What can Garrett Riley do for you?

On January 26th, 2019, LSU head coach Ed Orgeron hired NFL assistant coach Joe Brady to be the Tiger’s passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach. Under 1st-year offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger, the LSU offense had been predictably excellent at running the ball but completely scatter shot when attempting to utilize Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow in the passing game. Orgeron knew he had recruited enough talented, NFL-caliber receivers to his team, and fully believed in Burrow’s potential, but also recognized Ensminger’s passing concepts were stale, predictable, and not allowing the talent to flourish, so he imported some help.

With Brady’s assistance – and, of course, otherworldly, NFL Pro Bowl-level receiver talent – the Tiger’s passing offense broke two FBS passing records en route to a Heisman trophy for Joe Burrow and a National Championship for Orgeron and LSU.

Why did I say all of that?

Because smaller, unassuming changes can make a big difference.

Such as: Missouri right now! I’ve made my thoughts clear on the hiring of Chip Lindsey and his lunkheaded, uninspiring run-oriented offensive scheme. But lunkheads still want to win, and having someone else in the offensive planning that knows passing really well and can help craft some new schemes to pair with the run game? That matters. And can make noticeable changes.

Enter: Garrett Riley.

The younger brother of USC head coach Lincoln Riley, Garrett made a name for himself when he partnered up with air raid-aficionado Sonny Dykes at SMU and, later, TCU. Together they crafted three devastating offenses that were able to blend tempo, throwing, and strategic running to great affect, especially as they boat raced Michigan in the 2022 Playoff (don’t ask what happened afterwards!). Riley’s meteoric rise with those offenses lead to a rare, “out of the family” hire by Dabo Swinney at Clemson, where Riley had been since 2023.

I might not like the choice but Missouri already has an OC, so what are they doing with Riley The Younger?

Despite the “official” staff openings of quarterbacks coach and tight end coach, my bet is that they’re bringing Riley in as a “pass game coordinator” who will be responsible for upgrading a passing offense that was openly criticized by Greg McElroy on national tv. And while the title and influence will most likely remain unknown to us on the outside, my thinking is that he’s going to be very active in making sure the 2026 Missouri Tigers can throw and catch the ball with some competence.

So let’s take a look at Riley’s six offenses that he’s fielded in his six years as a coordinator. Specifically, let’s scope out the heavier stats in the passing game to get a better idea of what he likes to do, and potentially project that to what he will do in Columbia.

Here are some definitions before we start:

Success Rate: a play is defined as successful if gains at least 50% of necessary yardage on 1st-down, 70% of necessary yardage on 2nd-down, and 100% of necessary yardage on 3rd- and 4th-down. Efficiency/success rate is by far the most replicable and least random aspect of football; big plays and turnovers decide games but are incredibly random by nature, and therefore efficiency plays the biggest role in determining overall success.

Explosiveness: a play is defined as explosive if it is a run that gains 12 yards or more, or a pass that gains 16 yards or more. When offenses, especially in college, are on the field for long drives they tend to make drive killing plays (turnovers, penalties, big loses, etc.) more often than not. Big plays reduce the amount of plays an offense is on the field, reduce chances for drive killing plays, and are paramount to a team’s success.

Completion Rate: you know this one! The number of passes a quarterback throws that are caught by his receivers divided by the total number of passes the quarterback throws.

Air Yards Per Pass Attempt: this one can be self-explanatory if you know what it’s telling you! Simply, this stat is a measure of how many yards the football travels in the air, from the line of scrimmage, regardless of whether the pass was completed. So if the ball is snapped at the 50 yard line and the receiver is at the 40 yard line when the ball arrives, that’s 10 Air Yards — even if the pass was incomplete. It gives you some context on where and how an offense likes to utilize the passing game, i.e. short passes that gain yards after the catch, or deep shots that require precision (and some freak athleticism/luck).

Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass (ANY/A): a stat that measures quarterback efficiency by factoring in passing yards, touchdowns (+20 yards), interceptions (-45 yards), and sack yardage lost, divided by total pass attempts (plus the sacks, obviously). Just another efficiency number in a sport where efficiency is the goal! Once a quarterback is averaging over 11 you’re talking elite territory, anything at 7 or lower is problematic.

With that out of the way, here are Garrett Riley’s passing offenses by season:

The first thing that jumps out to me: TCU was an outlier. Dykes and Riley inherited a very old offense that had been playing together for awhile and utilized a more explosive-based, deep-shot oriented passing offense to rip through XII defenses. It features his lowest success rate and highest explosive rate, as well as his second-best air yards per attempt. That all screams “big plays only” in the passing game.

The second thing I notice is that – outside of the aforementioned TCU – these Riley passing offenses are basically the Missouri passing offense under Eli Drinkwitz and Kirby Moore (on paper, anyway). Completion rates in the mid-60s, air yards under 10, ANY/A under 10…this is what we’re used to from the Mizzou passing game.

So, if you’re looking for a shake up in passing philosophy, this is a bummer of a discovery, as Riley has shown a propensity to think about passing attacks the same way as Drinkwitz and Moore.

The other stat that backs this up (and I didn’t include in the above chart) is the frequency of the routes and positions Riley’s quarterbacks target the most.

And for the past three years at Clemson, Riley has been throwing passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage over 70% of the time.

Here’s the breakdown:

• Percentage of passes with <0 air yards: 28.8%
• Percentage of passes with 1-10 air yards: 42.3%
• Percentage of passes with 11-19 air yards: 17.5%
• Percentage of passes with 20+ air yards: 11.4%

Meanwhile, here’s what those numbers look like for Missouri in 2025:

• Percentage of passes with <0 air yards: 27.1%
• Percentage of passes with 1-10 air yards: 47.0%
• Percentage of passes with 11-19 air yards: 16.0%
• Percentage of passes with 20+ air yards: 9.9%

It’s pretty dang close, is the point.

So, again, if you were hoping Riley would come in here and start an install on the 4-verts, deep-shot, All-PI based offense, that’s not going to happen. His recent history dictates a belief that passes should be short and easily caught so athletes at the receiver position can make a play and gain a ton of yards after the catch.

You know, the style that worked really well for Luther Burden and… that’s it.

But, if you view this as an additional cook in the kitchen, and one who knows good route concepts thanks to his time with Sonny Dykes, then you can see a good pairing of concepts in the throwing and running department to make the tweaks necessary for this offense to work.

I don’t know if it will.

But it’s better than just relying on Chip f***ing Lindsey.