Half of the NFL's highest-paid QBs missed the postseason, but paying top-end guys isn't the problem

The NFL playoff field is set, and it's missing half of the league's top 10 highest-paid quarterbacks in average annual value. 

Spotrac made note of that fact on Monday, a day after the dust settled on the NFL's regular season. Of the league's top 10 paid quarterbacks, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert are all in the postseason.

Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson are not.

Which got us to thinking. Are teams hamstringing their playoff chances in a salary-capped league by paying premiums for quarterbacks? Is it too difficult in the modern NFL to build a competitive roster around a quarterback playing on a premium salary?

Quarterback is the most important position in football, if not in all of sports. It's difficult to win a Super Bowl without a high-end signal caller, though Super Bowls have been won with Nick Foles, Jeff Hostetler, Jim Plunkett, Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer.

But having a Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Joe Montana is historically the best ingredient for success. And they cost money. 

Here's a look at the salaries of starting quarterbacks for all 32 NFL teams, grouped by whether or not they made the playoffs. Players with a top-10 salary are in bold.

Playoff quarterbacks

Jordan Love: $55 million

Trevor Lawrence: $55 million

Josh Allen: $55 million

Brock Purdy: $55 million

Justin Herbert: $52.5 million

Jalen Hurts: $51 million

Matthew Stafford: $42 million

Sam Darnold: $33.5 million

Aaron Rodgers: $13.65 million

Caleb Williams: $9.9 million (rookie contract)

Bryce Young: $9.5 million (rookie contract)

Drake Maye: $9.2 million (rookie contract)

C.J. Stroud: $9.1 million (rookie contract)

Bo Nix: $4.7 million (rookie contract)

Average salary: $32.5 million

Non-playoff quarterbacks 

Dak Prescott, Cowboys: $60 million

Joe Burrow, Bengals: $55 million

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: $53.1 million

Jared Goff, Lions: $53 million

Lamar Jackson, Ravens: $52 million

Kyler Murray, Cardinals: $46.1 million

Kirk Cousins, Falcons: $45 million

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: $45 million

Geno Smith, Raiders: $37.5 million

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers: $33.3 million

Justin Fields, Jets: $20 million

Daniel Jones, Colts: $14 million

Cam Ward, Titans: $12.2 million (rookie contract)

Jayden Daniels, Commanders: $9.4 million (rookie contract)

J.J. McCarthy, Vikings: $5.5 million (rookie contract)

Jaxson Dart, Giants: $4.2 million (rookie contract)

Tyler Shough, Saints: $2.7 million (rookie contract)

Shedeur Sanders, Browns: $1.2 million (rookie contract)

Average salary: $30.5 million

The rookie contract edge

It's notable that five of the 12 playoff quarterbacks are playing on rookie contracts, which are capped by the collective bargaining agreement.

That cost control is extremely valuable, and optimizing roster construction around rookie quarterback contracts is a proven formula for success. Since the inception of the rookie wage scale in 2011, the Seattle Seahawks with Russell Wilson (2014 season) and the Kansas City Chiefs with Mahomes (2019 season) have navigated the rookie wage scale to Super Bowl victories.

This, season, the Patriots have an MVP candidate in Maye who's the ninth-highest paid player on the team. Nix playing on a $4.7 million salary has allowed the Broncos to build a Super Bowl contender despite Wilson's disastrous contract remaining on the books. 

Stroud, meanwhile is a veteran quarterback in his third season who's surrounded by one of the NFL's fiercest defenses. It would not be a surprise to see any of them playing in or winning the Super Bowl in January.

This is an optimal way to build a Super contender in the short window available to pay quarterbacks on a rookie contract. This, of course, requires hitting successfully on a quarterback in the draft who can lead a team to contention at a young age. 

And it's also, obviously, not the only path to success. Thirteen of the 15 Super Bowls won since the inception of the rookie wage scale have been won by quarterbacks not playing on a rookie deal.

Todd Olszewski via Getty Images

Are big QB contracts worth the bite?

At some point, those rookie quarterbacks will be due for extensions. And if you've got a high-end quarterback on your hands who's due to be paid, there's little choice but to pay him. And that doesn't mean that you can't build a successful roster around said quarterback. 

Yes, half of the top 10 paid quarterbacks will be watching the playoffs from home. But it's a little absurd to suggest that that's an indictment of paying top quarterbacks their market value.

Burrow missed most of the season due to injury. Do the Bengals have also roster construction issues? Absolutely. But that's an issue that's plagued the franchise for pretty much the entirety of its existence under Brown family ownership, with or without a premium quarterback on the roster.

The Cowboys likewise have roster concerns that limited their upside. Like with the Bengals, it's fairer to take a look at the decades-long management under Jerry Jones (and the defense specifically this year) than point to the $60 million salary of Prescott, who was excellent this season, to explain why the Cowboys aren't in the playoffs.

It's difficult to argue that the Lions and Ravens didn't build strong rosters around Goff and Jackson. There's talent on both sides of the ball on both teams outside of their quarterbacks. And Jackson was clearly limited by injuries this season, while the Lions were ravaged by injuries of their own.

In the end, 14 of the league's 32 teams make the playoffs. The Ravens and Lions just missed out, but it wouldn't be a surprise for either or both to return to contention next season. 

And then there's Tagovailoa. His contract at this point was pretty clearly a mistake. He got benched at the end of the season, and his time in Miami very well may be done. The Dolphins would surely take a do-over on his deal of they could.

But the Prescott, Jackson, Burrow and Goff deals? There are surely no regrets from their respective franchises. Teams without high-end quarterbacks would certainly jump at the chance to take their contracts on.