How much will the Reds need both in 2026?
It was announced earlier in December that Aaron Harang would be inducted into the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame during the summer of 2026. His spate of brilliance came during the mid-aughts era of Reds history, a time when he became both the first pitcher in National League history to lead the league in both wins and strikeouts in the same year and not win the Cy Young Award, but also logged a 4th place finish one year later.
His 2005 season can be, in hindsight, considered his breakout campaign, a year in which he logged 211.2 IP and 4.5 bWAR. In any era, that’s borderline ace stuff, and he hadn’t even peaked yet.
Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz, Brandon Claussen, Luke Hudson, Randy Keisler, and Elizardo Ramirez combined to make 126 starts that year next to Harang’s 32, and that six-some combined to post -3.5 bWAR. The dearth of pitching depth behind Harang is what torpedoed that entire era of Cincinnati Reds baseball, a roster construction epidemic that was endemic for decades within this organization, who had – even when insanely successful – been built on hitting first, second, and third with starting pitching deep down the pecking order of priority.
Congrats to Aaron, by the way. It’s a well deserved honor while also being a timely reminder of just how different things used to be on the Reds roster. Nowadays, it’s almost the inverse – they’re as deep in starting pitching as they’ve perhaps ever been while desperately on the hunt for someone, anyone who can hit a line drive over a hundred miles per hour.
Even after losing both Nick Martinez and Zack Littell into the realm of free agency, Cincinnati’s potential rotation for the 2026 season looks stout. It’s headlined by the likes of Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, a pair of All Stars who have consistently shown themselves to be among the few elite pitchers on the senior circuit (even if they go about their craft in vastly different ways). Nick Lodolo, a former 1st round pick and top prospect himself, has flashed ability just as elite as those two, and his 2025 season was his most complete to date. Brady Singer has served as an absolute rock and innings-eater wherever he has been, and Cincinnati’s where he calls home once again. Then there’s Chase Burns, whose arm has as much upside as any we’ve seen around here since perhaps Aroldis Chapman, though Greene himself would probably like a word in that conversation.
Here we are on the cusp of 2026, a playoff appearance in 2025 freshly under their belt, and we aren’t even talking about their former 1st rounder from 2023. The guy who Baseball America ranked as the #26 prospect in the game after he dazzled at the big league level for 30.2 IP at the tail end of 2024. If the Reds had a player with that profile in the era of Harang, we’d have already crowned him the next great hope of the entire franchise.
It’s a similar story for one Brandon Williamson, who’s already been a) a 2nd round pick, b) a Top 100 prospect in his own right, c) a huge piece of a major trade, and d) a pitcher who’s thrown to a 106 ERA+ across 131.1 IP at the big league level! In how many eras would a player with that profile be an afterthought heading into an upcoming season? In those cavernous mid-aughts rotation, he’d be the team’s #2 starter on paper at this juncture of the winter!
Pitching, as we all now know, is a far cry from where it was two decades ago. From 2004 through 2008, Harang averaged 204.2 IP per season. Over the last five seasons, no more than three pitchers have had single-seasons with more than 204.2 IP in any year. The attrition rate at this point in MLB history is absurd, and depth of any variety is a luxury – let alone at the level the Reds have built theirs to.
In other words, being #6 or #7 on the team’s depth chart no longer means what it used to. These days, it means just as much that you might only have 100 innings in your arm for the season than it does that there are five starters on the roster better than you, and that’s where Lowder and Williamson find themselves right now. With both fresh off lost 2024 seasons – Lowder to a combo of forearm and oblique issues, Williamson due to Tommy John recovery – the Reds are going to do everything they can to slow-play these two until they are absolutely needed, and ‘absolutely needed’ they will most certainly be at some point down the road.
The Reds have an envious stockpile, and it’s as talented as its ever been. Still, it’s pretty easy to see why Nick Krall & Co. are hesitant to move any of that in deals to acquire hitting, as odds are they’ll need to tap into that depth more often than they’d ever let on. It’s a well-built arsenal that’s designed for just how much the times have changed across the Major League pitching landscape, one that evolved into a literal arms race where the Reds are positioned quite well.
Hell, I didn’t even make it to Chase Petty!
Category: General Sports
