Miami vs. Mississippi player prop projections from Covers. Our Best CFP Semifinal computer picks for January 8, 2026.
The first College Football Playoff semifinal takes place at the Fiesta Bowl, where the 10th-seeded Miami Hurricanes face the No. 6 Mississippi Rebels.
Our college football player prop projections have identified the best CFP prop values for this matchup at State Farm Stadium, which includes a positive night for those betting on both teams' top receivers.
Miami vs Mississippi computer picks for CFP Semifinal
 Miami |  Mississippi |
|---|---|
| Beck o235.5 pass <<-114>> | Chambliss u264.5 pass <<-114>> |
| Fletcher u88.5 rush <<-114>> | Lacy u83.5 rush <<-114>> |
| Toney o57.5 rec <<-114>> | Wallace o52.5 rec <<-114>> |
| Marion o39.5 rec <<-114>> | Alexander o28.5 rec <<-114>> |
Miami computer picks
Carson Beck Over 235.5 passing yards (-114)
Projection: 237.28 yards
We're projecting Beck to finish just above his passing total against a defense that is a few tiers below his first two CFP opponents.
Mark Fletcher Under 88.5 rushing yards (-114)
Projection: 77.23 yards
The increased passing comes at the expense of Miami's star RB, who we're expecting to fall below his posted rushing yards line tonight.
🔥🏈Bet fletcher rushing yards now
Malachi Toney Over 57.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 70.53 yards
The star freshman struggled mightily against A&M and OSU, but we're projecting him to break out in the CFP semifinal.
Alternate-total bet
70+ yards (+148) - This prop shows good value.
🔥Bet toney receiving yards now
Keelan Marion Over 39.5 receiving yards
Projection: 47.43 yards
We're projecting the 'Canes WR2 to also finish above his yardage line, after finishing just below this number in the first two CFP matchups.
🔥Bet marion receiving yards now
Mississippi computer picks
Trinidad Chambliss Under 264.5 passing yards (-114)
Projection: 237.33 yards
This is the toughest defense Chambliss has faced in more than two months... and our projections expect his passing yards to fall well below his posted total.
🏈Bet chambliss passing yards now
Kewan Lacy Under 84.5 rushing yards (-114)
Projection: 82.38 yards
The same thing applies to the Rebels running back, as we're forecasting him to finish just below his rushing line.
Harrison Wallace III Over 52.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 61.98 yards
Wallace erupted for 156 yards against Georgia in the quarterfinals, and while we don't project a total that high, he should go beyond his yardage total tonight.
Alternate-total bet
60+ yards (+116) - This prop shows solid value.
🔥Bet wallace receiving yards now
Deuce Alexander Over 28.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 39.25 yards
Alexander was quiet last week, but had 181 yards in the two games prior — and we think he'll make a bigger impact in the semis.
Alternate-total bet
40+ yards (+154) - This price has decent value.
🔥Bet alexander receiving yards now
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
Category: General Sports
