In the lab: The Astros platoon advantage

Every good analysts has to start with an acknowledgement of limitations. As much as we might want to rely on the numbers on the back of the baseball card, each season exists in its own universe. One of the axioms I always go by is that I don’t really start worrying or getting excited until Memorial Day. Every season exists in its own universe and teams have to spend much of April and May figuring out who is going to do what. The Astros consistently start very slowly and one of the reasons is that it takes that much time to figure out what combination of guys are going to work.

Most successful teams have a core of good players and they ride them for the balance of the season. If you look historically at the greatest teams in history, they have a core group of four to six players that play consistently at an all-star level. The current iteration of the Astros do not have that. Even if we assume health, Yordan Alvarez is the only player that stands out on a roster of solid players that aren’t likely to perform at a traditional all-star level.

The good news is that they are deeper in terms of solid players than in some years. Assuming health, there aren’t any positions that project to be gaping holes, but there are very few that project to be very good. With Dana Brown and Joe Espada on the last years of their contracts, there is added pressure to get this right. Say you want about Espada (and I know every fan has their opinions), his job will not be an easy one this season. He needs to find the right combination of guys to make this work.

We will focus on a number of different positions as we move closer to spring training, but if we look at the career numbers of just those in the outfield, we see an opportunity to mix and match to create the best result. Of course, with opportunity also comes risk. It also comes with roster decisions for Dana Brown. The question will be whether younger players can serve you better on the bench or getting regular plate appearances in Sugar Land.

Below we take a basic look at slash lines (AVG/OBP/SLG) for all of the players that could potentially play in the outfield. We will include Jose Altuve in these because he will likely get some starts in left field. The task for Joe Espada and Dana Brown is to figure out how exactly to deploy who they have to the best results. For Brown, he needs to see if there is anything out there that could fill in some of those gaps.

One of the more intriguing works in the stats community is a book by former SABR president Vince Gennaro called “Diamond Dollars”. There were a few landmark nuggets in that book, but the biggest one was what he termed the “platoon advantage.” Essentially, the idea is that teams will pay a premium for a player that will hit from both sides of the plate.

For instance, Alvarez has a .900+ OPS against both righties and lefties. That kind of proficiency is expensive on the open market. Most players have one side where they are dominant and one side where they aren’t. The general premise is that if 75 percent of the pitchers in baseball are right-handed then a player that performs well against right handed players is worth 75 percent of that player that performs well from both sides. Yet, most of the time those players get a fraction of the money.

For instance, Jesus Sanchez will earn just under seven million dollars a year, but he has a career OPS against righties that is well above the league average. If you paired him with Cam Smith then the total player with an OPS approaching .800. How much would you pay for a player that would produce that level of production from both sides of the plate?

The question is how far you take the platoon advantage? There are 26 guys on a roster and 13 of them are pitchers. So you have only four bench slots and one of those will be a backup catcher. So, you need to be as strategic as possible with those remaining three bench slots. One of those decisions will be whether to carry a fifth outfielder.

When you look at the breakdown, Zach Cole performed better against right handed pitchers than against lefties. Granted, that was in a limited number of plate appearances at the big league level. However, he is a left handed hitter, so those splits would be more or less expected. He would be a natural platoon partner with Jake Meyers if given the opportunity.

This is where Dana Brown comes into play. He has to decide whether Cole is better served playing every day in Sugar Land than two or three days a week at the big league level. Players like Dezenzo offer some flexibility due to his ability to play first base. You also need to have a reserve infielder as well and that is where a player like Nick Allen comes into play.

It definitely won’t be easy for Espada and Brown in Spring Training and that is assuming there are no more moves that are made between now and then. It will take a lot of mixing and matching, but based on the career numbers above, there are opportunities to maximize production against both righties and lefties. Next time, we will take a look at the infield to see what opportunities are there.