BYU is in its lowest point of the season and will look to get back on track with a massive win when Houston comes to the Marriott Center Saturday night. Despite BYU’s lackluster win and Houston coming off two 20+ point wins, oddsmakers and projections have Houston by just one possession. BYU has played great […]
BYU is in its lowest point of the season and will look to get back on track with a massive win when Houston comes to the Marriott Center Saturday night.
Despite BYU’s lackluster win and Houston coming off two 20+ point wins, oddsmakers and projections have Houston by just one possession. BYU has played great at home and have some tendencies that could work versus Houston, so we’ll see if this game is as close as Vegas thinks it will be or if many BYU fans will be right in their thinking Houston will blow the doors off them.
The game tips off Saturday night at 8:30pm MT on ESPN
BYU and Houston by the Numbers
Houston KenPom: 6
NET ranking: 7
Record: 20-2 (8-1 Big 12)
Best Wins: Auburn (N), Arkansas (N), Cincinnati (A/H), Texas Tech (H), Baylor (A), West Virginia (H), ASU (H), TCU (A), UCF (H)
Losses: Tennessee (N), Texas Tech (A)
AP Ranking: 8
BYU KenPom: 18
NET Ranking: 12
Record: 17-4 (5-3 Big 12)
AP Ranking: 17
KenPom Prediction: Houston 76, BYU 75 — Houston 75% win probability
Point Spread: Houston -2.5
Point Total: 148.5
Houston Overview
Houston has as strong of an identity as any program in the country — tough, physical, force turnovers, and rebound. That isn’t any different this year.
One of the first things that jumps out about this Houston team is turnovers — they force a lot and they don’t give away many. Houston is top five in the country in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage, and they’ve gotten even better in Big 12 play. In Big 12 play Houston turns it over on just 10.7% of its possessions and forces turnovers on 22.2% of possessions — both of those are #1 in the Big 12. The Coogs aren’t an elite shooting team (#6 in Big 12 in eFG%), but they have the #1 KenPom offensive efficiency due to their ability to not turnover the ball over and get second chance points (#4 Big in offensive rebound percentage).
Defensively, Houston has no real holes. They force turnovers due their aggressive traps off ball screens and in the post, and they slow the pace to play on their terms. Their defense isn’t quite as good as last year when they were the #1 defensive team in college basketball.
Houston is really good but they have spots where they can be susceptible. Offensively, they take a lot of threes but can be inconsistent shooting. They shoot 32.9% from three in Big 12 play (#12 in conference) and are bottom five in the league in free throw rate. Houston doesn’t need to be as efficient as other teams because they don’t turn the ball over and they are good at rebounding their misses. But if you can rebound the ball — and that is one thing BYU has been good at this season — then you can slow down their offense.
Defensively, they allow Big 12 opponents to shoot 35% from three (#8 in Big 12) and their traps leave them susceptible to offensive rebounds. BYU is second in the Big 12 in offensive rebound percentage, and Houston allows opponents to rebound 32% of their misses (#9 in Big 12).
Historically, teams who have elite isolation scorers who are also big enough to see over double teams are teams that can beat Houston. Houston will take away your offensive flow, so players who can score 1-on-1 to avoid the traps off ball screens and see over the defense to find the open man when the double teams do come can have success. JT Toppin is the best offensive player Houston has seen this season, and he had 31 points in Texas Tech’s 90-86 home win over Houston. AJ Dybantsa has struggled with turnovers, but he has the rare skillset to have success against Houston.
Houston will play up to 8 guys, but the majority of their scoring and production comes from the starters.
Players to Watch
Kingston Flemings, Guard — Flemings doesn’t get as much notoriety as some of the top freshmen in this elite class, but he is one of the best players in the country. The 6-foot-4 guard leads Houston in points (17 ppg) and assists (5.5). He has one of the highest usage rates in the Big 12 and is efficient, shooting 52% from the field, 38% from three and 82% from the FT line. He had 42 points in Houston’s loss at Texas Tech and has scored 20+ points in four Big 12 games. Flemings isn’t a high volume three-point shooter most games and does a lot of damage off the dribble and finding his spots on pull ups.
Emanuel Sharp, Guard — The senior guard averages 15.9 ppg and killed BYU both games last year, shooting 9-15 from three in two games. Sharp shoots 36% from three and leads Houston in three-point attempts.
Milos Uzan, Guard — Uzan shot just 26% from three in non-conference play, but in Big 12 play found his shooting from from last year and is shooting 42% from three. He and Flemings are the two primary ball handlers, and Uzan gives dangerous shooting ability if teams focus too much on Flemings.
Joseph Tugler, Center — Tugler is the reigning Big 12 DPOY as a 6-foot-8 big man with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. Tugler’s stats don’t pop — 7.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.5 blocks in 23 minutes — but he is incredibly active and his massive wingspan on traps are a nightmare for opposing guards. He is #1 in the Big 12 in offensive rebound percentage.
Chris Cenac — Forward/Center — The 5-star freshman hasn’t quite lived up to his lofty ranking, but the 6-foot-11 big man has improved as the season goes on and is a great rebounder. Cenac starts next to Tugler in the frontcourt and leads the team in rebounding (7.8 rpg) while giving some ability to stretch the floor. He’s shot at least three threes in each of Houston’s last three games and is shooting 19-52 (37%) from three on the season. He has double digit rebounds in four Big 12 games and is second in the Big 12 in defensive rebound percentage.
Prediction
Both of these teams are going in opposite ways. BYU has lost three in a row and Houston pounded their last two opponents, albeit both at home. Houston has mostly played close games on the road. Below is a quick summary of their Big 12 road games.
- Cincinnati, 1/3 — Won 67-60. Houston trailed at halftime and the game was tied with 3 minutes left. Houston ended game on 7-0 run.
- Baylor, 1/10 — Won 77-55. Houston led by 7 at half and then ran away after halftime.
- Texas Tech, 1/24 — Lost 90-86. Texas Tech had just 10 turnovers and had 21 offensive rebounds compared to 11 from Houston. Toppin went for 31 and 12 and TTU shot 41% from three.
- TCU, 1/28 — Won 79-70. TCU was within two points multiple times in the second half, but Houston pulled away at the end.
If BYU wants to win they must 1) limit turnovers, 2) continue to rebound well on both ends, 3) hit open shots early to open things up for AJ and 4) have AJ score in 1-on-1 situations. I don’t expect BYU to turn over Houston, but this can’t be a game BYU loses the turnover battle 17-6. Houston scores tons of points off turnovers and BYU must value the basketball. Rebounding speaks for itself. Houston pummels teams when they turn them over and own the glass. Which they do often.
BYU will get open looks off Houston traps, and BYU must find those shooters and knock down shots. Those are important for the points, but that will also allow AJ space to operate. Which brings me to my final point — AJ has to look like the #1 pick. He is capable, as we’ve seen so many times. Houston’s defense is built to suffocate you with double teams and force you into turnovers. They are not as built to guard you straight up one one one. AJ has the ability to break Houston’s tendency and score versus players he is more individually talented than. He hasn’t been as good against the top teams, but BYU needs AJ to be great not just because he is the most important player for BYU, but because he can make Houston play away from normal tendencies.
A win for BYU would be massive. It would give the team (and fans) a massive jolt of confidence, give a much needed Quad 1A win, and prove to people that they are indeed a Final Four caliber team.
I think BYU will keep this close at home, but ultimately I’ll side with Houston. Lead guards have feasted against BYU, and Flemings is as good as anyone BYU as seen. He is surrounded by great shooting guards on the perimeter, and ultimately I don’t think BYU can slow down Houston enough.
Prediction: Houston 78, BYU 74
Category: General Sports
