Where is Louisville PG Mikel Brown Jr. in 2026 NBA Draft projections?

Mikel Brown Jr. is well on his way to becoming the first one-and-done player in Louisville basketball history.

Brown, a 6-foot-5 point guard from Orlando, Florida, wasted no time in establishing himself as the straw that stirs Pat Kelsey's uptempo offense. For every learning moment the 19-year-old has had thus far while acclimating to the Division I ranks, there's been an eye-popping display of potential.

Through his first 10 games with the Cardinals, Brown was second in scoring with 16.6 points across 27 minutes per on 38.1% shooting (26.8% from 3-point range). He also chipped in three rebounds and a team-high 5.1 assists against 2.4 turnovers — his 32.9% assist rate, according to KenPom.com, ranked among the top 60 in the country.

Brown was scratched from a Dec. 16 loss at then-No. 23 Tennessee due to a lower back injury. But, against the other four high-major opponents on UofL's nonconference schedule, he ranked in the 97th and 92nd percentiles nationally in points (20.5) and assists (4.3) per game, respectively — according to CBBAnalytics.com.

If Brown keeps at this pace, he'll break the Louisville record for most points scored by a freshman during a season before the ACC Tournament tips off. The high-water mark is 510 — set in 39 games by the program's first and only No. 1 overall NBA draft pick, Pervis Ellison (1985-86).

"He's that superstar — 8 million stars next to his name, his draft status and all that stuff — and you can coach that dude hard," Kelsey said after Brown went for 16 points and three assists during a Dec. 13 win over Memphis. "... He's like, 'Yup, coach — gotcha. You're right.' And then he comes out at the end of the game, gives me a big hug and smiles.

"He's a special, special kid. Y'all know he's a special player; he's a special kid, as well."

As the calendar flips to 2026, where does Brown stand in the latest NBA draft projections? Are there any other Cards in the mix? Here's a look at what the talent evaluators are saying:

NBA mock drafts: Where is Louisville basketball's Mikel Brown Jr. in 2026 projections?

The first mock draft of the 2025-26 season from USA TODAY Sports (published Nov. 26) had Brown off the board at No. 3 overall to the Atlanta Hawks. Here's what NBA reporter Lorenzo Reyes had to say about the pick:

"If the Hawks opt to move on from Trae Young at some point, Brown presents an ideal replacement. A point guard with decent size built very much in a style similar to Young, Brown has excellent scoring instincts and range — and isn't afraid to draw contact to get to the line."

More recent mock drafts have Brown going a bit later. SB Nation's Ricky O'Donnell, for example, had him as the eighth overall pick — to the Dallas Mavericks — as of Dec. 18.

Here's a look at what other experts are saying:

The Athletic: No. 5, Sacramento Kings (Dec. 4)

"Brown's best flashes have been those of a top-five pick, and it helps that his best game came against Kentucky in front of numerous scouts," Sam Vecenie wrote. "... Scouts love Brown’s blend of explosiveness going toward the rim mixed with his skill level and live-dribble passing ability. He will need to iron out his efficiency going toward the rim, though."

Bleacher Report: No. 9 Portland Trail Blazers (Dec. 16)

"You get the sense he could take over at any minute, though he's struggled to make shots with consistency so far," Jonathan Wasserman wrote. "... He clearly has the ability to catch fire; and his handle and quickness help earn him uncontested layups, trips to the free-throw line and assist opportunities.

"Brown may turn off certain scouts who don't love his shot selection, but there will also be those who'll buy into the idea that the shotmaking firepower he possesses should outweigh the streakiness."

CBS Sports: No. 6, Sacramento Kings (Dec. 10)

"This may be a situation where the best player available also winds up being the best roster fit for the Kings, who desperately need help at point guard," Kyle Boone wrote. "Brown's a do-it-all guard who can score from anywhere and plays with poise and pizazz with the ball in his hands."

ESPN: No. 5 (Dec. 16)

"His ability to consistently create clean looks at the rim off the dribble creates exciting possibilities," Jeremy Woo wrote. "Brown was viewed as a steady playmaker in high school, and scouts are hoping to see him create more in the halfcourt for teammates as the season goes on.

"To reinforce the perception around his dynamic shooting, Brown will need to actually make more shots — he's shooting just 38.1% from the field. The degree of difficulty of many of his looks doesn't always help. His lack of impact defensively is also a concern. But given the rarity and upside of his skill set, there's major upside if Brown can put it all together."

NBA mock drafts: Are there any other Louisville basketball players on the board in 2026?

As of Dec. 18, Ryan Conwell was the only other Louisville player appearing on 2026 NBA mock drafts.

The 6-4 senior guard was the Cards' top scorer through 11 games with 19.6 points on 42.3% shooting (40.6% from 3) in addition to 4.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.2 steals across 27.8 minutes per.

Woo had Conwell at No. 62 in ESPN's list of top 100 prospects published Dec. 16. Wasserman had him as the 34th overall pick, to the Kings, in Bleacher Report's mock draft released the same day.

"On pace for a third consecutive season above 40% from 3, Ryan Conwell could have enough positional size and shotmaking skill for a shooting specialist role," Wasserman wrote. "His catch-and-shoot numbers remain elite going back to his time at Xavier, but, at Louisville, he is also getting to the free-throw line 6.1 times per game."

NBADraft.net had Conwell going 59th to the Detroit Pistons in a mock draft published Dec. 5. For what it's worth, this website had Brown as the fourth overall pick — to the Indiana Pacers.

Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at [email protected] and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Mikel Brown Jr. NBA draft projection 2026, Louisville basketball stats