Cavs lack of consistency is their real problem

If you gave me an open three-point shot in an empty gym, there’s a chance that I could make it. And if I did, it wouldn’t mean I’m a good shooter. The ability to make a three wouldn’t make me a good shooter. It’s how often you make the shot that does.

In sports, consistency is what determines the quality of an individual player or team. That’s what ultimately separates the mediocre from good and the good from great. Numerous players can match Steph Curry’s shooting numbers on a given night. But the difference between them and Curry is that Curry reaches those heights much more consistently than anyone else.

This is the issue with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

We know they can beat good teams. They’ve done so with impressive wins over the Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, Phoenix Suns, and Minnesota Timberwolves. But if those wins aren’t followed by a consistent standard of play, there’s no reason to take this team seriously as a title contender, which is what everyone came into the season expecting them to be.

Good teams enforce their style of play every night. There’s a clear blueprint of what they want to do. Whether or not they win comes down to talent and execution.

The Cavaliers still don’t have that.

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They’ll tell you that they’re a defensive-first team, yet they’re 14th in defensive rating due to their undisciplined play. Their defense wants to and does force turnovers, but their poor defensive rotations and lack of clear communication lead to consistent breakdowns elsewhere.

Offensively, they’re at their best in a movement offense that buries their opponent with threes. That’s the formula that led to the Cavs having the second-best offensive rating of all time last season.

They came into this season emphasizing the three-ball as they were first in the league in three-point attempts from the start of the season until Dec. 1. They’ve since abandoned that formula as they’re ninth in outside attempts per game in the last month and a half, and they’re taking over five fewer threes per game. This shift has coincided with a slightly better offense. The Cavs were 14th in offensive rating until Dec. 1 and have been eighth since, but their record hasn’t improved as they’re 10-10 in their last 20 outings. They’re still far from being the offensive juggernaut they were last season, and don’t have a path to getting back there since this team was constructed to beat teams with their three-point shooting, and they aren’t doing that anymore.

Without a consistent style of play, their wins, even the good ones, have felt random and unrepeatable. That’s how you can go from beating the Pistons by over 20 points to losing to the Boston Celtics the next game by nearly the same margin, or go from taking care of the Timberwolves to losing to the Utah Jazz by double figures.

This shows up most in how the Cavs have played against the worst teams. The Cavaliers are 18th in point differential against the bottom 10 teams in net rating with a 10-4 record. By comparison, top teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder (15-2), the Timberwolves (16-2), and the New York Knicks (10-2) thrive in these situations.

Serious contenders don’t handle their business against some good teams and sleepwalk through games against lesser opponents. And, teams that have had no form of playoff success don’t have magic switches that they can flip in the postseason. The consistency you display in the regular season is often tied to playoff success.

The Cavs have been a completely mediocre team through the first half of the season. That can change over the second half, but there’s no evidence to suggest that it will. And each performance, like their recent loss to the Jazz, makes it harder to overturn the bad habits that have seeped through over 41 uneven performances.

If it is going to change, they will need to find or rediscover an identity and playing style that has been lacking all season. And, that playing style will need to transfer to every game they play, despite who’s in the lineup, and isn’t dependent on whether they’re making or missing shots.

Any team can win one game or have a few good showings. The best do it every night. Until the Cavs show that they can transfer whatever style of play they choose over several games, weeks, or months, there’s no reason to believe in this group. And they’re running short on time to do so.