Of the current UFC champions, we pick who's our lock to make it through the year still holding their title.
Winning a UFC championship is one thing. But keeping it? That's something entirely different.
Consider the amount of UFC title turnover we experienced in 2025, with UFC titles changing hands 11 times, one short of the single calendar-year record of 12 in 2016. Last year, there were two champs who started on top and stayed there until the end – Tom Aspinall, who was interim heavyweight champ but later promoted to undisputed after Jon Jones relinquished the belt, and women's flyweight title holder Valentina Shevchenko.
Will there be two or more in 2026? Below are MMA Junkie staff members' picks for who is a lock to still be UFC champ through the end of the year.
Tom Aspinall
Yes, you read that right. Tom Aspinall is my lock to hold the UFC heavyweight title at the end of the year. Sure, the man might be nearly blind at the moment, but stay with me here … I’m predicting Aspinall will take his time recovering from his eye surgeries (which will go well, and he’ll fully recover) and will only fight once in the fourth quarter of 2026. In the meantime, Ciryl Gane will become a two-time interim champ by April. Then we’ll get Aspinall vs. Gane 2, and once again, Gane will come up short in his attempt to unify the title. Aspinall ends the year as champion.– Matthew Wells
Khamzat Chimaev
Khamzat Chimaev sits atop a UFC middleweight division that not only lacks surging contenders, but anything remotely stylistically challenging. Chimaev doesn't fight all too often, either. Throw in his recent foot surgery and his unavailability during Ramadan, and it's possible we only see him once in 2026. Either Nassourdine Imavov or Anthony Hernandez is likely the next man up and while I think both are underrated, they don't have the tools to get the job done. Besides them, there are a number of seasoned middleweight staples who already have blueprints out there for how to beat them.– Nolan King
*****
Khamzat Chimaev has proven that his grappling and wrestling is levels above the rest of the middleweight division. He also made cardio his focal point ahead of his title fight against Dricus Du Plessis, where he proved that he can go five rounds with no issues. Looking at the top five middleweights, there are some solid grapplers, but none can match the strength of Chimaev. If your best chance of beating Chimaev is banking on him gassing out, then I like his chances of remaining champion in 2026. Plus, he's fought once a year in the past three years, so I'm not expecting a super active title reign.– Farah Hannoun
*****
While the current group of UFC champions hold impressive records, only two remain undefeated. One of them is Khamzat Chimaev, my lock to never hear “and new” in 2026. This comes down to two things: strength of schedule and frequency of fights. 2020 was the only year Chimaev faced more than two fighters in one year. Nassourdine Imavov seems to be next and for Chimaev's second fight, should it happen, I anticipate him matching up with the winner of Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez. Hernandez would be the stronger opponent, but the factor that pulls me toward the word “lock” is Chimaev’s improvements. He continues to improve tightening the screws on his own game and in exchange, tightening his hold on the UFC middleweight division. That isn't changing this year.– Brian Garcia
Kayla Harrison
Saying Kayla Harrison still will be UFC champion by year’s end seems like a layup. It’s almost cheating. Like, this should not be allowed to be a pick because it’s too easy and too obvious. Amanda Nunes is the women’s GOAT, right? The best EVER is coming out of retirement, and Harrison is still a 2-1 favorite against her. If Nunes returned to fight anyone but Harrison, she’d be the favorite – and no doubt by a really, really big number. If Nunes came back and fought, say, Norma Dumont and was a 3-1 favorite – reasonable assumption – then how big of a favorite will Harrison be against anyone after she takes out Nunes? Sometimes, MMA math just works.– Matt Erickson
Islam Makhachev
It's bold but also boring. Yeah, Islam Makhachev closed 2025 as the UFC's No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter for the third year running. No one in UFC history has a longer winning streak than his. Why should we expect anything to change in 2026? That's the optimistic way to look at it. The pessimist, however, would argue the list of potential opponents has never been more daunting. Can he get through the new wave of 170-pound killers? That depends on if he fights them and how many times he puts the belt up for grabs. If Makhachev competes once in 2026 and it's against Kamaru Usman, that would be the worst-case scenario for the division but best-case scenario for this pick. If he gets two scheduled title defenses against any combination of Michael Morales, Ian Machado Garry, Shavkat Rakhmonov or Carlos Prates, then it's riskier, even though I rate Makhachev as the favorite in all those bouts.– Mike Bohn
Valentina Shevchenko
Valentina Shevchenko can join the elite company of Jon Jones (12), Demetrious Johnson (11) and Anderson Silva (10) as the only fighters in UFC history with double-digit title defenses. Though Shevchenko is 38 years old, she is still fighting at a high level. With an ever-improving ground game to match her world-class striking, along with her extensive experience in title fights, “Bullet” has the best chance to still be champion at the end of 2026. Her most likely upcoming foes are Erin Blanchfield and Natalia Silva, both formidable, but neither are as complete as Shevchenko. The real question is, will she break Jones’ record in late 2027 or early 2028?– George Garcia
Ilia Topuria
Dana White has already said that Ilia Topuria will return from his hiatus to unify the lightweight title against the winner of Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett, which goes down Jan. 24 at UFC 324. Assuming it plays out that way, Topuria will be a sizeable favorite against either man – and the matchup would only be easier if it's Gaethje, who would get pieced up by Topuria's boxing. As much as I love Paddy, the same also could happen to him given his tendency to stand upright in striking exchanges. After that, who knows? That could be Topuria's only fight of 2026 with the way he's slowed down since winning 2024 Male Fighter of the Year. If he fought a second time, it could be a superfight with Islam Makhachev at welterweight. But if it's against No. 1 contender Arman Tsarukyan, who remains in the UFC doghouse, it gets a little more difficult – but I would confidently still take Topuria at the top of his game against Tsarukyan coming off a another potentially long layoff. That's why he's my lock to remain champion through 2026.– Simon Samano
Petr Yan
Per usual, I'm the contrarian of the group as most folks tend to look at the more popular picks. So, just like I was the only one on staff to pick Petr Yan to beat Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 323, I'll be the only person to pick Yan as my lock to retain his title. Aside from being criminally underrated and avenging his one true loss in the UFC, I'm not sure I see any of the current contenders dethroning Yan unless he makes a mistake. Yan has the skills to match Umar Nurmagomedov and the cardio to shut him down, while Sean O’Malley – whom Yan beat in most people’s eyes the first time around – is much less confident and durable at this point of his career. Yan retains.– Dan Tom
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Which UFC champ is a lock to still hold their belt at the end of 2026?
Category: General Sports
