5 bold predictions for the Giants’ offseason

We have been so focused on the hiring by the New York Giants of John Harbaugh as head coach and the building of his staff that we have largely ignored the fact that free agency and the 2026 NFL Draft are not that far off. Here are five bold predictions for the Giants’ offseason. Let’s see if I get any of them right.

Kayvon Thibodeaux gets traded

I was asked again and again during the 2025 season — even before it began — about the idea of the Giants trading Thibodeaux. I always said I was against the idea. I was in favor of letting the season play out and seeing if Thibodeaux, Brian Burns, and No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter — all best-used as pure edge defenders — could not only play together, but thrive.

The results were decidedly mixed. And, yes, we have to add the caveat to any discussion of production that Shane Bowen was clearly not the right defensive coordinator to make it work.

Burns had a career year. Once the Giants finally got through to Carter (thank you, Mike Kafka) regarding what it takes to be a pro he flashed the dominance the Giants expected when they made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Thibodeaux? How he played depends on who you ask, and probably what you are looking for.

Thibodeaux had a career-best 80.8 Pro Football Focus run defense grade. He had a career-best 83.6 Impact Score from Pro Football and Sports Network, 19th among all graded edge defenders.

If you were looking for pass rush impact, though, it wasn’t really there. He had 2.5 sacks in 10 games before being injured, a pace that would have given him just 4.5 sacks for the season. His pass rush win rate dropped from 14.2% in 2024 to 11.1% in 2025. His pressure rate dropped from 6.6% to 5.9%.

Most alarmingly, his missed tackle rate has skyrocketed to unacceptable levels. It was 6.8% in 2022, 14.3% in in 2023, 27.6% in 2024, and 29.0% in 2025.

Maybe Kafka and interim defensive coordinator Charlie Bullen get credit for Carter’s increased production at the end of the season, but it’s a fact that Carter was more productive when he didn’t have to share the stage with or play out of position at times to accommodate Thibodeaux.

This feels like the right time to move on from Thibodeaux. He will play 2026 on his fifth-year option and then become a free agent, unless the Giants choose to extend him. The Giants don’t have a third-round pick thanks to last season’s trade for Jaxson Dart. They might be able to get that in return for Thibodeaux. If not, they could likely at least get a couple of mid-round picks that would soften the blow of not having that third-rounder.

The Giants could use the draft to make up for moving Thibodeaux. They could go edge or linebacker in Round 1, though that seems unlikely. They could sign a veteran for depth. Jihad Ward, a former Giant who played for John Harbaugh in Baltimore and defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson in Tennessee, is available. Kyle Van Noy, with the Baltimore Ravens last year, is also available. Both are veterans who can still play, and could help set the culture Harbaugh wants.

There is always the possibility if the Giants trade Thibodeaux that he goes on to be a better player elsewhere than he has been in New York. It’s a chance they might take.

Tyler Linderbaum signed, John Michael Schmitz traded

Schmitz is a guy some Giants fans have hated on for three years. I have defended the young man, pointing to the simple truth that Schmitz has improved every season.

That being said, Schmitz is an adequate NFL starting center. That, probably, is what he is going to be. Linderbaum, whatever quibbles you have with his game, is more than that. He is one of the best in the league. He is also a former Raven. Harbaugh has made it clear that building in the trenches is the path the Giants have to take in order to truly compete with the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.

For Harbaugh, I can’t think of a more obvious move toward accomplishing the goal of improving in the trenches than bringing in the player who orchestrated his offensive lines in Baltimore. That won’t be cheap. Spotrac projects a market value of four years, $70.893 million, $17.723 million annually, which would make him the league’s second-highest paid center.

Regardless of price, it won’t surprise me if it’s a move Harbaugh wants to make.

The question, then, is what happens to Schmitz? There is really only one answer. If you sign Linderbaum, Schmitz has to be traded.

Schmitz is a center-only. He has not played any guard in college or in the NFL. Considering the value of NFL roster spots, a team can’t have a backup offensive lineman who is a center only. Depending on how the roster is constructed, Greg Van Roten, Austin Schlottman or another versatile veteran can fill a backup guard/center role.

Schmitz’s value at that point would be as a trade chip, probably for a mid- to late-round asset or two from a team in need of a starting-caliber center.

Caleb Downs is the pick at No. 5

Taking a safety fifth overall in the NFL draft is controversial, and rarely done. I get that. GM Joe Schoen is a strong believer in positional value. Left to make this decision on his own, I’d think the chance he would select Downs is close to zero. I get that, too.

This decision, though, is not Schoen’s to make. Ultimately, it is Harbaugh’s to make. Harbaugh coached Ed Reed, a Hall of Fame safety who was named First-Team All-Pro five times. He coached Kyle Hamilton, a player I thought should have been in play for the Giants at No. 7 in the 2022 NFL Draft, for the past four years. Hamilton has been a First-Team All-Pro in two of these four years. If anyone understand the impact a game-changing safety can have on a defense, it is Harbaugh.

The Giants have choices at No. 5. I fully understand the support for drafting a wide receiver. What I have a hard time with, though, is that few analysts think Carnell Tate or Jordyn Tyson, this draft’s top receivers, will ever be more than a No. 2 receiver in the NFL. It is hard for me to be excited about using the No. 5 pick on that. If they re-sign Jermaine Eluemunor, tackle is probably not a need.

I just keep coming back to the lack of production from Giants’ safeties in recent years, looking at Downs, and trying to come up with reasons to pass on him. Other than “he’s a safety,” I haven’t got many.

CB Cor’Dale Flott is the odd man out

The Giants three most important free agents are Flott, right tackle, Jermaine Eluemunor, and wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. It would be fantastic if the Giants could bring all three back, but that probably isn’t reality. The NFL is a hard salary cap league, and there are 31 other teams with varying needs and varying degress of cap flexibility.

As Harbaugh is finding out with his coaching staff, you can’t have everybody you want. I keep going back-and-forth on which of these three free agents will stay or go, but I am going to guess that Flott winds up being the odd man out here.

The Giants already need more at wide receiver, even with Robinson and Malik Nabers. It will cost a pretty penny to keep Robinson — Spotrac estimates a four-year, $70.568 million deal, $17.642M annually — but it has to be done. Robinson is coming off the best season of his career, and the Giants simply can’t let one of Jaxson Dart’s primary targets out the door.

I am not sure how Harbaugh, and whoever the new offensive line coach and offensive coordinator are, will feel about Eluemunor. It is never a good idea to let good offensive linemen walk away if you can help it, and Eluemunor is that. Spotrac estimates a two-year, $17.333 million deal for Eluemunor, $8.7M annually. If the number is around there, it is palatable and there is no reason not to pay it.

Flott? He is coming off his best season, and he is still just 24 years old. I wonder, though, how Harbaugh and new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson will feel about a starting outside cornerback who weighs just 175 pounds. Spotrac estimates a four-year, $38 million deal, $9.5 million annually, for Flott. I’m not sure how the Giants would fill the second starting cornerback slot but I think that’s too much to pay for Flott.

Some draft manuevering

I don’t know who they will target, but the Giants use the bevy of mid-round picks, and an asset from the 2027 draft, to move up into the end of Round 1 to select another player they hope will have an immediate impact on their 2026 roster.

Like he did last year, I think Schoen draws a line in the sand and refuses to trade his 2026 second-round pick, No. 37 overall, to make that happen.

What Schoen and Harbaugh could do is use that No. 37 overall pick to move down and collect assets. As Chris Pflum pointed out to me, that might be a possibility if quarterbacks Ty Simpson of Alabama and Garrett Nussmeier of LSU are on the board for quarterback-needy teams.