Opta predicts Liverpool’s crucial clash with Man City

Liverpool Favoured for Man City Showdown as OPTA Data Shapes Expectations

Liverpool head into their latest Premier League clash with Manchester City carrying the weight of expectation — and, crucially, the backing of data. According to OPTA’s predictive model, the Reds enter Sunday’s meeting at Anfield as narrow favourites, despite an up-and-down campaign that has tested both depth and consistency.

OPTA’s supercomputer assigns Liverpool a 43 per cent chance of victory, compared to Manchester City’s 30.3 per cent, with the draw rated at 26.7 per cent. Those figures are not driven by reputation alone. Instead, they reflect long-term trends, current form, and underlying performance metrics that continue to tilt this fixture in Liverpool’s favour.

With the Premier League title race finely balanced and Champions League qualification still a central priority, this encounter represents a defining moment for both sides.

Photo: IMAGO

OPTA Supercomputer Points Towards Anfield Advantage

OPTA’s model places Liverpool marginally ahead heading into this fixture, underlining the importance of home advantage in high-profile contests. Anfield remains one of the most challenging venues in English football, particularly for visiting elite sides.

Historical data supports that assessment. Liverpool have lost just once in their last 22 Premier League home matches against Manchester City, recording 14 wins and seven draws in that period. The only defeat came in February 2021, played behind closed doors during the pandemic.

OPTA’s projections factor in these long-term trends, alongside more recent performance indicators. Liverpool’s home expected goals figures, pressing efficiency, and defensive stability have consistently ranked among the strongest in the division this season.

The model also reflects City’s comparative difficulties on Merseyside. Even in seasons when Guardiola’s side have dominated domestically, Anfield has often proven resistant to sustained control.

Historical Patterns Continue to Favour Liverpool

Beyond simple win-loss records, OPTA data reveals deeper patterns that strengthen Liverpool’s position. Manchester City’s attacking output has frequently dipped at Anfield, with key forwards finding fewer high-quality chances than in other away fixtures.

Erling Haaland, now 25, has failed to score in all three of his Premier League away appearances against Liverpool. Anfield is one of only two grounds in the division where he has yet to register a league goal, according to OPTA records.

Liverpool’s defensive structure has traditionally limited City’s central progression and reduced their shot volume from high-value areas. In recent home meetings, City have averaged fewer touches in the penalty area and lower expected goals than their season norms.

These patterns reinforce why OPTA’s model continues to rate Liverpool highly in this specific matchup, even when league positions suggest a tighter contest.

Recent Form Reflects Growing Stability Under Slot

While Liverpool’s season has not been without turbulence, the broader trajectory since autumn has been positive. Since matchday 13, no Premier League side has suffered fewer defeats than Arne Slot’s team, with just one loss across 12 league fixtures.

That run has been built on improved defensive discipline and greater tactical consistency. OPTA data shows Liverpool’s goals conceded per game has dropped significantly during this period, alongside an increase in ball recoveries in advanced areas.

The recent 4-1 victory over Newcastle United offered a clear example. After conceding early, Liverpool generated sustained pressure, recording one of their highest expected goals totals of the campaign.

Manchester City, meanwhile, may arrive with fitness concerns. Bernardo Silva has been described by Pep Guardiola as an “incredible doubt” due to a back problem, potentially limiting City’s midfield control.

Form data suggests Liverpool are becoming harder to break down and more efficient in key moments — qualities that carry significant weight in OPTA’s forecasting models.

Attacking Output Strengthens Liverpool’s Case

Liverpool’s attacking evolution has been central to their improved outlook. Florian Wirtz has grown steadily into his creative role, while Hugo Ekitike has developed into a reliable scoring presence.

Since December, OPTA records show Wirtz has been involved in more goals than any other Premier League player across all competitions. His chance creation and progressive passing numbers place him among the league’s elite playmakers.

Ekitike’s impact has been equally notable. He has reached double figures for league goals at a younger age than any Liverpool player since Michael Owen, underlining his long-term importance.

These improvements come at a time when Manchester City have shown signs of vulnerability. OPTA data indicates City have failed to score a second-half league goal in 2026, highlighting issues in sustaining attacking intensity.

Taken together, Liverpool’s growing attacking efficiency, combined with historical resilience and home advantage, explains why OPTA continue to view them as marginal favourites.

It does not guarantee victory. However, it does offer a data-driven explanation for why confidence is building ahead of one of the Premier League’s most significant rivalries.