NY Giants’ defense is bad, but might be better than the Raiders’ offense

The New York Giants have a real chance to come away from this Sunday’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders with their third victory of the season.

Whether that would be in the long-term interest of the franchise is a matter for debate amongst fans, but the potential is there against a Raiders team that has struggled even more than the Giants have this year.

That said, the Giants can’t afford to take the Raiders lightly. Las Vegas is coming off of a game in which they very nearly pulled off the upset against the Houston Texans. Houston doesn’t feature a particularly complex defensive scheme, but they are exceedingly well coached and seldom have communication or assignment breakdowns. And yet, the Raiders were still able to move the ball and score points.

The Giants should have the advantage from a personnel standpoint. But what can the Giants’ defense expect from the Raiders’ offense?

Will the Raiders run?

The Giants have had the worst run defense in the NFL this year — that isn’t really up to debate. Even when they perform well-enough on a down-to-down basis, their defense has had a tendency to shatter and give up massive plays in big moments.

They played better against the Minnesota Vikings, holding them to 3.7 yards per carry on 31 rushing attempts last week. The Giants’ defensive line did a better job of disrupting behind the line of scrimmage, while the second level players did a good job of coming up to fill gaps and make tackles.

However, we should also note that the defense still gave up big plays on the ground, with runs of 15 and 12 yards. In those cases we saw the familiar problem of individual defenders put on an island while other defenders were either out of position or too far away to rally to the ball.

It would make quite a bit of sense for the Raiders to go run-heavy this game. After all, Pete Carroll is noted for his affinity for the run game, they drafted Ashton Jeanty with the sixth overall pick, and the Giants struggle to consistently defend the run.

On the flip side, however, is the fact that the Raiders have the worst running game in the NFL. They’re 32nd in rush attempts (21.1 per game), 32nd in yardage (75.7 per game), 32nd in touchdowns (5), and 32nd in EPA added on the ground (-51.05).

The Raiders’ rushing frequency makes a certain amount of sense given how poor their offense is overall. They’re 32nd in scoring (14.5 points per game), and are also only 21st in pass attempts (30.6 per game) despite rarely running the ball. The Raiders are 32nd in first downs (23o total, 148 passing and 57 rushing, and 25 by penalty), so they also struggle mightily to sustain drives.

Schematically, the Raiders seem to favor outside zone runs, as well as make use of pre-snap motion. They also like to use sweeps to scheme carries for their wide receivers — most notably Tre Tucker who is their only player to average more than 5.0 yards per carry. The edges of the Giants’ defense have been vulnerable to attack, particularly when edge defenders attack into the backfield and second level players fail to come up and provide run support or edge contain.

That brings us back to the question: Will the Raiders try to lean into their anemic rushing game in order to attack the weakness of the Giants’ defense? Or will they shy away from running the ball in favor of attacking in other ways?

This could wind up being a showdown between a moveable object and a resistible object.

Can the Giants attack the Las Vegas offensive line?

The other aspect of the Raiders’ struggles on the ground is their offensive line. Their line has taken a step backward since both Jermaine Eluemunor and Carmen Bricillo left Las Vegas for New York. It also doesn’t help that they have three linemen — most notably starting LT Kolton Miller — on the injured reserve.

The Raiders are 22nd in both pass block and run block win rate, but their line struggles in several aspects.

In the middle, they lack significant anchor, with their interior linemen consistently losing one-on-one battles and being pushed into the backfield. That, in turn, clogs Geno Smith’s sight lines and forces often forces him to work in a condensed area and prevents him from stepping into his throws. They can also be vulnerable to speed through the A or B-gap, which is a potential opportunity given how devastating Abdul Carter can be when rushing up the middle as an off-ball linebacker.

On the outside, their offensive tackles can be prone to oversetting when faced with speed to the outside. That further exacerbates the line’s issues in the B-gap and can make them particularly vulnerable to inside moves. Given the Giants’ raw speed off the edge with Carter and Brian Burns, this is a real opportunity to attack Geno Smith and disrupt the Raiders’ offense before it even gets going.

Whether the Giants’ pass rush allows them to disrupt behind the line of scrimmage could be the key to preventing the Raiders from attacking the Giants’ depleted linebacking corps.

Matching up over the middle

The Giants caught a tremendous break when the Raiders placed star second-year tight end Brock Bowers on the injured reserve. Bowers has been battling injury all season long and only eclipsed 100 receiving yards twice this season. That said, he’s still a dangerous receiver thanks to his route running acumen and ball skills. He only had 33 yards against the Houston Texans, but caught everything thrown to him — including a touchdown.

The Giants have long struggled against talented tight ends, and Bowers posed a significant threat.

That said, the Giants’ linebackers and safeties aren’t out of the woods yet. The Raiders still have No.2 tight end Michael Mayer, as well as running back Ashton Jeanty as pass catchers to match up against Bobby Okereke and friends.

Meyer has been eclipsed by Bowers, but was a highly-touted tight end as well. He set Notre Dame’s record for receptions at tight end (passing Tyler Eifert) and was drafted with the 36th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He hasn’t lived up to his draft status with 71 receptions for 652 yards (9.2 per reception) and 3 touchdowns since 2023. However, he has versatility and is a capable blocker, with adequate route running and sticky hands.

Jeanty, meanwhile, is already a more significant threat in the pass game. The rookie running back is third on the team in both targets and receptions, as well as tied for second in receiving touchdowns. Jeanty isn’t a speed demon, however he has excellent vision and contact balance, as well as reliable hands. Jeanty only caught one pass against the Texans, but it went for a 60-yard touchdown. All told, the rookie had 188 yards and two touchdowns against Houston, who boast a defense that is athletic and arguably the best-coached and most assignment sound defense in the NFL.

The Raiders also understand how to use play-action to manipulate defenses, and use route combinations to attack safeties as linebackers step up to defend the run. The combination of route running savvy from Tyler Lockett and Jack Bech, as well as Tre Tucker’s speed in the open field, makes deep crossing routes a legitimate threat if the Raiders are able to slow down the pass rush long enough for Geno Smith to get the ball out.

Overall, the Giants’ defense should have the advantage in this matchup, but they’ll need to play with consistent discipline.