The good, the bad, and the s—t that gets you beat from Patriots’ win over Broncos

Ahead of last summer’s training camp, New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel explained that he was looking at his team’s performances in three distinct categories. There is the good, the bad, and, as he called it, the s—t that gets you beat.

The Patriots’ 10-7 win over the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game featured a mix off all three. So, if the coach wants to look at his team through those categories, who are we to disagree? Let’s break down the game in exactly that manner.

The good: Defensive pressure

Despite the low final score, there was a lot to like about the Patriots’ performance on Sunday. Their offense held onto the football for the first time in the playoffs, they blocked a field goal, and they registered some big plays on the defensive side of the ball.

Those big plays primarily came as a result of something we identified as a key to the game beforehand: putting pressure on Denver quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who had not attempted a single pass during the regular season but was asked to filled in for injured starter Bo Nix. The Patriots managed to do just that, despite going up against one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL this season.

Stidham was sacked three times and disrupted on 35% of his total dropbacks on Sunday, and the effects of the pressure started to show by the second quarter. His decision making process was noticeably sped up, something that contributed to what was arguably the game’s biggest play, trying to toss the ball away while avoiding a sack, only to throw it backwards as a fumble recovered by New England.

From there, things started to snowball. With stalwart interior linemen Milton Williams and Christian Barmore leading the way, the Patriots made life miserable for Stidham and the Broncos offense all day.

The numbers reflect this. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Stidham went 16-of-21 for 129 yards with a touchdown when not pressured. In pressure situations, on the other hand, he finished 1-of-10 for 4 yards with that lost fumble and an interception to Christian Gonzalez.

The bad: Coverage breakdowns

The Patriots defense held the Broncos in check for most of the afternoon, and when all was said and done had surrendered only 181 yards and seven points. Those points, however, were the direct result of a pair of coverage breakdowns involving the aforementioned Christian Gonzalez as well as safety Jaylinn Hawkins.

On the first of the two plays, the Patriots rotated to a quarters coverage look but Marvin Mims Jr. was able to get behind the defense for a 52-yard gain. Gonzalez seemingly expected deep help on the play, while Hawkins was too shallow to provide it — either by focusing too much on the interior receiver or by reading Jarrett Stidham rather than properly execute his assignment.

Two plays later, a similar mishap allowed Courtland Sutton to get wide open in the end zone for an uncontested touchdown. Again, Hawkins seemed like the primary culprit although it is difficult to assign blame without knowing the exact call.

Either way, the Patriots giving up two big plays on apparent miscommunication is not necessarily what you would like to see. And while they did improve from that point on and ended up putting the clamps on Denver’s passing offense, it is something that needs to be ironed out ahead of the Super Bowl.

The s—t that gets you beat: Offensive efficiency

The Patriots knew that they would be in for a tough battle against the best pass rushing defense in the NFL this season, and early on the game looked the part. On their first four drives to start the game, they managed only two first downs and 36 total yards, and had to punt the ball away each time.

Things got better on their fifth possession, but only because the defense provided the unit with some prime field position: the Patriots took over on the Denver 12-yard line after Jarrett Stidham’s lost fumble recovered by New England rookie Elijah Ponder. They needed only two plays after the takeaway to find the end zone and tie the game at 7-7.

That sequence brought the Patriots back into the game, but it did not give their offense a particular boost. It ended up gaining only 24 yards and one first down on its subsequent two possessions, ending the half with a missed field goal.

To its credit, the unit did look better in the third quarter and began moving down the field on two straight, time-consuming possessions. Ultimately, however, those and the rest of the game only produced three more points for the Patriots.

On the day, they therefore registered only 3.2 yards and -0.14 expected points per play with a 31% success rate overall and a 33% conversion rate on third downs. While the circumstances contributed to those numbers, the Patriots need to find a way to get their offense going with the Super Bowl on the horizon.