At the dawn of the Big East season, Xavier was just one more win from being on the plus side of 0 in terms of WAB. There’s a difference between having a positive WAB and having a tournament resume, but considering where Xavier started this year, that was a potentially enormous hurdle to clear. Instead […]
At the dawn of the Big East season, Xavier was just one more win from being on the plus side of 0 in terms of WAB. There’s a difference between having a positive WAB and having a tournament resume, but considering where Xavier started this year, that was a potentially enormous hurdle to clear.
Instead they got run off their own court in comprehensive fashion by Creighton, neatly deleting any accumulated positive vibes. Just as soon as it all came crashing down though, the Muskies revived a little holiday joy by beating Georgetown on the road in a gritty three-point win. Now X has a big opportunity to tally a resume win with UConn coming to Cintas in the final game of 2025.
With big opportunities come big tasks however, and there are few more imposing than taking on a full-strength UConn team. The Huskies have just one loss this year, by four at home to Arizona without their starting center Tarris Reed, Jr. With one win, they can flip the whole narrative around the first half of the season. If they do it this evening against UConn, they’ll have earned it.
Team fingerprint
Really good. It starts on defense, where they’re fourth in the nation in adjusted efficiency. They’re effective in forcing turnovers and cleaning up the glass, landing just inside the top 100 in each. Where they really excel is in smothering shots; their EFG% of 41.7% is third in the country, and they are in the top 10 in field goal percentage both inside and beyond the arc. All this comes at the expense of putting opponents at the foul line fairly frequently, though a cynic might point out that Xavier is not specifically equipped to take advantage of that weakness.
Their offense isn’t quite as elite, though they are still on the top 25 in adjusted efficiency. Aside from not getting to the line much, they’re very well-balanced, ranking outside the top 50 but inside the top 100 in EFG%, TO rate, and OReb%. They’re much stronger inside the arc than beyond it, where they’re only average. The pound the paint relentlessly though, ranking 249th in the country with a 36.4% three-point rate. They’re also 23rd in the country in assist rate and feature a balanced attack with 6 players averaging over 8 PPG.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Silas Demary Jr. | Point Guard | All Wright |
| Junior | Class | Sophomore |
| “6’4″”, 195″ | Measurements | “6’3″”, 190″ |
| 9/4.7/5.8 | Game line | 9.5/2/2.3 |
| 44.6/22.2/77.5 | Shooting line | 45.4/45.8/87.5 |
| You might recognize Demary as Georgia’s point guard from a couple years back when Xavier played them in the NIT. He went for 16/3/2 that night; fast forward to the present day and he’s one of the best distributors in the country. He can be a little loose in possession and doesn’t shoot the three very effectively or often, but on the whole he’s an excellent lead guard. His energetic defensive efforts are undercut a little bit by foul trouble to the tune of 4 per 40. | ||
| Solo Ball | Shooting Guard | Malik Messina-Moore |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| “6’4″”, 200″ | Measurements | “6’5″”, 200″ |
| 15.4/3.5/1.5 | Game line | 7.9/3/3.8 |
| 42.6/30/83.7 | Shooting line | 33.3/27.1/76.5 |
| Ball was one of the best shooters in the nation last year. This year he’s only shooting 30% from deep, but he’s spending more time inside the arc and getting to the line more. It’s a tougher way to make a living and he has been a tick less efficient, but he is still very much a dangerous scorer. He’s averaging 26 and shooting 50% from deep in Big East play. He missed the DePaul game with a minor foot injury, but he is back for this one. | ||
| Braylon Mullins | Small Forward | Tre Carroll |
| Freshman | Class | Senior |
| “6’6″”, 196″ | Measurements | “6’8″”, 235″ |
| 9.3/2.9/0.9 | Game line | 16.5/5.6/2.8 |
| 46.4/33.3/100 | Shooting line | 48.5/37.9/62.8 |
| After six straight DNP to begin the season, Mullins has played the last seven and started the last three. He has had some ups and downs, but he dropped 17 at Kansas and a dozen on Butler. He’s been stuffing the stat sheet with steals and blocks, but that comes at a cost of more than 6 fouls per 40 minutes. | ||
| Alex Karaban | Power Forward | Filip Borovicanin |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| “6’8″”, 230″ | Measurements | “6’9″”, 227″ |
| 13.6/5.3/2.1 | Game line | 8.8/7.5/4.2 |
| 52.4/43.9/87 | Shooting line | 48/29.7/87.5 |
| I was hoping this guy would leave for the NBA last year, but no such luck. Instead he’s back and dropping a cool 136.5 ORtg and up to his usual sniper hijinks and reliable scoring bag. He rebounds okay and is a more effective and versatile defender than he gets credit for. Dude can play. | ||
| Tarris Reed Jr. | Center | Jovan Milicevic |
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| “6’11″”, 255″ | Measurements | “6’10″”, 241″ |
| 14.5/7.5/2 | Game line | 11.6/4.3/1.3 |
| 64/0/60.6 | Shooting line | 39.7/42/62.9 |
| He has been in and out of the lineup this year, but UConn is yet to lose a game in which Reed plays. He’s a monster on the glass on both ends and a very effective rim protector. He scores well in the paint and draws a decent number of fouls, though the effectiveness of that is blunted a bit by his mediocrity from the line. He has added more effective passing to his game this year; he’s a very solid all-around big man. |
Reserves
UConn gets a solid 35ish percent of their minutes from the bench, though sometimes that has more to do with injuries than actual depth. Still, you know they’ve got some horses on reserve to go 12-1 against a schedule inside the top 25 of opponent strength. Let’s meet them.
First up is Eric Reibe, a 7’1″ freshman out of Germany. He does a little bit of everything, averaging 8.2/4.3/0.3 on .630/.400/.500 shooting. He rebounds well at both ends and blocks a lot of shots, though he is averaging almost 5 fouls per 40 minutes. He started some in Reed’s absence and has transitioned to a legit weapon off the bench.
Jaylin Stewart and Jayden Ross are both 6’7″ forwards averaging right around 20 minutes per game. Stewart is slightly more productive, averaging 6.2/3.6/1.7 to Ross’s 5.7/3/0.6, but Ross’s 119.4 ORtg makes him the more efficient of the two by a hair. They’re both shooting well over 60% from inside the arc and are significantly less effective from deep.
Malachi Smith rounds out the meaningful depth. He’s a 6’1″ point guard who transferred in from Dayton; he averages 5.2/1.8/4.0, distributes really well without turning it over much, and is shooting 50% from both the three-point arc and the free throw line.
Three questions
-How will Xavier score? It’s no secret that Xavier’s offense has struggled this year. Even when they’re going well, they can be overly reliant on the three ball, and they certainly haven’t been going well of late. UConn smothers the arc and is barely less effective inside it, and Xavier is 10th in the Big East in three-point shooting in conference play. By far Xavier’s best offensive trait is ball security, but the Huskies don’t rely on forcing turnovers to be effective on offense. A glance at the four factors on KenPom would have you believe a shutout isn’t out of the realm of possibility; it’s gonna be tough sledding for X.
-Can Xavier push UConn outside the arc? The Huskies are really good at scoring inside; Xavier’s defense does a good job of forcing teams to shoot from inside the arc instead of beyond it. It doesn’t take John Wooden to see the potential issue here. UConn shoots it pretty well from deep too, but that’s a better option than watching UConn shoot layups all night. X has to do something to keep the visitors out of the paint.
-Will the real Jovan Milicevic please stand up? The big Canadian has certainly had bright spots this year, perhaps none more than dropping 40 points and connecting on 10 of 17 threes over the Thanksgiving weekend, but he has been a complete no-show during Big East play. Xavier doesn’t have enough offensive depth to have a guy who averages 12 a game suddenly throw up a goose egg like he did at home against Creighton. It’s not entirely fair to ask a sophomore to be completely bereft of growing pains, but we sure could use for Milicevic to lock back in soon.
Three keys
-Limit UConn to one shot. Not total – though that would be a heck of an effort and almost certainly ensure victory – but per possession. The Huskies defense is almost certain to hold Xavier to its share of empty possessions, meaning every point conceded is going to lengthen an already uphill struggle. If UConn is getting consistent second chance points, Xavier’s going to have issues keeping this one within touching distance.
-Launch from deep. I know I mentioned above that Xavier has been struggling from behind the arc of late, but I think hoping the ol’ shooting eye comes back is their most realistic chance here. UConn blocks a ton of shots, 17.1% of opponents’ twos overall and a staggering 26.6% in Big East play. Xavier is well outside the top 300 in avoiding blocks as an offense. If X insists on attacking the rim with any frequency, records might be set. The way forward lies beyond the arc.
-Work UConn into foul trouble. I know free throws don’t necessarily turn into points for Xavier this year, but making this a choppy, ugly affair could keep the Huskies from getting into rhythm. Karaban, Ball, and Smith generally do a good job, but the rest of the rotation can get pretty slappy. If the zebras a feeling froggy, a little home cooking might be just what the doctor ordered for the Musketeers.
Category: General Sports
