The Arrinten Page paradox: Evaluating Northwestern’s most polarizing player

This January, Northwestern fans have stumbled upon Schrödinger’s Arrinten Page.

Sometimes he’s good, and sometime’s he’s bad, and it all depends on who you’re talking to and when. Good games are framed as “flashes,” but bad games are a product of “misusage.” Statistical arguments are discounted because they’re “taken out of context,” though film study doesn’t mean anything if there aren’t the right statistics to support it.

In Evanston, the discourse surrounding Schrödinger’s Arrinten Page is at a climax. Page has played under 15 minutes in each of Northwestern’s last four games after logging 30 minutes against Illinois on Jan. 14. On Thursday against Penn State, he played a season-low three minutes as the Wildcat youth movement delivered Northwestern’s first Big Ten home victory.

‘Cats fans aren’t the first to puzzle over the Georgia-native’s incongruous identity as a basketball player.

At USC and Cincinnati, Page’s critics won out. In his first two collegiate seasons, Page averaged just 9.8 minutes per game, with insignificant output in all major statistical categories. At the start of each season, fans of his new team began optimistic about his raw talent, theorizing that their system might be capable of unlocking his full potential. However, by season’s end, both programs came to a consensus that Page’s flaws outweighed his explosive capabilities.

As a junior at Northwestern, Page finally stumbled into expanded opportunity. The ‘Cats saw their depth chart at the center position completely collapse during the offseason, losing Matthew Nicholson, the five-year Wildcat who had started almost every game at center for Chris Collins since the 2022-2023 season, and Luke Hunger, who featured consistently off the bench during his three years in Evanston. By the fall, Page was the only player on Northwestern’s roster standing six-foot-nine or taller who had previously played in a collegiate basketball game, making him the clear-cut preseason starter at the center position.

Through the season’s first 12 games, Page played 27.9 minutes per game, averaging 14.7 points per game. He was playing more than ever before and thriving in his expanded role through Northwestern’s non-conference slate. However, once the ‘Cats entered Big Ten play and the losses started to pile up, the paradox returned.

The majority of ‘Cats fans aren’t happy with Page, and Collins seems to be siding with them. With the current trajectory, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Page will once again be searching for a new team this upcoming offseason, abandoned like he was in Los Angeles and Cincinnati.

But is that what is best for Northwestern basketball? Here’s my take on what the film, and the statistics, say about the Arrinten Page paradox.

Offense

MOST impactful quality: Isolation playmaking

Page’s greatest skill is playmaking out of one-on-one matchups. At the collegiate level, Page does show flashes of Demarcus Cousins-type isolation capabilities from the high post or mid-baseline.

When guarding Page in isolation, defenders have to choose to either give him an open midrange look (and hope he misses), or concede a step to him on a drive towards the basket (and hope help defense will come in the paint).

However, Page can consistently knock down the midrange jumper. Though I think Page shoots too many three-point jump shots, attempting 1.6 per game though he has shot at just a 25.8% lick this year, he does shoot a high percentage from midrange distance. As a result, more often than not, defenders concede Page a step driving to the basket, consistently giving him opportunities to penetrate the paint and make plays around the basket.

A great example of Page’s skillset in isolation came against Wisconsin at the 1:20 mark in the above video.

Late in the first half, Page gets a one-on-one opportunity mid baseline. Will Garlock, the Badger defender, concedes too much space and Page comfortably knocks down the midrange jump shot.

At the start of the second half, Aleksas Bieliauskas chooses to respect Page’s jump shot, guarding him all the way out to the three-point line. With space completely opened up in the paint, Page makes Bieliauskas pay with a perfectly accurate bounce-pass to a cutting Angelo Ciaravino — Page is actually a pretty good passer, with a 1.75 AST/TO ratio that’s the best of Northwestern’s forwards.

Just a few minutes later, in another isolation situation, Bieliauskas takes a step back to protect the paint after an aggressive rip through from Page, but he doesn’t respect the jump shot, and pays the price; Page splashes another.

Though, when Page does choose to go to work in the paint, he can also be lethal. Watch his highlights against DePaul from 1:45 onwards in the above video.

Page is able to score in so many different ways, and he knows how to slowly tease out his bag as the game progresses. At 1:45 he scores with a spin move to a right-handed hook shot. Then, at 1:57, his defender takes away the right-handed hook, so he steps through and finishes to his left.

Against Wisconsin, Page scored 21 points on 8-of-13 shooting, while against Depaul, he scored 22 points on 10-0f-11 shooting. In both of these games he was given a multitude of isolation opportunities, and completely took over inside, terrorizing opposing defenses with his playmaking abilities.

Oftentimes overlooked, Page’s skillset in one-on-one matchups is his most valuable asset, and it’s why he grades well analytically. Statistics like EvanMiya.com’s offensive Bayesian player rating (OBPR) and BartTorvik.com’s PORPAGATU! track the value a player brings on play-to-play basis, incorporating box score statistics such as points, rebounds, assists, etc. Page ranks second on Northwestern in PORPAGATU! and third in OBPR.

Skill: Rim threat

Also important to take note of his Page’s general ability to be a “rim threat,” being in the right spot to receive feeds at the rim AND having the ability to finish at the rim in a diverse array of ways.

At 0:07 in the above video, Reid gets to the “B1G” logo in the paint on a dribble drive. While Page’s defender, Tomislav Ivisic, is forced to step up and help on Reid, Page does a good job staying in Reid’s passing lane on the right block. Reid finds Page, who flushes it home.

Obviously, in that example, Page’s finish is pretty simple. Oftentimes, Page’s around-the-rim finishes are more difficult. Against Virginia, at 0:42 in the above video, Page was able to make work of three Reid pick-and-roll feeds where he’s too far from the basket to finish with a dunk. In the first play, he’s able to high-point the ball and tip it in; the second time around, he finishes off-the-glass on his way down to the ground; and, in the third sequence, he sets his feet and converts upon a reverse layup, using his lengthy arms to score on the other side of the rim.

Now, this kind of scoring is somewhat expected from a player with Page’s six-foot-eleven, 245-pound frame, but it’s still a major part of Page’s offensive impact, nevertheless.

Weakness: Consistent concentration

An offensive weakness of Page is that he is prone to general lapses in concentration. Sometimes the big man just falls asleep at the wheel, dropping a point-blank feed (0:13 in above video) or shooting a shot when he’s not at all open (0:23).

Most frustrating to me is that Page slips screens way too often. In the first play featured in the above video, Page is not intentional about engaging with Reid in the pick-and-roll, slipping his screen to pop out to the perimeter. Page’s lack of a screen offers Reid zero separation, and, as a result his defender is able to stay with him on his drive to the basket — it’s a concentration mishap that shouldn’t happen.

Defense

MOST impactful quality: Poor pick-and-roll defense

If you’ve been following my colleague Eliav Brooks-Rubin’s series Collins’ Classroom, you should already know that Page is very poor defending the pick-and-roll (PnR). Page’s problems are two-fold: he switches screens when he’s not supposed to AND he can’t defend guards from the perimeter.

In Collins’ Classroom: Closing Woes, Brooks-Rubin dissects Page’s rough performance down the stretch of Northwestern’s 79-68 loss to Illinois. Those sequences, from 0:25 to 1:24 in the above video, were the worst basketball Page has played all season. Here, I’ll look at Page’s PnR defense against Minnesota, from 1:25 to 1:45.

Northwestern does not switch ball screens when the opposing team’s center is involved. On the first play, Page switches onto Langston Reynolds out of the PnR when he’s not supposed to, leaving Minnesota’s forward, Grayson Grove, completely uncovered. Reynolds dissects the Ciaravino-Page double-team and finds Grove wide-open cutting to the basket.

On the very next possession, Page is supposed to switch off of a dribble-handoff, but is too slow in doing so, giving Cade Tyson, one of the Big Ten’s best three-point shooters, an open perimeter look. Tyson makes Page pay.

Page’s inability to do his job defending PnR actions is something teams have repeatedly attacked in late-game situations. Though not all teams have enough five-man rotational depth to consistently attack Page in one-on-one mismatches, the ones that do, like Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan State, were able to make Page an extreme defensive liability.

Skill:Paint protection

What people often miss, however, is that Page is generally a pretty good paint defender.

Against Wisconsin, Page had three blocks and two steals, his best defensive performance of the season. At 0:15 in the above video, Page gets back in transition and blocks Nick Boyd, the Badgers’ leading scorer, at the rim. Later, at 0:20, Page gets the best of Boyd again, staying with him on his drive and swatting his layup.

Page’s ability to impact the box score as a paint defender shows up statistically. Leading the ‘Cats in blocks and placing second on the team in steals, the advanced analytics once again like Page on this side of the ball, as the junior center slots in second on Northwestern in EvanMiya.com’s defensive Bayesian player rating. When Page is on the court, it’s harder for the opposing team to score inside.

The Occasional hustle play

And, finally, as can be seen in the video above, Page does have the occasional hustle play.

I include this not to say that Page is always out-hustling the players around him, but to combat the narrative that he doesn’t play with lively energy on the defensive end. On both the offensive and defensive ends, Page brings effort and energy. Rather, his shortcomings come from gaps in basic basketball IQ and inconsistent concentration.

The verdict

Page is a polarizing basketball player.

A good way to describe Page would be that you always know when he’s on the basketball floor. Sometimes he’s unguardable, with the speed, coordination and size to beat almost any defender. However, sometimes it seems like he can’t do anything right, with bone-headed offensive mishaps and constant malpractice defending the pick-and-roll.

Though, I believe that this year Page has become the scape-goat of a losing team. When Northwestern started 5-1 with just one loss to an ACC-title contending Virginia team, the narrative was that Page was a revelation. However, after going 5-10 since the South Carolina game, people have completely flipped on Page.

And I get it, because in a lot of ways Page’s impact has decreased. Per BartTorvik.com, Page’s PORPAGATU!, a measurement of a player’s offensive efficiency at their usage, has declined from 4.5 to 2.1 since after the South Carolina win. Yet, even when looking at statistic’s like these, it is all about perspective.

Page’s 4.5 PORPAGATU! rating to start the season was the best on Northwestern, even better than Nick Martinelli. And even now, his 2.1 rating since late November, is second highest on the team. The film supports this statistical evaluation.

The easy thing to do when a team is losing is to blame one player. But with Page, I don’t think that’s what’s best for Northwestern.

Moving forward, I think the ‘Cats should find a way to re-integrate Page into the primary rotation. Perhaps, he shouldn’t start. And, most definitely, he shouldn’t play dominate minutes against lethal pick-and-roll teams; we’ve learned that.

But, it’s an overreaction to completely give up on a talent that has proven he’s capable of giving this team a lot of life. There’s not a single player on the ‘Cats, outside of Martinelli, that I trust more to make a play in isolation. That’s what the film says, and that’s what the stats say.

In the case of Schrödinger’s Page, this ‘Cat will always carry uncertainty, but I believe the good is too rich to waste.