It’s impossible to deny that Arráez arrived on the open market after his worst season in the majors.
While four of the top free-agent hitters remain unsigned, stuck in a high-stakes staring contest involving multiple parties and priorities, there’s also a second tier of position players still available on the open market as spring training approaches. Look farther down our Top 50 free agent rankings, and you’ll find several hitters who have played meaningful roles for contending teams in recent seasons, including an accomplished field general in J.T. Realmuto (No. 23), a prolific power hitter in Eugenio Suarez (No. 24), a rare right-handed-hitting outfielder in Harrison Bader (No. 30) and a consummate superutilityman in Willi Castro (No. 35).
But within this tier of bats expected to land major-league deals without breaking the bank, by far the most fascinating case is Luis Arráez (No. 26). An ultra-brief elevator pitch describing Arráez — “three-time batting champion who turns just 29 in April” — would certainly seem to be compelling. But Arráez’s severe lack of value added beyond his contact-hitting superpower and the fact that he is coming off his worst season in the majors have clearly left teams wary of investing in him as a free agent.
At the outset of the offseason, industry projections for Arráez’s contract were almost universally conservative, with MLB Trade Rumors, FanGraphs, The Athletic and ESPN all forecasting two-year deals ranging from $17 million to $30 million in total, a modest commitment for a player with some of Arráez’s accolades. The fact that he has remained on the market with virtually zero buzz about potential suitors suggests that it’s unlikely these forecasts will end up missing the mark by much.
Timing is everything in free agency, and it’s impossible to deny that Arráez arrived on the open market at the nadir of his value league-wide. As a result, perhaps he will opt for a one-year pillow contract that enables him to reenter the market immediately after a chance to reestablish himself as the valuable contact savant he was a few years ago.
In 2025, Arráez’s unparalleled ability to put the bat on the ball somehow leveled up further, as evidenced by his microscopic 3.1% strikeout rate, the lowest we’ve seen from a qualified hitter since Tony Gwynn in 1995. But Arráez got worse by nearly every other offensive measure, resulting in a career-low wRC+ of 104, a sharp decline from the 131 mark that ranked top-20 in MLB across 2022 and 2023. That’s still technically an above-average offensive line, but in tandem with poor defense at mostly first base, it amounted to just 0.9 fWAR across 154 games, which ranked 125th out of 145 qualified position players. Arráez didn’t even rank in the top 10 in the category he has dominated for years, with his .292 batting average also a career low.
Adding to the poor perception of Arráez’s performance was the role he was asked to play in San Diego as its primary No. 2 hitter. The 2-hole has increasingly become the spot in the batting order reserved for an offense’s best overall hitter, with teams prioritizing getting their best bats as many plate appearances as possible while maintaining the opportunity for those at-bats to come with runners on base. That means Arráez delivered his worst season while making the majority of his starts in this critical spot in the batting order: His .710 OPS when batting second ranked 18th among 18 hitters who received at least 300 plate appearances in that spot in 2025.
Of course, no matter where Arráez slots into the batting order, his output at the plate in 2025 was simply far below what most teams would deem a crucial cog in the lineup. At his best in Minnesota and Miami, Arráez demonstrated just enough power and patience to ensure that his overall slash line wasn’t strictly supported by a bloated batting average. More recently in San Diego, Arráez’s approach has turned hyper-aggressive, with very few walks mixed in, and even his modest underlying slugging potential has evaporated, with his already low barrel and hard-hit rates plummeting to depths that only he occupies.
Troubling trends aside, Arráez’s relative youth suggests that it might be premature to think he has no chance of restoring his value. If he can return to the more nuanced approach that made his unique, high-contact profile more palatable earlier in his career, whichever team signs him could reap significant benefits on a contract that isn’t expected to be hefty.
Beyond his unique batting profile, projecting a fit for Arráez in free agency is dependent on clubs’ interpretation of him as a defender, which has evolved in myriad ways throughout his career. As a prospect coming up in the Twins’ system, Arráez bounced around the infield, primarily playing second base but also spending time at shortstop and third, with some cameos in left field. That distribution largely continued once he arrived in the majors in 2019, but eventually, he shed the shortstop and outfield responsibilities and added first base to his repertoire.
In his first All-Star campaign in 2022, Arráez spent the majority of his reps at first base, and his blossoming bat earned 34 starts at DH. Then he was traded to Miami, and he returned to his prior post as the every-day second baseman in 2023, hitting a whopping .354 — the highest mark in MLB since Josh Hamilton hit .359 in 2010 — and finishing eighth in NL MVP voting. Traded again early in the 2024 season, this time to San Diego, Arráez’s time in the middle infield quickly dwindled, as he made just 16 starts at the keystone over his two seasons as a Padre, instead logging 112 starts at first base and 74 as the designated hitter.
This trajectory — and the consistently poor metrics he has posted at first and second because of his poor range — makes Arráez’s defensive outlook cloudy at best. Viewed more generously, the fact that he has extensive experience in the majors at multiple positions makes it difficult to sentence him to full-time DH duty before he has even turned 30. To be fair, the best version of Arráez, the hitter, is arguably worth every-day at-bats at DH, even if the slugging output isn’t what’s usually associated with the role. But in all likelihood, because it has become ultra-rare for teams to commit the DH spot to one individual, the team that signs Arráez will have some level of comfort with him getting playing time in the field.
In Milwaukee, Arráez could be an interesting left-handed complement at first base to Andrew Vaughn, and he’d maybe snag some DH starts when Christian Yelich plays the outfield, but the Brewers likely value defense too much to target him. If Mike Trout can handle the outfield with any amount of frequency, the Angels — who badly need left-handed hitters — could offer Arráez regular at-bats at DH and perhaps second base. Or Arráez might want to restore his value on a rebuilding team with guaranteed at-bats available, in which case Washington and Colorado could be decent fits as well. Go hit .400 at Coors Field, Luis!
With so many unknowns, we could speculate on Arráez landing spots all day long. And if the cost ends up being as moderate as projected, a wide swath of teams could be realistic suitors. But no matter where Arráez lands, his fit on his new roster promises to be a fascinating spring training storyline to watch. And whether he can get back to being a legitimately productive player — not just a one-trick pony — will go a long way in determining how satisfied both sides will be with his contract.
Category: General Sports
