3 reasons why Arizona men’s basketball will or won’t make the Final Four

A new year is upon us, bringing hope, anticipation and … anxiety about how the Arizona men’s basketball season will unravel.

November and December couldn’t have gone any better for Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats, who are 13-0 and off to the program’s best start in more than a decade. It’s been nothing short of a dream season up to this point.

With January here and the start of Big 12 play is days away, attention turns to what this uber talented group can achieve come the postseason.

Arizona has already proven it belongs in the top tier of college basketball by beating the likes of Florida, UCLA, UConn, Alabama and Auburn in non-conference play. Human rankings and computer metrics agree that this is one of, if not the best team in the country through the first two months.

As nice as it is to see a No. 1 ranking next to Arizona’s name in early January, what matters most around here is what the Wildcats accomplish come March. The calendar flipping to 2026 is a reminder that it’s now been 25 years since Arizona last made the Final Four.

Forty-four other programs have made a Final Four appearance in that span. Arizona, the sixth-winningest program in the 21st century, is a whole generation removed from reaching that achievement.

Here are three reasons why Arizona will or won’t break through and make the Final Four in 2026.

Why Arizona will make the Final Four

Battle tested

It’s hard to imagine any team in the country will be better prepared for the level of competition in the NCAA Tournament than Arizona given the UA’s non-conference schedule and the matchups that lie ahead in Big 12 play. No team in modern college basketball history has won five of its first nine games against ranked opponents until Arizona did it this year. Four of those wins were away from home, including three on neutral courts.

Lloyd intentionally goes for an aggressive out-of-conference schedule to give his team a feel for what they’ll encounter in March Madness. Even if the results hadn’t gone Arizona’s way in every non-con game, the exposure and experience is greatly beneficial come the postseason.

Arizona’s ability to pull out wins against the likes of Florida, UConn, Auburn and Alabama – four teams with recent Final Four appearances – speaks to where the Wildcats are headed.

Looking ahead, the Wildcats’ Big 12 schedule is backloaded with February/early March contests versus Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston and Iowa State. Arizona likely won’t come out of that stretch unscathed, but the timing ensures Arizona will be challenged right through the start of postseason play.

Arizona as a program has a history of falling short in the NCAA Tournament after going unchallenged for much of the regular season. That won’t be an issue this year. The confidence of winning hard games could be what catapults this team into the Final Four.

Balance of scoring

Arizona’s distribution of scoring is another reason to believe this group can withstand the mercurial swings that many teams fall victim to in the Big Dance. Heading into the new year, the Wildcats have seven players averaging nine or more points. Alabama is only other ranked team that can say that, and unlike the Crimson Tide, Arizona also boasts a top defense.

The ability to get so many players involved on offense will make it difficult for opponents looking to neutralize any one of Arizona’s scoring threats. Plus there are just so many ways Arizona can hurt teams.

The emergence of Dwayne Aristode as a 3-point sniper – he’s made 20 of 38 attempts from behind the arc – answers what may be the last remaining question critics haven thrown at Arizona’s offense.

A prime example of the Wildcats’ scoring balance? During a nine-game stretch of non-conference play, no one player led Arizona in scoring on back-to-back nights.

“We don’t tell guys, okay, you score 12 points, start letting your teammates score,” Lloyd said after Arizona’s win over Bethune-Cookman. “It’s just kind of how the game ends up sometimes. And we have lots of good players and we’ve kind of really settled in on that eight man rotation.”

Elite defense and rebounding

Defense travels in the NCAA Tournament. So does rebounding. Arizona happens to be really good at both.

Considering Arizona has scored 90+ points in seven of its last games, it can be possible to forget that defense is actually this team’s strength. The Wildcats ranked third in the nation in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, a big step up from last season when they finished the year 38th and more in line with 2023-24, when Arizona finished 10th.

The last Arizona teams to finish the seasons top-3 in defensive efficiency were 2013-14 and 2014-15 under Sean Miller. Arizona just barely missed the Final Four both years.

The Wildcats excel at defending 2-point field goal attempts, allowing opponents to shoot just 42.8% from inside the arc. Arizona is also excellent at cleaning up opponents’ misses. Arizona gobbles up more than three-quarters of rebounds on the defensive end, which ranks near the top of the country.

On the offensive glass, Arizona recovers 42% of its own misses, the third-highest percentage in the nation.

Tobe Awaka is the glue to it all. Despite only being 6-foot-8, Awaka is statistically the best rebounder in the country, and it’s not particularly close.

With elite rebounding and defense to fall back on, Arizona will be a very tough out in March.

Why Arizona won’t make the Final Four

Risk of injuries

The best description of Arizona’s brand of bully ball belongs to Alabama coach Nate Oats.

“They got guys that look like the NFL will be calling to see if they want to come on a tryout when their basketball career is done,” Oats said last month. He was spot on in comparing Arizona’s level of physicality to that of a football team.

Unfortunately, there is a cost that comes with playing so physical as any fan of football knows.

Motiejus Krivas for example banged his hand against San Diego State and played the last game with a wrap on. Those sorts of minor injuries tend to pile up as the season goes on and there’s fewer rest days in between games. Arizona plays in what might the most physical conference in the country (hello Houston), and it’s not a matter of if but when a player will get banged up.

Lloyd and his coaching staff would scoff at any notion that Arizona alter its physical style in order to mitigate injury risk. There should be some level of concern, though, what all that contact will mean for the health of the team come March.

A serious injury to a core contributor is the No. 1 roadblock that could prevent Arizona from making the third weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Off night

Teams at any level of basketball are susceptible to the dreaded off night when little to nothing is clicking on offense. Arizona fans have experienced the pain of March Madness off nights many times over the years, most recently against Clemson in the 2024 Sweet 16.

This season’s Arizona team is better protected against off nights than previous years because of the aforementioned scoring balance, as well as its lack of reliance on 3-point field goals.

As fans of this program know, it only takes one game where something goes wrong for Arizona to be sent packing short of its goal. Foul trouble stands out as perhaps the biggest contributor to an off night.

If either Krivas or Awaka pick up an early second foul in the first half, Arizona’s major size and rebounding advantage could be mitigated. The same goes for foul trouble against Jaden Bradley, especially if it means he’s sidelined for critical stretches of the second half.

Too many freshmen

Arizona will enter first and second weekends of the NCAA Tournament with a talent advantage in every matchup, but the Wildcats’ lack of continuity could be what keeps them from making a deep run to the Final Four.

Four of the team’s eight rotation players are in their first season with the program. All four are freshmen who will be playing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time.

While someone like Peat has competed in important international tournament in the past with Team USA, the structure of March Madness is a different animal.

Arizona’s freshmen deserve credit for being mature beyond their years. They show it in their play on a nightly basis.

“For me, I don’t really see it freshmen or not. If you’re good enough, you’re physical enough, you can play at any level,” IvanKharchenkov said last week. “Sure, the experience was gonna lack a little bit. But I feel like you can work it out in a different way, figure it out.”

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how they’ll translate their player to a winner-take-all tournament setting.