The Seahawks and Patriots both went 14-3 in the regular season.
SAN FRANCISCO — The Seattle Seahawks didn’t get the respect they probably deserved over the course of what was a dominant regular season. Now that Super Bowl LX is here, after two great wins by Seattle in the playoffs, there might be an overcorrection.
Just about everyone seems to be picking the Seahawks to beat the New England Patriots in a Super Bowl LX rout. Go find anyone, outside of New England, who likes the Patriots to win straight up. Of the 10 oddsmakers Yahoo Sports’ Ben Fawkes asked, nine thought the Seahawks would win. Two-thirds of the bets at BetMGM are on the Seahawks to cover the 4.5-point spread. Around the host city early in the week, it was hard to find anyone who was taking the Patriots.
As we know, when everyone seems to be on one side, that can be dangerous.
While the respect for the Seahawks has spiked, the disrespect for the Patriots has gotten a bit out of control. Judging by the pre-Super Bowl chatter, you wouldn’t know they’re 17-3 counting playoffs.
Here are the reasons New England +4.5 is the pick for Super Bowl LX, with a reason to believe the moneyline at +190 is in play too:
The Patriots are excellent at the two most important positions: Somewhere along the line, it seems to be forgotten that the Patriots arguably had the best coach and the most valuable player in the NFL this season. Mike Vrabel will probably win NFL Coach of the Year, and while Drake Maye seems likely to finish second in the NFL MVP race, the quarterback who will win the award isn’t in this game. It’s not bad to take an elite coach/QB combo.
Mike Vrabel (and others) have experience: This is a matchup of two teams mostly new to the Super Bowl experience. Only nine players on both active rosters have been in a Super Bowl before.
One head coach has Super Bowl playing experience. Vrabel appeared in three Super Bowls. Listening to him speak this week about how he has laid out the week for his team, it’s clear he picked up lessons from Bill Belichick. Also, his offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been a part of 10 Super Bowls. It might seem insignificant but the Patriots’ leadership being on this stage before matters.
The strength of schedule argument is overblown: Never before has strength of schedule come up so often for an NFL team. The Patriots had the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, and that did factor into their success. But it’s not like they played in the Mid-American Conference. Winning 17 games against NFL competition is hard. While worth a mention, strength of schedule has dominated the conversaton with New England recently, and that’s off base.
The Patriots can combat Seattle’s best player: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is likely to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year this week, and it’s deserved. So is all respect for Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, one of the team’s best players who will likely see a lot of JSN on Sunday. Nobody should expect Gonzalez to shut out Smith-Njigba. But if he can limit him to some extent, that’s big. Smith-Njigba had 36.2% of Seattle’s targets in the regular season, which was the highest mark in the NFL. If Gonzalez can keep JSN from going off, Seattle’s offense doesn’t have many other counterpunches.
The Patriots match up well with Seattle’s weakness too: Seattle doesn’t have many weaknesses, but the interior of the offensive line is one. Guards Grey Zabel and Anthony Bradford ranked 44th and 72nd among all NFL guards in Pro Football Focus’ grades this season, and starting center Jalen Sundell was 19th. They’ll be blocking defensive tackles Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, who have been very good this postseason. That could be a big matchup, especially since Sam Darnold’s struggles come against pressure.
Sam Darnold still has turnover issues: The criticism of Darnold is overdone. He has been good for all but a few games the past two seasons. But it is worth noting that Darnold led all NFL quarterbacks with 20 turnovers this season (14 interceptions, six lost fumbles). Could a Patriots defense that has allowed 26 points in three postseason games get a turnover or two to turn the game? Perhaps.
As a bonus, here are some props for Super Bowl LX, with all odds from BetMGM:
Rashid Shaheed MVP (33-to-1): Here’s the thing: If the Patriots win the Super Bowl, Drake Maye is very, very likely to be the game’s MVP. At +230 odds, there’s no value in that. If the Seahawks win, it’s more wide open. If Sam Darnold doesn’t play great, Jaxon Smith-Njigba doesn’t go over 100 yards against Christian Gonzalez and Kenneth Walker III doesn’t have a big day against a good Patriots run defense, who could be MVP? It might be the explosive returner who can change the outcome with a big special teams touchdown, or a huge play at receiver too. The odds are enticing. I also love Shaheed over 19.5 receiving yards; that’s probably one catch for him.
Drake Maye first TD (+1600): The Patriots’ best offense this postseason might be Maye scrambling. Whether it’s a scramble or a designed run, Maye’s legs make him live to be the first scorer.
Hunter Henry anytime TD (+230): The Seahawks’ defense is fantastic, but they will give up some plays to tight ends. Henry led the Patriots with seven receiving touchdowns in the regular season. He has a shot to score in the Super Bowl and there’s value in the odds. I’m good with any Henry over props, like over 39.5 receiving yards.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 93.5 yards: This is a scary one. JSN was amazing this season. He could blow past 100 yards, of course. But Christian Gonzalez is pretty good too.
Coin toss is heads (-102): Last year, tails didn’t fail. With that win, tails leads 31-28 over heads in the Super Bowl coin toss history. This has to come back to the middle, right?
Last week: 1-1
Playoffs: 6-6
Season to date: 140-137-7
Category: General Sports
