The Lions’ offensive regression in 2025 was bigger than you think

It’s obvious one of the major problems of the 2025 Detroit Lions was their defense. On a weekly basis, the Lions were giving up explosive play after explosive play, and in key moments, Detroit’s defense just couldn’t get off the field. It only seemed to get worse, as even the Lions’ normally-steady run defense collapsed down the stretch.

The conversation is a little more nuanced around the Lions’ 2025 offense. Without former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and All-Pro center Frank Ragnow, it’s clear that unit took a step back, too. But how much of a step back?

On the surface, the Lions went from the highest-scoring offense (33.2 points per game) the third-highest scoring offense (28.9), which doesn’t seem all that bad. We’re still talking about a top-five offense in scoring, which you’d think would be good enough to make a playoff run. However, things were bad enough to warrant a change in play-caller midseason, and some stats may be a bit misleading.

So I’m going to take a deeper dive into the Lions’ offensive statistics to see just how much regression there was on offense, and how close the Lions can get to jumping right back to an elite offense.

What the base statistics say about Lions’ offensive regression

When you look at some of the most commonly-used statistics, the difference between 2024 and 2025 doesn’t seem all that much.

2024:

• 33.2 points per game (1st)
• 6.2 yards per play (2nd)
• 8.6 yards per pass (2nd)
• 112.6 passer rating (2nd)
• 4.7 yards per carry (7th)

2025:

• 28.9 points per game (3rd)
• 6.0 yards per play (2nd)
• 7.8 yards per pass (6th)
• 107.0 passer rating (3rd)
• 4.6 yards per carry (8th)

Obviously, scoring more than four points fewer per game is not insignificant, but by most standard metrics, we’re talking about a top-three offense dropping to a top-six offense. There doesn’t appear to be much drop off in rushing, but in both yards per attempt and passer rating, there was a smal decline.

Advanced metrics tell a different story

Unfortunately, I don’t believe the above metrics do a very good job of painting an accurate picture. There are a few reasons for that—I’ll get to them as we go—but advanced stats like Expected Points Added (EPA) and success rate were created to give a little more context to performances and more accurately capture efficiency. The easiest example is a 15-yard draw on a third-and-20 play. By overall yards and yards per carry, that is going to look like a very successful play. By EPA and success rate, that’s an obvious failure.

So when we look at those stats on the overall offense, we do see a more significant drop:

(via RBDSM)

2024:

• 0.155 EPA/play (3rd)
• 49.6% success rate (1st)

2025:

• 0.067 EPA/play (10th)
• 44.4% success rate (16th)

Now we’re not just talking about a drop from a top-tier offense to a top-10 one. The Lions offense is probably better described as just “above average” based on EPA and success rate. But the problem is a little more specific than just overall offense.

Passing offense:

• 2024:
  • 0.267 EPA/dropback (3rd)
  • 53.6% success rate (1st)
• 2025:
  • 0.163 EPA/dropback (7th)
  • 47.9% success rate (10th)

Detroit’s passing attack has, indeed, taken a step back, but Jared Goff and company are still producing efficiency marks at a top-10 level. EPA has dropped nearly 40 percent and success rate by 5.7%—which is certainly a notable drop. But it’s the rushing offense that has seen the calamitous plummet.

Rushing offense:

• 2024:
  • 0.021 EPA/rush (5th)
  • 44.8% success rate (4th)
• 2025:
  • -0.075 EPA/rush (22nd)
  • 39.1% success rate (25th)

Detroit went from having a top-five rushing attack in the NFL to a bottom-10 one. Jahmyr Gibbs’ stats may not look like one of a struggling rushing attack (1,143 yards, 13 TDs, 5.1 YPC), but when it comes to Detroit’s down-to-down efficiency, they’ve been terrible running the ball. As I pointed out late last week, the Lions’ overall rushing stats are being largely propped up by a handful of extremely explosive plays:

This year, the Lions currently lead the NFL with nine rushes of 30+ yards. If we play the Kelvin Sheppard game and remove all nine of those rushes, the Lions’ overall stats plummet:

406 carries, 1,451 yards, 3.6 yards per carry

Simply put: for the majority of the season, the Lions have been terrible at running the football.

Yep, it’s the offensive line

It’s hard to find exact stats that are able to only highlight offensive line performance. A stat like rushing yards before contact comes close, but it can be easily swayed by outliers like an 80-yard run from a running back that goes untouched. For what it’s worth, the Lions went from 1.79 yards before contact per carry (sixth) in 2024 to 1.56 (10th), so that does catch some of the downgrade.

FTN Fantasy also has a statistic called “Adjusted Line Yards.” Their definition of that metric is explained in further here, but, in short, it takes rushing data and tries to eliminate some of the “noise” of long runs to get a statistic that gets closer to isolating the offensive line’s impact on the run game.

In 2024, the Lions ranked first in the NFL with 5.08 adjusted line yards. This year, they’re all the way down to 22nd at 4.21 adjusted line yards.

Or, you could go with the more subjective PFF grade. Here’s a look at the Lions’ run blocking grades from their starting lineup last year:

LT: Taylor Decker: 70.3 (22nd among OTs)
LG: Graham Glasgow: 60.1 (30th)
C: Frank Ragnow: 90.9 (1st)
RG: Kevin Zeitler: 87.2 (2nd)
RT: Penei Sewell: 91.5 (2nd)

And this year:

LT: Taylor Decker: 59.8 (38th)
LG: Christian Mahogany: 69.7 (19th)
C: Graham Glasgow: 55.4 (29th)
RG: Tate Ratledge: 73.8 (t-11th)
RT: Penei Sewell: 96.8 (1st)

And don’t forget pass protection, either. This year, the Lions forfeited 36 sacks at a sack rate of 6.3%. Last year—in one more game—gave up 33 sacks at a 5.7% rate. They are also allowing more pressure (34.4% vs. 33.5%) and significantly quicker pressure (2.50 seconds vs. 2.74) this year.

Beating up on bad teams

Part of the reason things don’t look as bad when looking at more basic statistics is because the Lions absolutely thrashed some of the worst defenses in football this year. Look at their performances against the bottom-10 scoring defenses in the league (Bears, Buccaneers, Giants, Commanders, Bengals, Cowboys):

• 39.2 points per game
• 450.5 yards per game
• 7.23 yards per play
• 171.8 rushing yards per game
• 6.06 yards per carry

Now, let’s look at those stats against the top-10 scoring defenses in the league (Eagles, Chiefs, Rams, Vikings, Vikings)

• 18.8 points per game
• 309.2 yards per game
• 5.14 yards per play
• 75.0 rushing yards per game
• 3.29 yards per carry

Obviously, most teams are going to look much worse against better defenses. But last year, the Lions seemed to have better answers for some of the best defenses in the league. Take a look at the 2024 splits:

2024 Lions offense against bottom-10 defenses:

• 43.0 points per game
• 438.2 yards per game
• 6.64 yards per play
• 166.6 rushing yards per game
• 4.93 yards per carry

2024 Lions offense against top-10 defenses:

• 30.0 points per game
• 359.3 yards per game
• 5.68 yards per play
• 139.3 rushing yards per game
• 4.49 yards per carry

The Vikings games are the perfect comparison between the two years. Detroit seemed to be the only team that had Brian Flores figured out last year (and in 2023, as well). This year, they put up two of their worst offensive performances of the entire season against Minnesota.

So how big of a step back?

Well, in terms of overall efficiency, the Lions’ offense was still good enough to win them football games. But the rushing efficiency didn’t just take a small step back, it was a massive one. And for a team that prides itself of smash-mouth football, 2025 was a massive failure and a significant step back.

The conclusion here is an obvious one: the Lions need to invest in their offensive line badly this offseason. Whether it was too much trust in their young players, a hamstrung salary cap, unlucky injuries, or a poorly-timed retirement, the Lions neglected their offensive front and the entire team paid for it.

While the defense has its own problems, the offense largely didn’t do them any favor. Think of the recent Steelers and Rams game, when the game got out of hand after repeated three-and-outs from the offense, leaving the defense out to dry for sometimes 10-12 minutes per quarter. With a solid running game that can control the clock, give the defense a rest, and put pressure on the opponents to score, the Lions could recapture their identity in 2026.