Through 17 Weeks: Where are the New York Jets most likely to pick?

Here we go. If you were rooting for the tank, these last few weeks have probably felt like a headache trying to figure out who to root against, tracking Strength of Schedule, and hoping the Jets continue to lose. But at long last, we have finally received some clarity on where they are likely to land in April.

For most of this stretch, the Jets have hovered inside the top five, yet there was always the danger they could stumble their way out of it. Heading into the final week of the season, that hasn’t changed. The Jets will definitively pick somewhere between 2 and 7. What happens now comes down to just a handful of results including, annoyingly, their Week 18 matchup in Buffalo.

The math is straightforward:

As of Week 18, six teams sit on either 3 or 4 wins. The Jets are part of a four-team cluster with 3 wins alongside the Giants, Cardinals, and Titans. In any tiebreak situation:

• The Jets would finish behind the Giants (regardless of Week 18 outcomes).
• The Jets would finish ahead of the Cardinals and Titans.
• Meanwhile, the two 4-win teams: Commanders and Browns also land ahead of the Jets in Strength of Schedule if aligned on wins.

Translation: the result of this Bills game actually matters a lot. If the Jets win, there’s a very real shot they fall out of the top five, especially since every team mentioned behind them is more than a touchdown underdog this week.

As of December 30, the Jets are also sitting as 7-point underdogs to Buffalo. The spread opened in double-digits, but sharp money has crept toward New York because the Bills are expected to rest starters to some degree.

A loss makes everything simpler. Lose, and you’re locked into a top-3 selection and likely sitting as the second QB-needy team on the board. If the Giants somehow beat Dallas, the Jets would actually end up picking second overall.

So yeah, if you’re a fan begging for a franchise QB, this suddenly matters a lot. It is a very different world selecting at 2 or 3 where someone like Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore is in reach compared to picking 6 or 7, where you are likely mortgaging much of your future to trade up if you hope to acquire one.

And of course, in classic Jets fashion, even tanking can’t be stress-free. Wouldn’t it be the perfect ending for this season for the Jets to beat Buffalo’s backups in Week 18 just to make everyone enraged one more time?