Fine margins could help swing Elland Road showdown

It could come down to fine margins at Elland Road.

Nottingham Forest travel to Leeds knowing the victors would move nine points clear of the Premier League's relegation zone.

They are level on 26 points, six ahead of West Ham, and on goal different - with 16th placed Leeds holding the slender advantage having scored seven more.

But the winners will hold a commanding lead at least until the Hammers' trip to Burnley on Saturday as Daniel Farke and Sean Dyche look to take a giant leap to safety.

There will be nerves and expectation in equal measure on Friday night and one mistake could make the difference - which is where Leeds have the edge.

The hosts have made the fewest errors leading to a shot [11] in the Premier League this season and no team has made fewer mistakes leading to a goal than Leeds' three - Arsenal, Bournemouth, Manchester City and Manchester United have also made three.

Meanwhile, only Tottenham [28] have made more errors leading to a shot than Forest [27] while only four sides have made more leading to a goal than Forest's six.

Although, despite Leeds' stats, they have the worst save percentage and have conceded seven more goals than expected given the number and quality of chances they have faced.

Only Wolves [+12.4] and Bournemouth [+8] have underperformed their xG by more.

Both teams still tipped for survival

Forest have not been as solid at the back as Leeds - they have given up 20 more shots than this weekend's opponents and only Burnley [48.2] and West Ham [41.1] have given up more xG against in the league

While Leeds have conceded far more than expected [42], Forest have conceded fewer [35], mainly due to Matz Sels in goal although the Belgium international is likely to miss out this evening with a groin injury.

Yet both teams are tipped to stay up ahead of the current bottom three of West Ham, Burnley and Wolves.

The bottom two of Burnley and Wolves are rated to be all but down according to Opta, with West Ham having a 83.3% change of relegation to the Championship.

That is despite only Wolves [15] scoring fewer goals than Forest's 24.

But that is mainly due to Forest not taking their chances - they have had more shots than eight other teams but only Wolves [6.7%] have a worse shot conversion rate than their 8.5%.

Leeds have also struggled to finish their chances with only four teams, including Forest and Wolves, below their 10.4%.