Kansas State Basketball: Arizona Preview

Game Information

When: Wednesday, January 7th

Where: Tucson, Arizona – The McKale Center

What Time?:

2025-26 Season

Record: 14-0

Previous 3 Games

1/3: L W – 97 – 78 vs Utah @ Away

12/29: W- 99 – 71 vs South Dakota State @ Home

12/22: W – 107- 71 vs Bethune Cookman @ Home

Arizona Personnel

Starters

Bench

Key Analytics

(Per KenPom.com – National Rank in ())

KenPom Ranking – 2

Offense

Adjusted Efficiency: 125.3 (9)

Adjusted Tempo: 72.1 (32)

Average Possession Length: 15.7 (39)

Effective Field Goal%: 57.6 (20)

Offensive Rebound%: 41.8 (3)

Three Point%: 37.8 (31)

Two Point %: 57.9 (45)

Defense

Adjusted Efficiency: 90.9 (4)

Adjusted Tempo: 72.1 (32)

Average Possession Length: 17.5 (32)

Effective Field Goal%: 45.5 (24)

Offensive Rebound%: 24.7 (13)

Three Point%: 32.9 (143)

Two Point %: 43.5 (8)

Arizona Advantages

Adjusted Efficiency

Arizona Offense: 125.3 (9)

K-State Defense: 105.3 (102)

Notes

The Arizona Wildcats are the model of efficiency. They’re good on the inside and from deep. They can play fast or slow the pace and beat you on the boards. Meanwhile, K-State is merely OK at defense. That’s where they have to be elite under Jerome Tang, and this team isn’t. Sometimes, basketball isn’t a difficult game to understand.

Adjusted Efficiency

Arizona Defense: 90.9 (4)

K-State Offense: 116.9 (64)

Notes

In terms of offensive efficiency, the Wildcats aren’t bad. That’s not surprising because PJ Haggerty is a reasonably efficient player, and he has the ball in his hands most of the time. PJ is going to have to be on top of his game for K-State even to have a shot at keeping this one close. Arizona’s the type of team that can turn a 7-point lead into a 14-point lead in the blink of an eye. They keep scoring, and eventually, they find a way to stop you from scoring. All they need to do is string a couple of stops together, and the game can get out of hand.

Offensive Rebounding %

Arizona Offense: 39.7 (9)

K-State Defense: 32.3 (120)

The frustrating part about playing Arizona is that even when you manage to stop them, they get the rebound, try again, and rarely miss twice. They have elite size and athleticism in the front court and bring Tobe Awake, the current national leader in offensive rebounding percentage at 24.1% off the bench. Motiejus Krivas is a dominant offensive rebounder in his own right, at 16.8% (19). I didn’t even mention Koa Peat, who has an 8.5% (432) offensive rebounding percentage and may be the most athletic power forward in college basketball.

Kansas State doesn’t have a player with a defensive rebounding percentage in the Ken Pom top 500 and doesn’t really have much functional size in the front court. It’s going to need to be a team effort for the ‘Cats if they want to compete on the glass.

Kansas State Advantages

Three Point Shooting %

K-State Offense: 38.5 (23)

Arizona Defense: 32.9 (143)

If you’re looking for Kansas State to pull the upset, this is it, this is their puncher’s chance. Granted, sticking with the boxing analogy, this is Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua, and the odds of that punch landing are slim. In theory, if Bashir, Johnson, Castillo, and Haggerty all go bananas from three, maybe they can get Arizona to press and take some bad shots?

I don’t know, I’m looking for something positive, and according to KenPom, this is the only advantage Kansas State has over Arizona.

Brief Thoughts

Every time I write about this Kansas State team, I question how it was put together in the first place. Jerome Tang is never going to go into the portal and bring in better talent than Arizona can recruit. The list of teams in the Big 12 that can outspend the Wildcats is much longer, but if Coach Tang wants to turn this into a contest of who can put together the most talent in a one-off team, he’s never going to win in Manhattan. There are levels to college basketball recruiting, both in high school and in the portal, and these two teams do not shop in the same stores.

Arizona is ordering off the menu at the French Laundry, and K-State is perusing the offerings at the Golden Corral. Please, if you understand the philosophy behind how this team was assembled, please, for the love of God, explain it to me in the comment section, because I do not understand. With some teams, I can see the vision, even if the execution is lacking, but I don’t see Jerome Tang’s vision at all. I’m not sure how what he’s doing is supposed to result in a competitive Big 12 team.

I don’t know what else to say. This isn’t a good basketball team, and they’re about to face an elite basketball team. I’d suggest watching this one with a blanket over your head and a 12-pack of the most desperate-tasting beer you can procure at the ready. This isn’t a fancy IPA game; you’re going to need either Steel Reserve or Milwaukee’s Best Ice to get you through this thing.

Predictions

KenPom

Arizona: 94

Kansas State: 78

Drew

Arizona: 103

Kansas State 82

I’ve got the Wildcats cracking triple digits in this one. I’m not sure there is a player on Kansas State that would start for Arizona, including PJ Haggerty, because if Arizona wanted PJ Haggerty, they would have PJ Haggerty. Even if you put Haggerty in the top 5, Arizona will still have four of the best five players on the court at all times. Sometimes teams can overcome the talent gap with teamwork, hustle, and discipline, but K-State isn’t that sort of team.

PJ keeps things interesting early because this is the sort of game he gets up for, but it’s going to take more than hero ball to keep this thing close. I wish I had better news. I don’t enjoy writing about this team.