White Sox fans need to hope the experts are wrong

Pitchers and catchers report before long, but expert baseball analysts have already been gazing into crystal balls and algorithms and coming up with analyses of where they things stand as the offseason burns away.

Multiple Top 100 prospect lists have now been published, with the White Sox scoring from three to six, with five the most common total — Braden Montgomery, the two recently drafted shortstops, Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz. That’s nice, though it’s generally acknowledged that if you trade away every veteran any other team could possibly want you ought to be fairly high in the farm system ratings (such as The Athletic’s No. 8).

All is not rosy even on the prospect evaluations, though. To take Keith Law’s list at The Athletic as an example, there is doubt Braden will be ready soon because of time lost to injury. There are also big questions about the two lefty pitchers, with Law calling Smith mostly likely a mid-rotation starter and voicing big doubt about Schultz’s ability to stay healthy and discover where the strike zone is. On the other hand, Law is big on both shortstops, calling Billy Carlson among the best high school shortstops he’s ever seen, though he says Caleb Bonemer isn’t really able to play short (he said the same thing about Colson Montgomery a year ago, and that hasn’t proven to be true, at least not yet).

Prospects, shmospects — what about the current team?
Well, the boys in Vegas are out with their over/under numbers for 2026, and think the Sox will lose 96 games or so, which seems a reasonable guess. One or two sites have predicted lineups, and if an outfield of the defensively incompetent Andrew Benintendi in left, Luisangel Acuña (whom two teams have given up on as an outfielder) in center, and the erratic Brooks Baldwin in right doesn’t have you covering your eyes every time a ball is hit past the infield, you are very, very brave indeed.

Yeah, but what about the pros at FanGraphs, what’s on their minds?
Funny you should ask. Among other things, FanGraphs last week came out with its 2026 projections for players on all MLB teams (the numbers here are ZiPS, Steamer varies somewhat). This may be another chance to avert your eyes if you’re squeamish. The list covers 1,903 position players who might be in the majors this season, ranking them by expected fWAR, beginning with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani and going through C.J. Pittaro and Daniel Guilarte.

The list is broken up into pages of 30 players each, which is handy given there are 30 MLB teams. That means that an average offensive team should end up with one per page — one in the Top 30, one in the next 30, and so on. It wouldn’t work that way precisely, of course, but should average out about there.

So let’s look at the predictions for the Sox. But don’t forget that eye-averting advice.

Page 1: No White Sox
Page 2: No White Sox
Page 3: No White Sox

Page 4: Finally, Kyle Teel checks in at No. 99, with an expected 2.6 WAR, almost all of it defensive thanks to being a catcher. FanGraphs sees Teel as an average hitter, hitting.247 with 12 homers and a 101 wRC+ (100 is average).

Page 5: No White Sox, though it’s where Luis Robert Jr. shows up.

Page 6: Colson Montgomery appears at No. 152 with 2.2 WAR, including defensive points for playing short. FanGraphs has Colson as a slightly below-average hitter — no faith in his 2025 homer barrage — with a .216 average, 23 long balls, 159 Ks and a wRC+ of just 94. Then infielder Sam Antonacci — not even on anybody’s MLB depth chart so who knows why — enters at No. 179 with a 101 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR.

Page 7: Finally, newcomer Munetaka Murakami shows up at No. 202, indicating that FanGraphs shares the belief of the other 29 teams that Murakami’s struggle against pitches faster than 92 mph isn’t all just a matter of getting used to them. They do peg him as a solid hitter with a 121 wRC+ thanks to 24 homers, and a .352 OBP thanks to 74 walks, with his WAR dragged down to 1.8 because of terrible defense.

That 1.8 is below the generally accepted figure of 2.0 to represent a a solid starter. Chase Meidroth at No. 216 is scored the same, Miguel Vargas at No. 245 scores a 1.6, then it’s off a cliff to Curtis Mead at No. 382 and, well, why go on? Suffice it to say Benintendi and Lenyn Sosa barely scored on the plus side, both hurt by defensive ineptitude. Even Edgar Quero only rates a 0.6 WAR prediction.

But what about pitchers? They’re going to be good, right?
Well, er, uh, hmm…

Same ranking system, with Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet (remember him?) at the top, and 30 a page by predicted fWAR.

This time, the White Sox actually get a player on page two, with Shane Smith clocking in at No. 59 and 2.1 WAR. Then it’s zilch until page five, with Davis Martin at No. 142 and 1.4 WAR (the guideline of 2.0 for an MLB starting players applies to pitchers, too.) After Martin, it’s all the way to newcomer (from the Rays) Duncan Davitt at No. 193 and Jonathan Cannon at No. 201, Grant Taylor at No. 212 and presumed new starter Anthony Kay at No. 220.

(Dylan Cease is No. 9 and Chris Sale No. 2,1 if you want to get nostalgic.)

Ugly? Sure, but it’s only projections, not reality, and you’re allowed to maintain hope anyway.
And you were warned to avert your eyes.