Venezuela, international affairs, and the Milwaukee Brewers

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Early in the morning of January 3, 2026, residents of Caracas, Venezuela, awoke to bombs falling from the night sky. Gunshots rang out near Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s presidential compound. Mere hours later, United States President Donald Trump announced that Maduro was in custody aboard the USS Iwo Jima.

Now, you might be asking: what does any of this have to do with the Brewers?

Although I have a degree in international relations, I never thought I’d be writing about geopolitics for Brew Crew Ball. The reality, however, is that the rapidly developing crisis between the United States and Venezuela could have wide-reaching implications for Major League Baseball and its Venezuelan players.

Milwaukee scouts heavily in Venezuela (which could be another article in and of itself). Some of the Brewers’ best players, like Jackson Chourio and William Contreras, are Venezuelan nationals. Last month, the United States imposed a no-fly zone over Venezuela applicable to all U.S. operators, while Caracas’ international airport has been closed since Maduro was taken into custody. This means that Chourio, Contreras, Jeferson Quero, and Andruw Monasterio are all currently stranded in Venezuela, per a Monday report from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Curt Hogg, which also notes all players are safe. Recent acquisition Ángel Zerpa, a native Venezuelan, may also be in the country, though Hogg was unable to confirm if that is the case.

As the disclaimer says, I’m not here to give you my opinion on politics. I’m not going to argue for or against military action, for or against foreign intervention, for or against Maduro. What I can do is explain how the competing interests in this situation could affect MLB players.

For those of you following the news as this unfolds, this is everything you need to know about the United States and Venezuela as it pertains to the Brewers:

First, a bit of background on how we got here

Nicolas Maduro is a former bus driver who rose through the ranks of the bus drivers’ union to become a right-hand man to former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez. After Chávez died in 2013, Maduro served as the president of Venezuela until his arrest on January 3.

Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world and, during the 1960s and 70s, was the richest country in Latin America and one of the richest in the Western Hemisphere. By the time the 90s rolled around, poverty rates had begun to skyrocket due to economic mismanagement (causing rising inflation) and increased corruption among Venezuelan oligarchs. In 1992, Chávez tried to commit a coup, but failed. After he got out of prison, he ran for president of Venezuela and won.

During his first term, Chávez implemented a socialist government — ostensibly as a method of redistributing oil money away from the elites and back to the people. The reality was more complicated. While poverty initially declined, Chávez also consolidated power, replaced much of the judiciary with loyalists, persecuted political opponents, suspended term limits, and expanded presidential authority. Corruption allegations followed him throughout his rule.

By the time Chávez appointed Maduro his successor in 2013, the economy was in ruins. Things have only gotten worse. The economy has contracted by roughly 80%. Corruption is still rampant; Venezuela has significantly more oil than even Saudi Arabia, yet an astonishing 91% of Venezuelans live beneath the global poverty line. Despite their massive oil reserves, the Venezuelan government hasn’t had the money to invest in infrastructure, so the vast majority of the oil remains untapped.

In 2024, Maduro lost a (disputed) election to opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez but proclaimed himself the winner anyway. He then reportedly sent his security forces after Gonzalez, who is now in exile.

It was initially reported that Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, had fled the country to seek asylum in Russia. However, Rodríguez was sworn in as the president on Tuesday, January 6. President Trump gave an interview with The Atlantic that seemingly endorsed Rodríguez, adding that “she’s essentially willing to do what (the United States) thinks is necessary to make Venezuela great again.”

“If she doesn’t do what’s right,” Trump added, “she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro.”

As of Monday, January 5, Trump had not spoken with opposition leader María Corina Machado, also in exile, whose party claims to have won the disputed 2024 Venezuelan presidential election. “I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader. She doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country,” Trump told reporters during a press conference. “She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect to be a leader.”

There’s a famous quote from Thucydides — the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must. This also applies to international relations. If you look at the situation in Venezuela through this lens, the legality of the situation doesn’t really matter because both actors (the United States and Venezuela) will do what they can to further their interests. Any legal battles will take months, if not years, and even then, there’s no “world police” to step in and stop a conflict. What happens in the meantime will have ramifications for the Brewers players currently in Venezuela, regardless of legality.

You finally said something about the Brewers! Stop beating around the bush. What does any of this have to do with baseball?

The situation on the ground in Venezuela right now is extremely murky, and any developments will have a pronounced effect on the safety of Brewers (and other Major League Baseball) players in Venezuela.

Ideally, Brewers players still in Venezuela would leave immediately in case the political situation goes sideways. Chourio was reportedly scheduled to leave the country on Tuesday, January 6, although there’s been no word on whether or not he actually has. Less is known about Contreras, Quero, Monasterio, and potentially Zerpa.

The best and safest way to leave Venezuela would be to leave via plane to a third country (due to the no-fly zone) as soon as the airport reopens. If those players decide to stay, or can’t leave, here’s what might happen:

If Rodríguezremains president, this could go two ways. Rodríguez could decide to involve the United States in their oil industry or generally capitulate to any demands out of fear of further retribution. In this scenario, tensions will slowly cool between the two countries (at least for a while). Venezuelan players shouldn’t face any issues trying to leave Venezuela or reenter the United States.

However, Rodríguez could instead take a hard-line stance against the United States and keep the government much as it was under Maduro. This would essentially be calling Trump’s bluff, which is a risky proposition considering the size of the U.S. armed forces.

That scenario would probably make things worse for players currently in Venezuela. If a full war breaks out, commercial flights would generally be grounded. The United States embassy would be involved in getting its citizens out of the country (like during the fall of Saigon), but it’s a little murkier for players who aren’t United States citizens. The United States doesn’t have a legal duty to evacuate non-citizens (e.g., a Venezuelan national with a United States work visa). Venezuela is also a really bad place to need help from the United States government in general. Per the State Department:

“The U.S. government has no way to contact U.S. nationals detained in Venezuela, and those detained are not allowed to contact family members or independent legal counsel. According to former detainees, as well as independent human rights organizations, detainees have been subjected to torture and cruel, inhumane, or degrading treatment or punishment, including severe beatings, prolonged restraint in stress positions, and waterboarding.”

Venezuela doesn’t really have a lot of leverage here — they don’t have a ton of allies, their economy is struggling, and their military is nowhere near the size of the U.S. military. In the scenario where Rodríguez decides to reject U.S. involvement and the United States threatens a full-scale invasion, Venezuela could theoretically detain athletes in order to gain a little more bargaining power. This is dark, but I feel compelled to mention it because war is never pretty.

The final option, if a conflict were to break out, would be leaving via a land border. This would depend on sneaking across an unguarded border, and/or knowing (or paying off) a border guard. The four Venezuelan cities of Caracas, Maracaibo, Barquisimeto, and Valencia are all pretty close to the Colombian border, but that part of Colombia has guerrilla fighters and Colombian army troops stationed at the border right now. Crossing a land border during an active conflict is obviously dangerous and not an ideal option.

If the opposition government takes power, things would change in Venezuela, and probably more drastically than if Rodríguez remains in power. The opposition government is committed to dismantling the Bolivarian (socialist) government and implementing a democratic capitalist system. The United States has historically minimized its cooperation with socialist/communist states, so if the opposition government takes power, relations could be reasonably expected to improve.

Opposition leader Machado sat down for an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity earlier Tuesday. In the interview, she said that Trump “should have won” the Nobel Peace Prize instead of her and stated her intent to return to Venezuela. Based on those remarks, it seems likely that tensions will cool between the two countries if Machado’s government ends up taking power, as Machado seems willing to work with Trump.

However, if Trump endorses Machado as president of Venezuela, a power struggle (and therefore violence) could break out between Bolivarian supporters and opposition supporters. Rodríguez and the rest of Maduro’s old government are heavily entrenched with the military, but per independent polls, more Venezuelans support the opposition government. Worst comes to worst, Venezuela falls into civil war, which could also lead to baseball players being detained or unable to get out of the country.

The final player to consider is the United States government itself. Last year, the United States Department of State made headlines for initially refusing to issue visas to a Venezuelan team that made the Little League World Series. The United States just issued more blanket travel bans; banning Venezuelans from entering the United States would fit the stated policy objectives of the current administration. Such a ban would also be more justifiable in the face of an armed conflict (i.e., for national security reasons).

Chourio, Contreras, Monasterio, Quero, and Zerpa will most likely be back in the U.S. for spring training. These things have a way of working themselves out, no matter how convoluted the path may look. I should also quickly note that one of Wisconsin’s congressmen, Rep. Scott Fitzgerald, has also posted that he is hoping to assist with getting players back to the country.

Some things are bigger than baseball, and war is an awful thing. Hopefully, this is the last time I have to write about Venezuela.