Josh Allen, Bills must overcome road woes to win at Cleveland in Week 16

The Buffalo Bills are 10-4, and after defeating the New England Patriots 35-31 last week, they have a legitimate, though slight, chance at winning the AFC East. The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, have already been eliminated from the playoffs, meaning it will be a second straight year without a postseason berth for head coach Kevin Stefanski’s charges.

All signs point to a blowout this weekend, but the Bills have dropped some head-scratchers so far this year. They were pounded by the Miami Dolphins when Miami was just 2-7. They were soundly defeated by the Atlanta Falcons. Neither of those teams will make the playoffs, so we can’t assume that the Bills will merely show up and be able to win the game.

Buffalo needs to avoid the let-down following an emotional divisional win. They also need to avoid the trap of looking ahead to a home date with the defending Super Bowl champs, who come to Highmark Stadium in Week 17. Buffalo needs to take care of business right now, and with a win, they can not only keep pace with New England in the AFC East, but they can also clinch a playoff berth for the seventh-straight season.

In order for Buffalo to come out on top this week, they’ll need their top performers to lock in and do their job. Here are five Bills to watch this week in Cleveland.
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QB Josh Allen

The easiest way for Buffalo to lose this weekend would be for them to have offensive drives that end in turnovers. In Bills victories this season, Allen has 19 touchdown passes, 12 rushing touchdowns, and four interceptions. He has one fumble in those 10 wins, but he did not lose that fumble. In Buffalo’s four losses, however, Allen has six touchdown passes, six interceptions, and four fumbles, two of which he’s lost. He has zero rushing touchdowns in the four losses, as well.

As bad as Cleveland has been this season, they have the No. 3 overall defense in terms of yardage allowed, and the No. 1 passing defense in terms of yardage allowed. That doesn’t bode well for a Bills team that has struggled against squads with corners that can press Buffalo’s wideouts. Throw in defensive end Myles Garrett, and the offense will have to focus on executing at a high level. That’s not necessarily news — after all, the Browns are an NFL club — but when the records are this lopsided, there is sometimes a tendency to assume a game could be a walk in the park.

Allen needs to take what the defense gives him, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady needs to continue mixing in designed plays for his running backs in the passing game. That should keep the Bills ahead of the sticks, and if Allen takes the easy money, it will help him to avoid turnovers.

RB/KR Ray Davis

The NFL’s leader in kickoff return average has earned the “slash” before his name. Davis has just 33 carries this season, but his contribution as a returner can’t be overstated. Last week against New England, Davis gave Buffalo short fields on three of their drives, and two of those drives ended in touchdowns.

To borrow a phrase from head coach Sean McDermott, the special teams can help the offense by playing good, complementary football by continuing to provide good field position. In turn, the defense can help the offense by winning early and forcing the Browns to punt the ball away in their own end.

Davis is averaging over 30 yards per kickoff return. He’s a 32.4 yards per return entering the game. Davis can also help to take the heavy workload off of James Cook III, who has 271 rushing attempts this season. It’s hard to say that Cook should come off the field, as he’s been so good that the Bills have relied on him for a career-high 61.2% of the team’s offensive snaps.

But, we’re at a point in the season where those doing the heavy-lifting could benefit from some monitoring of their usage. I’d like to see some more of Davis this week, and hopefully the Bills can race out to a big enough lead where the team will feel comfortable giving him some more touches on offense.

TE Dawson Knox

Buffalo’s TE2-in-name-only has at least three catches in four straight games and five out of the team’s last six. He scored two touchdowns last week, just days after his wife gave birth to their daughter. He leads the team in tight end snaps this season, appearing on 60.9% of the team’s overall offensive snaps.

With tight end Dalton Kincaid once again not practicing thanks to a knee issue this week, it’s fairly likely that Knox will see additional snaps and targets once again. He and rookie tight end Jackson Hawes have done a fantastic job this season in both the passing game and the running game.

It makes sense that Knox is someone that Josh Allen would look to — after all, he is the longest-tenured pass-catcher on the roster — and it wouldn’t surprise me if Knox continued his hot streak this week. He has nine catches for 130 yards and two scores over the last two weeks.

Unlike Buffalo’s last two opponents, the Patriots and the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland has been pretty solid against opposing tight ends this season. They’ve allowed 67 catches for 720 yards and five scores. Considering that Cleveland has allowed fewer receptions by receivers (122) than any other NFL team, though, it’s imperative that Buffalo’s tight ends do something in the passing game. Knox is going to need to be golden this week.

DE Greg Rousseau

This feels like a game where Rousseau randomly has multiple sacks and a forced fumble. Perhaps it’s my thinking that rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders is going to hold the ball, scrambling while trying to make plays. Maybe it’s just an assumption that Rousseau has to have a big game eventually, and Sunday is as good a time as any. Regardless of the why, the result is what matters.

I have a weird feeling about Rousseau this week, and I think that head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich will be able to fool the young quarterback early and often this week. That should give Buffalo’s pass rush time to work, and Rousseau is going to benefit. Sanders is a playmaker, and he has a ton of confidence in his ability to make something out of nothing.

Buffalo’s defense, while not an elite unit, can still disguise coverages and cause havoc. I expect some weird looks early, and Rousseau will create a turnover that kicks the game off the right way.

K Michael Badgley

A kicker? Yeah, I’m intrigued to see what the new guy does. He’s not on the 53-man roster, and practice-squad elevations won’t come out until Saturday, but we know that Matt Prater is out, and we also can assume that Ray Davis is going to stick to returning kickoffs, not performing them. So, it should be Badgley making his Bills debut this weekend.

He can be elevated three times before the Bills would need to sign him to the 53-man roster, and perhaps coincidentally, there are only three games left in the regular season. As long as he isn’t a disaster, all should be well. Here’s hoping that the Bills don’t need Badgley to do what Prater did in his team debut back in Week One when he kicked a game-winner against the Baltimore Ravens as time expired.