How the 49ers strength of schedule has helped prepared them for the Eagles

For all the talk about the San Francisco 49ers’ “easy schedule” in 2025, people seem to forget that it is based on the 2024 versions of those teams. Unless those 2024 teams walk through the door in 2025, that isn’t a reliable way to predict the schedule’s difficulty.

For instance, who predicted the Jacksonville Jaguars would have a top-end defense and be a force in the AFC? The 49ers lost to them in Week 4. The strength of schedule fails to quantify the ebbs and flows of a season, also. What if a team with an overall losing record is a tough matchup due to their defense? Or what about a team that ends with an unfavorable record, but during the season, and more importantly, when the 49ers face the,m have found their footing and are a different team?

The only reason I bring up the 49ers’ schedule is that on Wild Card Sunday, they will face a top-ten defensive EPA unit for the ninth time (Seattle and LA account for four matchups). For the folks counting at home, that would be half of their games (Sunday is their 18th game). To take it one step further, the 49ers faced Atlanta and Indianapolis, who rank 15th and 16th in defensive EPA, respectively.

Let’s look at how the 49ers have fared in the eight games against the top ten units.

Week 1 – 49ers 17, Seattle 13

The 49ers stunned Seattle after a game-winning touchdown and defensive stop by Nick Bosa to close the show. With only 17 points, the 49ers left with a win, but nothing came easy. George Kittle left after the first touchdown drive, and Jauan Jennings was banged up, but luckily, this game was played in Week 1 before the Seahawks and Mike MacDonald figured out their defense and personnel.

Week 2 – 49ers 26, Saints 21

Facing New Orleans wasn’t billed as a struggle facing a top-end defense, but the Saints had two ten-sack defensive linemen in Cam Jordan and Chase Young and finished ninth with a defensive EPA of -0.07. Mac Jones and the 49ers offense scored 26 points (remember that number), and another defensive stop at the end of the game sealed the deal for the 49ers. It’s important to remember Spencer Rattler started this game, and the Saints’ offense was a far cry from the much more explosive and efficient offense it turned out to be when Tyler Shough took over down the stretch.

Week 4 – Jaguars 26, 49ers 21

Brock Purdy returned from his toe injury, probably a bit too soon, and the Jaguars’ defense generated turnovers at a league-high rate before Week 4. Purdy was slightly off all game, and the Jaguars created turnovers, including one on the 49ers’ last drive of the game. Nobody could have expected this defense to be this good in the offseason, as the Jaguars finished third in the NFL with a defensive EPA of -0.11.

Week 5 – 49ers 26, Rams 23 OT

With Mac Jones back under center, the 49ers’ offensive game plan was masterful, predicated on short throws with YAC opportunities to beat the pass rush and make up for the lack of downfield threats. While I still fully didn’t understand the Rams’ philosophy on defense of allowing underneath throws and staying in deep zones for most of the game, Jones operated the offense beautifully and, with a few key defensive plays from the 49ers, helped the team leave with one of the more improbable wins of the season for any team.

Week 8 – Texans 26, 49ers 15

What the Texans lacked in offensive firepower, they made up for in spades with their ferocious defense. The Texans bested Seattle for the top spot with a defensive EPA of -0.13. Jones didn’t play poorly, but the Houston defense pushed the 49ers around and made life miserable for their offense. Houston is a team not many are lining up to face in the AFC playoffs, regardless of the setting.

Week 10 – Rams 42, 49ers 26

Wrong place, wrong time for the 49ers in Week 10. The Rams’ offense was on fire, and the 49ers’ defense had no answers. At times, the game would get close, but Los Angeles was too much and rolled to a victory at Levi’s Stadium.

Week 13 – 49ers 26, Browns 8

Myles Garrett was on a tear, Jim Schwartz has famously gotten the better of Kyle Shanahan, and there was some pesky weather in Cleveland. Things were only a little hairy when the Browns took an 8-7 lead before Purdy, and the 49ers led a first-half ending touchdown drive. The Browns made mistakes; their offense was inept, the 49ers took advantage, and the 49ers left with a win.

Week 18 – Seattle 13, 49ers 3

Yeah, whatever.

Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles present a similar challenge to the Seahawks. Their defensive line can get pressure with just four, and their back seven is athletic and fast. The game plan this week will be to get the ball out quickly to playmakers, slow down the pass rush, sustain drives on third down, and stay in manageable down-and-distance situations.

Any sort of repeat from Saturday’s loss is doom. Keeping the 49ers defense off the field will be key, but we have seen the Eagles’ offense be better than the one they are facing. The Buffalo Bills rank 31st in the NFL against the run, and Saquon Barkley didn’t crack 70 yards while Jalen Hurts completed zero passes in the second half.