Panthers playoff picture: Where Carolina stands after Week 16 vs. Buccaneers

The Panthers needed a win today to solidify their contention for the NFC South title and the fourth seed in the NFC for the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs. They scraped that win off of the skin of their teeth and now only have to repeat the process against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa in Week 18 to stamp their ticket.

That isn’t the only way they are going to make the playoffs, but it is the most likely way. Below are the Panthers remaining scenarios for winning the NFC South. Perhaps the biggest takeaway from today is that the Panthers cannot be eliminated from the playoffs until the last week of the season.

Panthers finish 10-7

• They’re in.

Panthers finish 9-8

• If they sweep the Bucs then they’re in.
• If they split with the Bucs AND the Bucs beat the Dolphins then they’re out.
• If they split with the Bucs AND they beat the Seahawks AND the Bucs lose to the Dolphins then they’re in.

Panthers finish 8-8-1 or 9-7-1

• Any scenario where the Panthers finish with a 1-0-1 record against the Bucs sees Carolina win the NFC South and enter the playoffs.
• If they split with the Bucs AND tie the Seahawks AND the Bucs lose to Miami then they are in.
• If they split with the Bucs AND tie the Seahawks AND the Bucs beat Miami then they are out.

Panthers finish 8-9

• If the Bucs sweep then the Panthers are out.
• If they split AND the Bucs beat Miami AND the Atlanta Falcons lose one more game then the Panthers are out
• If they split AND the Bucs lose to the Dolphins AND the Falcons win out then the Panthers are in

Panthers finish 7-10

• They’re out

NFC South standings

1. Carolina Panthers 8-7
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-8
3. Atlanta Falcons 5-9
4. New Orleans Saints 5-10

Current NFC playoff picture

1. Seattle Seahawks 12-3
2. Chicago Bears 11-4
3. Philadelphia Eagles 10-5
4. Carolina Panthers 8-7
5. Los Angeles Rams 11-4
6. San Francisco 49ers 10-4
7. Green Bay Packers 9-5-1
8. Detroit Lions 8-6
9. Minnesota Vikings 7-8 (eliminated)
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-8

NFC teams eliminated from playoff contention

• Minnesota Vikings
• Atlanta Falcons
• Arizona Cardinals
• New Orleans Saints
• Washington Commanders
• New York Giants
• Dallas Cowboys