Washington Men’s Basketball at #9 Illinois: Game Preview & How to Watch

How to Watch (and bet)

Date: Thursday, 1/29/26

Tip-Off Time: 6:00 pm PT

TV: FS1

Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR

Location: Seattle, Washington

Betting Line: Washington Huskies +12.5

Illinois Fighting Illini 2025-26 Statistics:

Record: 17-3 (8-1)

Points For per Game: 85.5 (25th)

Points Against per Game: 68.3 (41st)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 130.4 (1st)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 99.1 (29th)

Strength of Schedule: 19th

Illinois Key Players:

G- Keaton Wagler, Fr. 6’6, 185:17.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.0 apg, 47.7% FG, 43.5% 3pt, 82.6% FT

Evanmiya.com Stats: +8.6 BPR (22nd nationally)

Wagler is one of the all-time outliers in modern college basketball. He was the #150 ranked freshman in the class of 2025 and yet has clearly been a top-25 player in the entire country among all classes as demonstrated by his 46-point demolition of Purdue last weekend. Wagler is a 6’6 3-star freshman point guard who is 12th nationally in offensive efficiency. He hardly ever turns the ball over, is a lights out 3-point shooter, draws a ton of fouls, and can make every pass. Just an amazing season so far.

G- Jake Davis, Jr. 6’6, 215: 4.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 0.7 apg, 44.0% FG, 41.5% 3pt, 75.0% FT

Evanmiya.com Stats: +3.9 BPR (406th nationally)

Davis has been thrust into the starting lineup with the recent injury to starting guard Kylan Boswell. But that’s not necessarily that bad of a thing because Davis is 2nd(!) nationally in offensive efficiency. He absolutely never turns the ball over with just 2 giveaways all season and is the epitome of a 3-point sniper. Over 80% of his attempts this season have been from behind the arc and is a career 40% shooter to justify it. Davis has good size at 6’6 but adds almost nothing from a defense/rebounding standpoint so is exclusively a 5th option floor spacer. Still nice to have.

F- Andrej Stojakovic, Jr. 6’7, 215: 13.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 apg, 50.0% FG, 26.3% 3pt, 81.8% FT

Evanmiya.com Stats: +4.5 BPR (279th nationally)

Stojakovic was the final piece of the puzzle for Illinois in the transfer portal after transferring from Stanford to Cal to now the Illini. The 3-point shot has just never really developed and is at a career low right now but it’s okay because Stojakovic has been great at the rim and in the midrange. The rebounding and steal numbers are lower than you’d like but he’s still clearly an additive player and has the length to bother opponents on the other end even if he isn’t the best defender in the world.

F- David Mirkovic, Fr, 6’9, 250: 12.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.6 apg, 47.4% FG, 37.5% 3pt, 80.6% FT

Evanmiya.com Stats: +7.0 BPR (72nd nationally)

Mirkovic was an offseason Euro import from Montenegro and has been a really nice addition for Illinois. His assist rate is really high for your average power forward and he’s both a very good rebounder and three-point shooter. His block rate is about what you’d expect for your average 6’4 shooting guard so he offers no rim protection but is big enough to still both Hannes Steinbach in that matchup.

C- Tomislav Ivisic, Jr. 7’1, 255: 10.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 49.2% FG, 36.8% 3pt, 70.4% FT

Evanmiya.com Stats: +7.0 BPR (70th nationally)

The key to the Illinois offense is the Croatian brother duo of Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic who combine to play nearly 100% of the center minutes for Illinois. Tomislav starts has been better on the offensive end while Zvonimir is 2nd in the country in block rate as the rim protector. Both are shooting at least 67% on 2-pointers and almost exactly 36% on 3-pointers which makes them wildly efficient.

The Outlook

It’s safe to say that the all-Balkan roster makeover has worked out pretty well for Illinois and head coach Brad Underwood. There were thoughts in the offseason that Illinois would end up with 5 of their top 6 players who have a last name ending in “ic”: Mihailo Petrovic, Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic, and Zvonimir Ivisic. The only player not of that background was projected to be Kylan Boswell (Stojakovic was born in the US but is the son of former Serbian NBA star Peja Stojakovic so you can’t so the only American).

Almost every aspect of that remodel has worked except for Petrovic. He hasn’t been close to a starting caliber point guard and has fallen out of the rotation thanks to a ton of turnovers and poor shooting. That might have doomed many teams to underachieve. Except enter Keaton Wagler.

No one could’ve predicted that a three-star freshman would not only start for Illinois at point guard but legitimately enter the All-American conversation and become a top-ten NBA draft pick. That just doesn’t happen. Wagler is the engine behind an offense that is not just #1 in the country per KenPom but the best in KenPom’s database which goes back to 1997. That will likely drop off a bit at some point but the Illini are an absolute machine.

It looked like Illinois might only be so-so after they dropped to 8-3 following a home loss to Nebraska. That loss obviously looks better in hindsight and Illinois has won 9 straight since then. They’re now 3-3 against top-20 KenPom teams and 14-0 against everyone else. Not exactly encouraging for Washington.

As mentioned above, the success revolves around the Illinois offense. They take over half of their shots from beyond the 3-point arc and play five legitimate shooting threats at almost all times. Illinois will absolutely bomb it from deep and shoot 36% as a team from that range. They’ve made at least 10 three-point shots in 11 of their last 12 games. That’s compared to Washington who have hit that mark just 3 times all season (although they notably did it in their last game against Oregon). The math says it’s really hard to out-shoot them.

Even when Illinois does miss a shot, they get it back almost half the time. Illinois is 4th nationally in offensive rebounding rate thanks to being the tallest team in the country with a rotation made entirely of players 6’6 or taller that aggressively crash the glass. That usually leads to kick outs and more three-point attempts rather than easy putbacks but they do shoot 58.4% (25th nationally) on two-point shots when they do decide to shoot it from close range. Oh, and if you foul them then they make nearly 80% of their free throws which ranks 4th nationally.

So they take and make a lot of three-pointers. And when they miss they get it back at an elite rate. And when they take close shots or get fouled they make them at an elite rate. Maybe we can force turnovers against them? Nope. They also rank 34th in turnover percentage. The math says Illinois has a sizable advantage from every area on offense and that’s why they have the best offense in the country.

There are some weaknesses to exploit on defense relatively but not that many. Illinois being the tallest team in the country does mean that it’s really hard to be outright bad on defense. They can at least contest shots with their length at every position even if they don’t have the best athletes. The rebounding and blocked shot numbers are very good because of that.

Where Illinois has their biggest issue is their depth. With Boswell’s injury and Petrovic not living up to expectations it means this is basically a 7-man roster right now. The Ivisic brothers combine to take up essentially all 40 minutes at center and then only 6’9 Ben Humrichous is truly available to soak up minutes at the 3/4 with the guards otherwise playing just about the whole game. So that means just get Illinois in foul trouble, right?

Easier said then done. Illinois knows they’ve got issues with depth and so they just don’t foul. They rank 1st in the country in opponent free throw rate. That’s not a great sign for Washington. The Huskies are 2-7 this year when they have a free throw rate on offense below 30%. Illinois gives up 19% on average. Washington absolutely needs a friendly whistle to have any shot at pulling an upset but it doesn’t seem likely.

The flip side of Illinois’ aversion to fouling is that they also don’t force turnovers. They’re dead last in opponent turnover rate and 2nd to last in steal rate on defense. If Washington is going to win this game then they need that trend to continue with 5 or fewer turnovers. The Huskies have to find ways to make up possessions knowing what a juggernaut Illinois is on offense and one of the only clear ways to do that is to keep from turning it over when UW has the ball. And oh yeah, they’re going to have shoot like they did against Oregon making close to 50% of their three-pointers.

Earlier this week I looked into how brutal Washington’s schedule has been recently. The 7-game stretch culminating in this game is the 4th toughest for any team this season and they recently wrapped a 5-game stretch that was the toughest of any team in the entire country. Illinois is scorching hot. Washington got a feel good win this weekend to hopefully build some momentum but no one has gotten within 5 points of Illinois since December 13th. Things are set to turn around soon with the schedule lightening up but the best UW can hope for in this one is a late surge helping them cover the spread like they’ve done a few times recently. I’m not counting on it though

Prediction

Washington Huskies– 68, Illinois Fighting Illini- 85

Season picks: 14-6 straight up, 10-10 against the spread