Following the money: UFC 324 betting line movements tracker | Gaethje vs. Pimblett

UFC 324 is happening this weekend (Sat., Jan. 24, 2025) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV and broadcast, for the very first time, on Paramount+. The first main event of the non PPV era is Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett for the interim UFC Lightweight title.

The co-main event spot was supposed to have the women’s Bantamweight belt on the line with Kayla Harrison welcoming back Amanda Nunes. Neck surgery for Harrison put an end to that. Instead we now have men’s Bantamweights in that slot with Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong.

Rounding out the rest of the main card is Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis, Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva and Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas.

UFC 323’s “Prelims” are headlined by Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo. The Prelims also have Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson and Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez.

I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 324 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you’ll find all the line movement between Monday and this time of writing (Friday morning).

UFC 324 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Justin Gaethje (+188 +4.2%) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-235 -0.6%)

The lines on this main event haven’t changed much at all, other than on November 27th where there was a brief spike of activity in favor of Justin Gaethje. That activity saw his line dip to +168 and Pimblett’s lengthen to -205. Since then, though, the lines have steadily been shifting back to those opening numbers.

It seems Vegas and most the public are pretty set on Pimblett being a moderate favorite in this interim title bout.

Gaethje opened at +176. That’s the second time in a row he opened with plus odds. He was +112 in his rematch with Rafael Fiziev last March and closed at +136. Both Vegas and the public were wrong about that fight.

Vegas was wrong about Gaethje at UFC 300, too, setting his opening line at -278 (and Max Holloway’s at +225). The public were right to fade him there, though. His line closed at around -180 before he suffered that epic buzzer-beating KO.

Vegas were wrong about Pimblett in his last fight, too. He opened at +114 against Michael Chandler, but the public were right to bet him down to around -160. Something similar happened in the King Green fight, where Pimblett opened at +160 and closed at around -190. And back when Pimblett got his odd decision win over Jared Gordon, he opened at +125 and closed at -242. So there’s a pattern here of Vegas sometimes doubting the Liverpudlian and then a lot of public money shifting the line (probably public money from Liverpool and close by).

Because of how much support Pimblett gets from a very betting friendly fanbase, we should take some of the big swings in his line movement with a grain of salt. Even so, it could be notable that this time around there is probably enough money coming in on Gaethje’s underdog odds to keep Pimblett’s line in check (despite there probably being a lot of money coming in for him, too).

If Vegas is right, then the brash Englishman walks out of their hometown with a gold belt around his waist. If the public is right, though, it might not be an easy fight for the Baddy.

Sean O’Malley (-220 +10.2%) vs. Song Yadong (+168 -30.6%)

Sean O’Malley opened as a -300 favorite for this fight but, as you can see, the public thinks this is a much closer fight than that. He’s still a moderate favorite, but Song Yadong has been transformed from a big+250 underdog to a slight one at +168.

The public were right when they backed Song to beat Henry Cejudo. And they were right to fade him when he fought Petr Yan.

In O’Malley’s last fight, his rematch with Merab Dvalishvili, he opened at +225 and had a tiny bit of public support. His line closed around +200 for that one. He was then dominated by Dvalishvili. In their first fight O’Malley famously opened at +164 underdog odds, but public support for him turned that fight into a pick ‘em.

It’s a little strange to see the public change their tune on O’Malley for this fight. I guess they’re not giving him much grace for losing, two times in a row, to one of the greatest ever Bantamweights.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-319 -14.3%) vs. Derrick Lewis (+249 +22.6%)

Vegas had this fight a lot closer than this when the lines opened. Derrick Lewis was a +170 underdog and Waldo Cortes-Acosta was a -200 favorite. As you can see a lot of support has since come in for Cortes-Acosta. I can see why, too. In the last few months Cortes-Acosta has shifted his own narrative to turn himself into a fun and potent potential Heavyweight challenger.

This activity is close to what we saw in Lewis’ last fight, against Tallison Teixeira. He opened as the +175 dog for that and the public faded him enough to have him close at around +200. Lewis would then wipe out Teixieira for the quick win (albeit with an early looking stoppage).

Cortes-Acosta seems like a tougher challenge than the inexperienced Teixeira, though.

Arnold Allen (+221 +28.3%) vs. Jean Silva (-283 -23.3%)

There’s a lot of Jean Silva fans out there, still. The Fighting Nerds product opened at -150 and the public jumped all over that to now have him on track to close at around -300. This is despite us seeing him get bloodied and badly beaten by Diego Lopes in his last fight (a fight he opened as the -200 favorite).

It’s taken a while for Vegas to come around on Silva. He opened as the underdog in his fights with Kevin Vallejos, Charles Jourdain and Drew Dober.

Arnold Allen is on track for the longest odds of his UFC career. Against Movsar Evloev he closed at around +150 and against Max Holloway he closed at around +140. He lost both those fights, but it still seems a little unusual to consider Silva a much bigger favorite against Allen than those two previous names.

Silva’s fan friendly style might have something to do with this, though. That paired against Allen’s pretty nondescript personally and well-rounded, yet not particularly exciting, fight style might be conspiring together here to bring in lots of public money on Lord.

Natalia Silva (-404 -34.1%) vs. Rose Namajunas (+308 +43.6%)

It seems a lot of people think Natalia Silva is for real and that she will beat her third former champion in a row on Saturday night. She opened as a modest -150 favorite opposite the +130 underdog Namajunas, but those lines have changed a ton since then.

The public were right about Silva in her last two fights. Against Alexa Grasso she opened at -186 and closed at -230. And against Jessica Andrade she opened at -148 and closed at -275.

I’m quite surprised to see so much money going against Rose Namajunas, especially since she’s one of the most recognizable names on the card. It’s also surprising since the public backed her to Miranda Maverick, helping her go from a -200 favorite to a -245 favorite. Clearly the public sees a lot of difference in a Maverick versus a Silva.

UFC 324 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Umar Nurmagomedov (-1586 -5.8%) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+950 +32%)

Umar Nurmagomedov is our biggest favorite on the card, by a long way. He opened at -800 for this fight, but his line has shrunk down to a extremely short -1500. And that’s all despite him facing a former UFC champ who has shown to be a tough out at Bantamweight.

Being a big favorite is nothing new for Nurmagomedov. He’s been the favorite in every UFC fight he’s had. And he’s seen public money shorten his odds in all but one fight (his win over Sergey Morozov).

Figueiredo has been nowhere close to these kinds of odds in his career. Though, he has opened with plus odds in his prior three fights; a win over Montel Jackson and losses to Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. The public were wrong to fade him against Jackson, but right to do it in the other two bouts.

Ateba Gautier (-874 +0.2%) vs. Andrey Pulyaev (+650 -3.2%)

Ateba Gautier’s massive favorite line is holding steady here. He’s used to these extremely short odds. Against short replacement opponent Treston Vines last year he opened at -1100 and closed at around -2000. And those odds were only available for around 48 hours.

Gautier was faded slightly when he fought Jose Medina. He opened at -59 for that and closed in the -400s. He would then batter Medina for a quick win.

Andrey Pulyaev has been the underdog in two of his previous UFC appearances. In his last fight, a body kick KO over Nick Klein he opened with pick ‘em odds, but closed as the very slight favorite.

Nikita Krylov (+120 -22.7%) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (-146 +11%)

Nikita Krylov opened at +170 odds and, for some reason, those odds have come down due to public support. I’m baffled as to why. Krylov has looked like a fighter trying to get out of his contract lately after suffering devastating losses to both Dominick Reyes and Bogdan Guskov.

Bukauskas is on a nice little run with some big finishes. I’m a little shocked that his line hasn’t shifted to something like -300.

UFC 324 Early “Prelims”

Alex Perez (+150 -8%) vs. Charles Johnson (-170 +2.4%)

There’s not much change to speak of here. I’m a little surprised to see Charles Johnson open as the favorite. I thought this might be a pick ‘em.

Johnson was the underdog in his last fight, opening with +186 odds against Lone’er Kavanagh and closed at around +200. He then dropped and finished Kavanagh. Johnson also won as an underdog in his famous win over Joshua Van. He opened at +170 for that fight and closed around +200.

Alexander Hernandez (-148 +21.2%) vs. Michael Johnson (+121 -59.8%)

Wow, there’s been a lot of movement on this line. Alexander Hernandez opened as the big -300 favorite against Michael Johnson, who opened at +250. But the public are loving this run Johnson is on lately, which included a big upset over Daniel Zellhuber (where he was +555). Maybe some folks who cased that bet against Zellhuber are back hoping for another big windfall from ‘The Menace’.

Personally, I like Hernandez in this fight and think his run has been even more impressive than Johnson’s. The public, though, for whatever reason aren’t sold on the streaking fighter. He opened at -150 against Diego Ferreira in his last fight, but closed in pick ‘em range. He then stopped Ferreira. He also opened at +210 when he fought Chase Hooper and was faded by the public. He then stopped Hooper.

Will this be another case of the public being very wrong on Hernandez?

Josh Hokit (-230 -3%) vs. Denzel Freeman (+186 +2.1%)

There’s been hardly any movement on this line. It seems everyone is fine with Josh Hokit being a moderate favorite against fellow relative newcomer Denzel Freeman. These are the closest odds Hokit has ever seen in his career, though. That’s probably due to Freeman’s bona fides as a former LFA champion.

Ricky Turcios (+154 -51.6%) vs. Cameron Smotherman (-189 +15.9%)

We’ve got another massive shift here. Ricky Turcios opened as the +385 favorite. I found that shocking and, it seems, so did a decent portion of the public. Turcios has now been bet down to +150. Smotherman’s opening line of -350 (his biggest ever) is now more sensible at -189.

Adam Fugitt (+338 +20.1%) vs. Ty Miller (-443 -8.8%)

Adam Fugitt opened at +250, but a lot of folks think he’s being brought in to play the nail against the hammer that is Ty Miller, fresh from Contender Series.

UFC 324 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 324:

• Michael Johnson: From +250 underdog to a +120 underdog (-59.8%) (C)
• Ricky Turcios: From +285 underdog to a +154 underdog (+51.6%) (C)
• Rose Namajunas: From +130 underdog to +308 underdog (+43.6%) (A)
• Natalia Silva: From -150 favorite to a -250 favorite (-34.1%) (E)
• Deivson Figueiredo: From +550 underdog to a +856 underdog (+32%) (A)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 8-48.

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 14-10.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 3-8.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 6-5.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 4-3.

F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 2-0.

UFC 324 Best Underdogs Bets

I like Andrey Pulyaev on Saturday night. I think he’s a big step up for Ateba Gautier and that he’ll be first guy that Gautier won’t be able to just melt after a couple of stages. Pulyaev was able to fight smart and frustrate Christian Leroy Duncan. For the odds you can get on him, I think he’s worth a look at someone who might prove that the hype on Gautier is getting a little out of control right now.

The other dog I like on this card is Ricky Turcios. He’s more well rounded than Cameron Smotherman and, like the public, I’m shocked to see him open as such a big underdog.

Enough about me, though. What do you think? Tell me your favorite dogs on this card.

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