2025 Liberty Bowl Preview: Navy Midshipmen vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

Game notes

• Time and date: Friday, January 2 at 4:30 p.m. ET
• Network: ESPN
• Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium — Memphis, TN
• Spread: Navy (-7.5)
• Over/under: 54.5
• All-time series: Series tied, 3-3
• Last meeting: Cincinnati 20, Navy 10 — November 5, 2022
• Current streak: Cincinnati, 3 (2018-22)
• Navy last bowl: 2024 Armed Forces Bowl, 21-20 win over Oklahoma
• Cincinnati last bowl: 2022 Fenway Bowl, 24-7 loss to Louisville
• 2024 Liberty Bowl matchup: Arkansas 39, Texas Tech 26

Setting the scene

Old American Conference rivals meet again in an American Conference venue. The Navy Midshipmen (10-2, 7-1 American) and Cincinnati Bearcats (7-5, 5-4 Big 12) reunite in Memphis, concluding their seasons in one of the few post-New Year’s bowl games.

Navy can seal its third 11-win season in program history, putting 2025 on a pedestal with 2015 and 2019. The Midshipmen are currently ranked No. 22 in the AP Poll and can solidify their fourth season-end ranking since the dawn of the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati is bowling for the first time as a Big 12 program. The Bearcats eye their first bowl win since 2019 after dropping their first three matchups of the 2020s. Cincinnati owns a 3-game win streak over Navy and can keep it alive by emerging in Memphis.

Navy Midshipmen outlook

Brian Newberry built a machine at Navy, producing 10 wins in consecutive seasons for the first time ever. The Midshipmen literally ran through the competition this year, generating the FBS’s best rushing offense at 289 yards per game.

There’s plenty of program-defining talent on this offense, most notably three seniors playing their final collegiate game. One is quarterback Blake Horvath, who is 18th nationally in rushing (76 yards away from No. 1 on the quarterback leaderboard) and concluding a historic run as Navy’s starter. In addition to posting one of the best passing seasons in Midshipmen history, Horvath has exceed 100 rushing yards in seven of his last nine starts — consistently displaying dominance despite defensive adjustments.

Another star concluding his Navy tenure is running back Alex Tecza. Tecza was the hero down the stretch of November with 100+ yard outings vs. South Florida and Memphis, and he also caught the winning 2-point try to beat Temple. If he can manage 178 yards, he reaches 1,000 for the first time in his career.

Tecza is a Pittsburgh native, as is Eli Heidenreich. Navy’s all-time leading receiver, Heidenreich lights defenses on fire, often finding openings deep downfield. He averages 19.1 yards per catch and already owns a Navy program-best 877 receiving yards in a single season, looking to build on those numbers in his final time wearing the uniform.

Navy ranks 35th in scoring offense and won a slew of shootouts this year, triumphing in four of six games allowing over 30 points. The defense let up more than preferred, particularly in the passing game where opponents averaged 241 yards. However, the defense also features an AP First Team All-American in defensive tackle Landon Robinson. The first Navy AP First Team All-American since 1975, Robinson dominated all year with his athleticism, contributing 6.5 sacks and 58 tackles.

Other standouts on this defense include linebackers MarcAnthony Parker and Luke Pirris, who combine for 168 tackles and 13.5 tackles for loss.

Cincinnati Bearcats outlook

Cincinnati controlled its own destiny for the Big 12 Championship Game on the morning of Nov. 14, but the Bearcats slumped toward the finish, following a fantastic 7-1 start with a dreary 0-4 finish. Unwelcome finishes are nothing new for Cincinnati which dropped 5-straight games to conclude 2024 and eight of nine to end 2023.

The good news for the Bearcats is they can hit the reset button and redefine 2025 by outlasting Navy in the Liberty Bowl. It will be an extremely uphill battle for head coach Scott Satterfield and Co., especially considering the lack of available personnel for Friday.

The transfer portal opens Jan. 2, and six starters announced intention to enter the portal, including quarterback Brendan Sorsby and four defensive backs (DBs coach Eddie Hicks departed for Arkansas). Thus, Friday is largely about next-man-up mentality for the Bearcats. The one position group Cincinnati can pride itself in is a full offensive line. The unit is tied with Army for the fewest sacks allowed at seven, and left guard Evan Tengesdahl is the name to watch as an AP All-American selection.

Tengesdahl and the unit will block for new starting quarterback Brady Lichtenberg who prepares for his first collegiate start in his fifth year on campus (a member of the 2021 CFP team). Lichtenberg has thrown 45 passes over the years including six in 2025, and he looks to make the most of a golden opportunity to end his college days.

With running back Evan Pryor out, redshirt sophomore Manny Covey and true freshman Zion Johnson are the new faces to watch in the run game. Each of the Bearcats’ top four running backs, including Covey and Johnson, averaged 5.8+ yards per carry behind this o-line, which could bode favorably in Memphis. Also carrying a bulk of the offense is deep threat target Cyrus Allen whose 12 touchdowns lead all Big 12 receivers.

Defensive tackle Dontay Corleone is another glaring vacancy from the depth chart, as he opted out of the season to prepare for the NFL Draft. Outside linebacker Jake Golday is another draft candidate on this team, but he is expected to play after totaling 105 tackles and 3.5 sacks in his best season to date. Overall, Cincinnati’s defense is 100th in yards allowed per game, but the Bearcats’ glaring issue was their inability to force turnovers — picking off just two passes all season.

Prediction

Service academies tend to perform well in bowl games. Navy has won six of seven. Army has won seven of eight. Air Force has won five-straight. The long preparation — which can take up to a month — often bodes well for these programs, and it shows in these games. The Midshipmen are already on a roll, taking down American Conference talents like South Florida and Memphis during the month of November, before winning an emotional Army game.

Cincinnati has trended in the opposite direction with 4-straight losses, and the Bearcats are down Brendan Sorsby, Dontay Corleone, and several other key pieces. Cincinnati’s primary advantage will be its run game through its offensive line, but the Bearcats have struggled mightily on defense lately — and Navy’s option attack could be a nightmare matchup. Midshipmen win handily and secure 11 wins for the third time ever.

Prediction: Navy 35, Cincinnati 13