Northwestern’s path to an upset rests on rebounding discipline, ball movement and late-game composure.
Northwestern let its best shot at its first Big Ten slip away Sunday at Rutgers, coughing up another late lead and falling in overtime. Now the challenge gets even harder with the No. 13 Illinois Fighting Illini coming to Evanston and riding off a 2-0 week. Illinois is one of the nation’s best offenses and also has a backcourt that has proven itself capable of closing games.
The tide is against the ’Cats heading into Wednesday night, but with clean execution, finished defensive possessions, and a composed late‑game offense, Northwestern has a real chance to shock the conference with a fourth straight win over the Illini at Welsh‑Ryan Arena.
Manage the second-chance damage
This might be a big ask, given how poor Northwestern’s rebounding has been through four conference games, but it’s a crucial one against a big Illinois squad. According to KenPom, the Illini rank first in the country in average height at 79.5 inches (or around 6-foot-8). Led by forward David Mirkovic and the 7-foot twins from Croatia, Zvonimir and Tomislav Ivišić, Illinois records the 14th-most rebounds per game in the country with an average of 42.3. It also allows just 31.1 per game, which ranks 35th overall. This rebounding prowess is especially evident on offense, where the team creates second-chance opportunities 39.1% of the time, which is 12th nationally.
With Illinois being so elite on the glass, winning on the boards might be out of the question, but managing them so they don’t lose you the game could be a step in the right direction. That means everyone has to crash the boards: consistent box-outs from Arrinten Page and Nick Martinelli, clean-up duty from the guards and wings and smarter floor balance to limit tip-ins from the bigs or kickouts to shooters. Shrinking those extra opportunities could be enough to keep Illinois from running away with the game.
Win with ball movement
Don’t bank on Northwestern getting to the line tomorrow. Through 16 games, Illinois ranks No. 1 in the country at keeping opponents off the charity stripe, with an FTA/FGA average of 19.4. It also ranks in the top 25 in opponent effective field-goal percentage.
The counter isn’t the hero ball Martinelli has been forced to play in the last couple of games; it’s a fast tempo and sharing the ball. Let Jayden Reid set the table on offense, feed Martinelli early in the possession and keep the Illini defense moving with second-side actions until a clean look opens up.
This plays directly into NU’s identity, which has the nation’s best turnover rate and a top-10 assist rate. With Northwestern’s three-point shooting varying in effectiveness from game to game, the difference will come from timing and flow within the possession, not volume.
Solve the late-game woes
Northwestern’s biggest opponent hasn’t been any of its Big Ten peers; it’s been the final minutes of games. The last outing at Rutgers is a prime example: the ’Cats let a one-point lead slip after an unforced error, multiple missed box-outs and four missed free throws in the final 1:38 of overtime.
Illinois has already proved to be the wrong team to give those opportunities to. In its last game in Iowa City, the Illini closed out a tight one against the then-No. 19 Hawkeyes, 75-69. Behind the play of Kylan Boswell and first-year Keaton Wagler, the team executed in the half-court offense and buried free throws when it mattered.
Northwestern’s approach at the end of games has to tighten up without it becoming frantic. Possessions mean more in crunch time, which makes getting into sets early and avoiding turnovers crucial. Late looks should be manufactured, not improvised, and trusting proven playmakers like Martinelli and Reid will help limit indecision in those situations.
The nerves should, in theory, be lighter with the home crowd behind the Wildcats, but composure at the charity stripe has to be there to avoid another Rutgers situation. Late-game mistakes have been troubling, but there’s still plenty of season left. If Northwestern turns these errors into lessons for Wednesday, the ’Cats can carve a path to their first Big Ten win.
Category: General Sports
