Lions playoff picture: What Packers vs. Bears means for NFC standings

The NFL has expanded to Saturday for Week 16, and it features two games that will have a big impact on the NFC playoff standings. The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles face off at 5 p.m. ET, and the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers at 8:20 p.m. ET.

For the Detroit Lions, who are currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, Saturday’s games will certainly have an impact on their postseason chances.

So let’s look at the impact of each game, and decide who you should be rooting for. But before we do, a reminder of the current NFC playoff standings.

NFC North standings

1. Bears: 10-4
2. Packers: 9-4-1
3. Lions: 8-6
4. Vikings*: 6-8

*Eliminated from playoff contention

Current NFC playoff picture

Division leaders:

1. x- Seahawks: 12-3
2. Bears: 10-4
3. Eagles: 9-5
4. Buccaneers: 7-7

Wild Card standings (top three advance)

5. x- Rams: 11-4
6. 49ers: 10-4
7. Packers: 9-4-1
8. Lions: 8-6
9. Panthers: 7-7
10. Cowboys: 6-7-1

x = clinched playoff spot

Okay, now let’s look at the impact of each game on Saturday.

Eagles (9-5) at Commanders (4-10) — 5 p.m. ET — FOX

Who to root for: Commanders

In all honesty, this game doesn’t matter much. Looking at the NFC East, the Cowboys’ only path to making the playoffs is by winning the division by winning out and making it at 9-7-1 while the Eagles lose out (9-8). That doesn’t impact the Lions, unless you’d rather have Dallas in the playoffs. There are zero scenarios in which the NFC East sends two teams to the playoffs, so this game is irrelevant for Detroit’s chances to make the playoffs.

However, if you are holding out hopes the Lions still win the division, an Eagles loss would help in terms of seeding. Philadelphia has the tiebreaker against Detroit, so in order for the Lions to finish with a better seed among division winners than Philadelphia, they need to finish with a better overall record.

Packers (9-4-1) at Bears (10-4) — 8:20 p.m. ET — FOX

Who to root for: Packers

Quite simply, if the Packers beat the Bears, the Lions, once again, hold their own playoff fate. If the Lions win out—which would include a Week 18 win over the Bears—it would move Detroit to 11-6 on the season. If the Bears lose this week against the Packers and in the final game against the Lions, their best possible record would be 11-6, as well. And because, in this scenario, the Lions would have the season sweep over the Bears, they’d get in via tiebreaker.

A Packers win would also open up an opportunity for the Lions to go 2-1 in their final three and still make the playoffs. If the Bears lose this game and next week against the 49ers, Detroit would only need to win one of their next two games (Steelers, Vikings) and then beat the Bears to clinch a playoff spot. In that scenario, the Bears and Lions are both 10-7 with Detroit’s head-to-head tiebreaker being the deciding factor.

So in short, here are the playoff scenarios after a Packers win.

Lions playoff scenarios if Packers beat Bears:

1. Lions win out
OR
2. Lions go 1-1 in next two games, beat Bears AND Bears lose to 49ers

But what if the Bears beat the Packers?

Detroit’s playoff odds, per the NYT Playoff Predictor, drop from 27% to just 22% if the Bears win. Detroit would not have their fate in their own hands, needing help in Week 17 and maybe Week 18 to advance. Additionally, it would mean the only way the Lions would advance with a 10-7 record is if the Packers also lose their remaining two games (vs. Ravens, at Vikings)

However, it would open up a shot for the Lions to somewhat realistically still win the NFC North. In this scenario—combined with a Lions win over the Steelers—the Lions would find themselves two games behind the Bears and one behind the Packers. So here’s that path:

Lions would win NFC North if:

• Lions win out (Steelers, Vikings, Bears) AND
• Bears lose to 49ers next week AND
• Packers lose to either Ravens or Vikings

In that scenario, the Lions and Bears would be 11-6 while the Packers would finish 10-6-1 or 9-7-1. Again, the head-to-head tiebreaker works in Detroit’s favor over Chicago.

But if the goal is to just make the playoffs, here are the postseason scenarios for Detroit to make it after a theoretical Bears win on Saturday.

4 different Lions playoff scenarios if Bears beat Packers:

1. Lions win out AND 49ers lose out (at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks)
2. Lions win out AND Packers lose to Ravens or Vikings
3. Lions win out AND Bears lose to 49ers
4. Lions go 1-1 in next two games, beat Bears AND Packers lose to Ravens AND Vikings

NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

Just as a reminder, the worst-case scenario is the Bears and Packers tieing on Saturday. If that happens, the only way the Lions can make the playoffs is if they win out and they’d need additional help, too.

If Packers and Bears tie, the Lions make the playoffs only if…

• The Lions win out AND
  • 1. Packers lose to Ravens AND Vikings OR
  • 2. Bears lose to 49ers OR
  • 3. 49ers lose out (Colts, Bears, Seahawks)