F1 races in Bahrain & Saudi Arabia under threat

The Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Grands Prix are under threat as a consequence of the US-Israel war with Iran.

The two countries are among the Gulf states targeted by retaliatory missiles launched by Iran in response to US-Israeli air strikes.

Bahrain is set to host the fourth race of the season from 10-12 April, with Saudi Arabia's event in Jeddah a week later.

Missiles have hit hotels and civilian and energy infrastructure, as well as targeting American bases in the countries.

The US naval base in the Bahraini capital Manama has already been hit by Iranian missiles. It is situated in the Juffair area, one of the parts of the city where F1 personnel stay.

The Saudi Arabian race is near an oil refinery which four years ago was the target of a missile attack by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

A statement from F1 said: "Our next three races are in Australia, China and Japan not in the Middle East - those races are not for a number of weeks.

"As always we closely monitor any situation like this and work closely with relevant authorities and will always prioritise the safety and security of all those in the sport."

Although the Bahrain Grand Prix is five weeks away, F1 has no more than two weeks before it has to make a decision as to whether the two races can go ahead because of the need to fly equipment to the two countries.

What will influence the decision?

If the war is still ongoing at the time F1 feels it needs to make a decision, there seems little prospect that the races can happen.

But even if by then there has been a full ceasefire and peace talks involving all parties have been arranged or are taking place, F1 can still not predict the reaction of outside, related or proxy groups.

That could mean that the risk of holding the races is considered too great even if the war has officially ended by the time a decision has to be made.

But a decision to cancel the races could have a significant financial impact - the fees paid by the two oil-rich countries add up to well over $100m. These would not be paid if the races are cancelled.

Would they be replaced?

Complicating matters still further is that the chances of rescheduling the races are slim - the F1 calendar is congested and there are no obvious places where they could fit.

In the event the races do not take place, there is unlikely to be a replacement, which would shorten the season to 22 grands prix.

A number of possibilities have been mentioned - holding a race at Portimao in Portugal, Imola in Italy or Istanbul in Turkey.

But none is realistic because there simply would not be enough time to organise an event, sell tickets and so on.

Another possibility mooted has been to hold a second race in Japan after its grand prix at Suzuka on 27-29 March.

But that is not said not to be an option - there would be little benefit to weigh against the impact it would have on F1 personnel.