Non-Conference Opponents’ Update: March 4

Can we all calm down for just a moment?

Yes, the season has not gone as expected. In fact, I called a 28-3 year early on. None of us expected four home losses. Yes, Purdue has underachieved, but can much of the fanbase please stop acting like Matt Painter has no idea what he is doing or making up reasons for the team’s struggles?

I know I am just a blogger, but here are my key points on where we are right now.

• Michigan has been incredible this year. They have a very real chance of finishing 19-1 in the conference with four other teams that have spent a good portion of the year in the top 10. I don’t think anyone was catching them. Purdue would have needed to play near perfect basketball to catch them, but everyone else in the Big Ten can say the same.
• NONE of the losses would even remotely be considered “bad” losses. All are to Tier 1 NET teams and only one (at Indiana) is close to the Bubble right now. Purdue lost a rivalry game on the road by 5 points when it played terrible pretty much the whole game. It sucks, but it is not like losing at home to Gardner-Webb and North Florida.
• It is very troublesome that Purdue has lost all four marquee home games, but they are all to teams that are legit Final Four contenders. Two of them were toss-up games at the final media timeout, too. We know the Boilers can compete against truly elite teams.
• Finally, I know it is very weird to say this, but I think Purdue has been a much, MUCH better team away from home. Gicarri Harris and CJ Cox have been bigger X-factors outside of Mackey for whatever reason.

This is still a very, very good team. A three seed seems most likely at this point, with an outside shot at a 2. That means avoiding a 1 seed for as long as possible. Among Bracket Matrix’s consensus top 16 seeds Purdue is battle tested. It is 3-4 against those teams, and it is unlikely to play any of them until the Sweet 16.

I know in my heart this team is capable of a run. It has also played very, very well outside of the Big Ten the last few years (yes, St. Peter’s and FDU are enormous exceptions). All the tools are there and anything can happen in a single elimination tournament. I still believe in this team. I believe it has everything it needs to make it to Indy. If it is better away from Mackey and outside the Big Ten then good news, that’s the NCAA Tournament! We very likely wouldn’t see another conference foe until at least the Elite Eight.

Can Purdue win it all? Well, I don’t think it has as good of a shot as it did on November 1, but it is more than capable of making it to Indy. Once there, anything can happen. Remember: we got to play an 11 seed two years ago once there.

So let’s relax. Purdue is comfortably in the tournament. It will be favored in the final two regular season games which should be treated as tune-ups. It will probably get another shot at the likes of Illinois or Michigan State in Chicago as a litmus test. It even will now likely get an extra game against a bottom half team for Braden Smith to pursue the assists record since we’re most likely a 5 seed in Chicago.

Let’s all take a deep breath and get ready for March. This team has shown, this very season, it can play better basketball. If that happens in the next few weeks all will be forgotten, and I know this team is more than capable of doing it. I’d much rather have that good basketball hit right now than in January/February like it has before (Yes, I see all of you “Painter’s teams peak too early” folks).

So, deep breath, let’s take a final look at the NCAA profile before conference tournaments begin.

(And yes, if we look like shit tonight against a bad Northwestern team everyone can say I told you so and fully panic).

Purdue Boilermakers Profile

Record: 22-7, 12-6 Big Ten

NET: 9 (Down 3 from last update)

KenPom: 7 (The same as last update)

Bracket Matrix Consensus Seed: 3

Tier 1 Wins (KenPom) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 12 Nebraska (Away), 14 Texas Tech (Neutral), 16 Alabama (Away), 23 Iowa (Home), 23 Iowa (Away), 30 Wisconsin (Away), 40 Auburn (Neutral), 67 USC (Away)

Tier 2 Wins (KenPom): Home 31-75 Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 43 Indiana (Home), 54 Washington (Home), 66 Minnesota (Home), 62 Akron (Home), 130 Maryland (Away)

Tier 1 Wins (NET) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 12 Nebraska (Away), 14 Texas Tech (Neutral), 17 Alabama (Away), 26 Iowa (Home), 26 Iowa (Away), 39 Auburn (Neutral), 32 Wisconsin (Away), 63 USC (Away)

Tier 2: Home 31-75 (NET) Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 40 Indiana (Home), 61 Washington (Home), 56 Akron (Home), 69 Minnesota (Home)

Bad Losses (Sub-100 NET or KenPom): None

Evansville Purple Aces (7-24, 3-17 MVC) – NET 310, KenPom 305 – Evansville finished dead last in the Missouri Valley Conference, but did get an 80-79 win over Valparaiso. They play Northern Iowa tomorrow night in Arch Madness for what is likely their final game. NCAA CHANCES: Miraculous auto-bid needed

Oakland Golden Grizzlies (16-15, 12-8 Horizon) – NET 168, KenPom 162 – The Horizon League tournament is always a bag of cats, so Oakland as the four seed is definitely a shot. They host Northern Kentucky tonight in what is effectively the quarterfinals (their league tourney is WEIRD) and they won both regular season meetings. NCAA CHANCES: Decent shot at an auto-bid

Alabama Crimson Tide (22-8, 12-5 SEC) – NET 17, KenPom 16 – The Tide got a nice road win at Tennessee last weekend 71-69, but fell at Georgia last night 98-88. They have a chance to drive a stake through the hearts of their bitter rivals Auburn in the regular season finale Saturday. NCAA CHANCES: LOCK, Projected 4 seed

Akron Zips (23-5, 14-1 MAC) – NET 56, KenPom 62 – Akron is really, really good, and if not for the amazing run of Miami (OH), they might be getting some chatter as an at large team. After a 77-64 win at Central Michigan last night they are now 16-1 in conference with the lone loss coming by three at Miami. They probably are not an at large team, but if they beat a 33-0 Miami in the MAC title game for the autobid I think we get a two-bid MAC. NCAA CHANCES: Very good shot at an auto-bid

Memphis Tigers (12-17, 7-9 American) – NET 131, KenPom 131 – Memphis has never been able to put it together this year and get into the top 100. They have also now lost five straight including at home to Wichita State 88-82 and at East Carolina 84-68. NCAA CHANCES: Miraculous auto-bid needed

Texas Tech Red Raiders (22-8, 12-5 Big 12) – NET 14, KenPom 14 – When I talk about knowing in my heart Purdue is a very good team I cannot help but think of the Texas Tech game. The Red Raiders have proven they can beat elite teams. They won at Arizona and on Saturday they won 82-73 at Iowa State, who thrashed Purdue in Mackey. Yes, they lost at home to a decent TCU last night 73-65, but they still won at Iowa State missing their best player in JT Toppin. Purdue absolutely destroyed them, with Toppin, on a neutral floor. The Purdue in that game is the Purdue I know we are capable of being. NCAA CHANCES: LOCK, Projected 3 seed

Eastern Illinois Panthers (12-19, 8-12 Ohio Valley) – NET 322, KenPom 327 – EIU finished tied for 8^th in the Ohio Valley after a 71-67 win at Lindenwood and a 77-50 loss at SIU-Edwardsville. They turn right back around and play SIU-Edwardsville tonight in the OVC tourney in Evansville. NCAA CHANCES: Miraculous auto-bid needed

Iowa State Cyclones (24-6, 11-6 Big 12) – NET 10, KenPom 9 – Purdue and Iowa State are basically even in all the computer metrics, so their big win in West Lafayette is the difference. They have now lost two straight, but they are to Texas Tech and at Arizona 73-57. This is still a solid 2 seed and I still think Purdue played its worst game of the season against them. NCAA CHANCES: LOCK, Projected 2 seed

Marquette Golden Eagles (10-19, 5-13 Big East) – NET 107, KenPom 103 – It has been a dismal year for Marquette after some pretty successful recent seasons. Their 62-51 loss on Sunday to DePaul gave the Blue Demons a season sweep. Tonight they are at Providence before hosting UConn. NCAA CHANCES: Miraculous auto-bid needed

Auburn Tigers (16-14, 7-10 SEC) – NET 39, KenPom 40 – Auburn’s 88-74 win over LSU at home last night bought them a reprieve, but in reality this is a bubble team that should not be a bubble team. They are barely over .500 and with a Saturday loss at Alabama and an SEC tourney first round loss they would be 16-16. Worse yet, they may finish four games under .500 in the SEC. You know me. I firmly believe no team with a losing record in its conference deserves an at large bid, and if a 16-16 Auburn gets in over a 33-1 Miami it would be one of the biggest travesties in the history of this sport. They are 2-7 in their last nine! NCAA CHANCES: Somehow still a Bubble team even though they shouldn’t be. Do not even send them to Dayton.

Kent State Golden Flashes (22-8, 13-4 MAC) – NET 142, KenPom 152 – In any other year the Golden Flashes would be a solid team and possible MAC champion. Instead, they will finish third behind heavyweights Miami and Akron. In fact, they are 0-3 against those two after a 92-70 loss last Friday at home against the Zips. They will likely have to beat both to win the MAC Tourney, and they might be the only other team that could beat the Redhawks in the final and still get a two-bid MAC. NCAA CHANCES: Decent shot at an auto-bid

Likely NCAA Teams: Alabama, Texas Tech, Iowa State

Possible NCAA teams (Could win Autobids): Akron, Kent State, Oakland

Bubbly: Auburn