milano, flying around making plays including two sacks last week. The Browns will try to exploit Buffalo’s run defense which has allowed the most rushing TDs in the league (23), ranks 31st in yards allowed per carry (5.4), and has yielded the second-most runs (57) of at least 10 yards. Milano and LB Shaq Thompson will need to overcome the deficiencies up front and keep the Browns in unfavorable down and distance which would present big problems for Sanders.

▶ S Cole Bishop: He has had a nice sophomore season, but last week wasn’t a great performance as his tendency to take poor angles against the run showed up again. While the Browns’ passing game is mostly anemic, one thing Sanders has done is throw a decent deep ball. He has nine completions of at least 30 yards, four of those 50 or more, so Bishop, who is occasionally the single high safety, will need to be sharp to prevent those chunk plays. If the Browns are forced to sustain drives, that’s not good for their chances.

Cleveland Browns who should impact the game

▶ RB Quinshon Judkins: The rookie has had a solid season, but the offensive line issues have also hurt his production as his success rate of 40.5% ranks 47th among all RBs. He has been hurt by too many stuffed runs as his tackle for lost yardage percentage of 10.81 is fifth-highest among the 23 RBs with at least 150 carries. By comparison, James Cook’s 4.8% is second-lowest.

▶ TE Harold Fannin: He leads the Browns with 66 receptions for 667 yards and four TDs, and he is one catch away from setting a franchise record for most by a Browns rookie. Because Cleveland’s WR group has been so underwhelming, Fannin is vital to any passing success Sanders might enjoy, but he’ll be challenged in this game because the Bills continue to rank No. 1 in the NFL in fewest yards allowed to opposing tight ends at 32.7 yards per game.

▶ LB Carson Schwesinger: Yet another member of the Browns outstanding 2025 draft class, he was the NFL’s defensive rookie of the month for November and he is in line to win the league’s defensive rookie of the year award. He ranks seventh in the NFL with 125 tackles (most by a Browns rookie since the team was reborn in 1999), he has two interceptions, and 10 tackles for lost yardage including 1.5 sacks. He has been in double digits for tackles in each of the last five games which is the longest current streak in the league.

▶ DT Mason Graham: This completes my 4-for-4 rookie spotlight as Cleveland’s highest 2025 pick at No. 5 overall has also had a terrific first year. You look at this player list and it’s clear the Browns could have a bright future if Sanders - or someone - can give them competent QB play. This is one heck of a rookie class and Graham is second on the team to Garrett with 31 QB pressures and he’s fourth with 25 stops, defined as tackles that cause a failed play for the offense.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 30, Browns 10

There are no givens in the NFL. Crazy things happen all the time and you see moribund teams rise up and pull off stunning upsets, but I can’t see that being the case in this game. The Bills are the much better team with a lot on the line because they have to win their last three to have a realistic chance of stealing the division from New England. That’s not a good recipe for the Browns who can’t wait for this latest nightmare season to be over.

This needs to be a day where Buffalo jumps on Cleveland early, builds a comfortable lead and coasts back to Orchard Park at 11-4. Since blowing out the Panthers 40-9 on Oct. 26, the Bills have been in a struggle to the death in every game except their blowout loss to the Dolphins and their romp over Pittsburgh, but even in that game, they trailed 7-3 at the half. They need a relatively easy one, and this should be it.

Buffalo Bills 2025 schedule

• Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 7 vs. Baltimore Ravens, W 41-40.
• Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 14 at New York Jets, W 30-10.
• Week 3: Thursday, Sept. 18 vs. Miami Dolphins, W 31-21.
• Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 28, vs. New Orleans Saints, W 31-19
• Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 5 vs. New England Patriots, L 20-23
• Week 6: Monday, Oct. 13 at Atlanta Falcons, L 14-24
• Week 7: Bye Week
• Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 26 at Carolina Panthers, W 40-9.
• Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, W 28-21.
• Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 9 at Miami Dolphins, L 13-30.
• Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 16 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, W 44-32
• Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 20 at Houston Texans, L 19-23.
• Week 13: Sunday, Nov. 30 at Pittsburgh Steelers, W 26-7.
• Week 14, Sunday, Dec. 7: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, W 39-34.
• Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 14 at New England Patriots, W 35-31
• Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 21 at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
• Week 17: Dec. 28 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
• Week 18: Jan. 3-4, vs. New York Jets, TBD

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at [email protected], and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Browns prediction as Josh Allen faces NFL's top pass defense