Wrestling Preview: #1 Penn State vs #11 Michigan

The Nittany Lions hit the road for the last time before the NCAA tournament in Cleveland, this time taking on the Wolverines in their school’s basketball arena (which they’re hoping to “light up”).

A few years ago, when the current Penn State streak was in its infancy, Michigan was the team best poised to take down the dynasty, with a ton of transfers (including former Lion Nick Suriano) and the Amine family. Just a few short years later, and PSU has reloaded, and the Wolverines, with an overall young roster coupled with a trio of grad transfers, have fallen out of the top ten overall, though they do still sit in third place in conference standings.

The starting lineup of the home squad boasts eight ranked wrestlers this year, but only two sit in the top ten. They’re fresh off a loss against rival Ohio State, their first Big Ten conference loss (their match against Nebraska in the National Duals counts as an out of conference loss); they do face Iowa the week after they take on the Nittany Lions.

The two Wolverines with the highest rankings moved up after securing upsets against their opponents in the dual against the Buckeyes last week, with 184er Brock Mantanona upset Dylan Fishback and heavyweight Taye Ghadiali, a transfer from Campbell, took down title contender Nick Feldman in extra wrestling.

On the flip side, the Nittany Lions are fresh off a win over Nebraska where they didn’t look their best – but they still outscored their opponents by 14 points and won 7 of 10 bouts while giving up only a handful of takedowns. Look for a much improved performance for this dominant squad, with last week being the kick in the pants they may not have necessarily needed in order to finish this season strong.

How To Watch

What: #1 Penn State vs #11 Michigan

Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arboe, MI

When: Friday, February 6, 6pm EST

Audio: Free (via GoPSUSports)

Video: Big Ten Network

Lineup

125

Luke Lilledahl will face on of the three grad transfers on the Michigan squad; Sotelo is an Ivy League transfer that’s been to a pair of NCAA tournaments, but he’s up against a juggernaut. Luke is on a tear this year after having a stellar offseason, and this one should be bonus fairly easily for the Nittany Lion – though I don’t think he’ll get the victory as quick as next week’s opponent, Bouzakis, did.

Prediction: Lilledahl by tech fall

Score: PSU 5, UM 0

133 LBS

Botero is the only Wolveriine starter with a losing record on the season, which means the outcome bout is only a question of how many bonus points the speedy Blaze gets. While I could see a fall, I think it’s more likely that the PSU freshman plays catch and release and this ends in a tech sometime in the second period, not unlike his opponent next week.

Prediction: Blaze by tech fall

Score: PSU 10, UM 0

141 LBS

It’s been a while since the Nittany Lions have lost a team point, and in last week’s dual against Nebraska, Braeden Davis cost PSU that ongoing streak. This week, he’ll be up against veteran Wolverine Dylan Ragusin, a returning All-American that, on paper, should be a strong win for the Penn Stater. After an emotional loss last week, though, this may end up being closer than expected – though I anticipate Braeden getting a few late points to take the bout.

Prediction: Davis by decision

Score: PSU 13, UM 0

149 LBS

McNeil is another transfer for the Wolverines, this time from UNC; he’s been a solid contributor for Michigan this season, and was one of four on his team to notch victories against the Buckeyes. That won’t help against Shayne Van Ness, though, who may give up a takedown early but will prove victorious in the end – close to bonus, but not quite enough for the extra point.

Prediction: Van Ness by decision

Score: PSU 16, UM 0

157 LBS

With his Cael tax paid, PJ Duke is free to turn around this season and learn from his overtime rideout loss to Antrell Taylor. Catrabone has been a welcome young addition to the Michigan roster, but Duke will come out on fire and likely pretty pissed off (despite his protestations to the contrary) about last week. I don’t envy the UM grappler’s position on the schedule this week.

Prediction: Duke by major decision

Score: PSU 20, UM 0

165 LBS

Mitchell Mesenbrink faces the other of two Wolverines that are unranked on the year. As if he needed more motivation, this one should be over quickly; the tech fall is a safe choice here, but a pinfall feels almost more likely.

Prediction: Mesenbrink by tech fall

Score: PSU 25, UM 0

174 LBS

Levi let his emotions get a little on him last week, and I’m anticipating he’ll be more of his stoic self this week against one of the twins on Michigan’s roster. This should be a measured victory, dominant in most everything but the score; this shouldn’t look, on paper, like it was as one-sided as it will feel during the bout.

Prediction: Levi by decision

Score: PSU 28, UM 0

184 LBS

Rocco Welsh has fit in very well with this Penn State team, gaining confidence with every week and notching perhaps the most impressive performance against the Huskers. This week, he’s up against another confident guy in the other Mantanona twin, fresh off his aforementioned upset of a higher ranked Ohio State wrestler. While this shouldn’t be bonus, Rocco has another chance at a very good win, solidifying his status at the top of this weight class.

Prediction: Welsh by decision 

Score: PSU 31, UM 0

197 LBS 

In a roster over half full of #1s, Josh Barr, one of only two PSUers to have wrestled on Saturday night at the NCAAs last year, feels the most unheralded. The press isn’t on him (and the Hodge talk even less), but he’s quietly been the second most dominant wrestler on this squad. That will continue this week against another ranked opponent.

Prediction: Barr by tech fall

Score: PSU 36, UM 0

285 LBS – Match of the Meet

Last week, Ghadiali scored one of the upsets of the week in taking down the higher ranked Feldman of OSU, one of the favorites at this weight. It perhaps shows that some of the early matches at the National Duals may not be the harbinger many thought; for some reason, though, I’ve got an oddly good feeling about Cole’s chances here. Ghadiali is also a former 197er, and Cole’s been getting better each week; his late loss to Ferrari last week will only embolden him. I expect he’ll get an early takedown and Ghadiali won’t be able to recover, and Cole out-gas-tanks him.

Prediction: Cole by decision

Score: PSU 39, UM 0

Overall score prediction: Penn State 39, Michigan 0

*The Penn State athletic department, in its official capacity, uses Intermat’s Tournament Power Index in all its match literature; I’m using Intermat’s Dual Meet Rankings because this happens to be a dual. Penn State is #1 in both rankings; Michigan is #11 in the dual rankings, and #13 (T) in the tournament rankings.