Eli Tomac earned his first podium in three rounds at Washougal as Hunter Lawrence ended a four-race streak of second-place finishes.
Losing the Washougal National during the last round with a raw, opening line of -844 was bound to influence smart money's opinion on Jett Lawrence. The good news is that for the Ironman National, the first race of the final three rounds, Jett's line is 269 points more attractive. The bad news is that it is still significantly in the minus range at -555. The traders remain convinced Jett will win, but they needed to reduce bettors' risk — if only marginally.
Statistics suggest this may not be a cakewalk for Jett. Not only was he beaten last week, but Ironman has favored three riders during the past seven years with multiple wins for Jett, Chase Sexton, and Eli Tomac. The overriding number is that his Washougal loss was only the second time in Jett’s Pro Motocross career that he was beaten on the track. It was also the only time he was beaten when he was fully healthy.
His Washougal victory also altered the line on Sexton. After sitting out four rounds due to an injury at Fox Raceway in Pala, California, Sexton returned with a line of +590 at RedBud. He had a few cobwebs to shake off and didn't perform particularly well, so his line lengthened to +763. That race showed progress with results of fifth in Moto 1 and fourth in Moto 2, so Alt Sports Data, the official linemaker for SuperMotocross, put him back at +580. Since he was likely the most attractive second choice of many bettors who like to cover their bets, he cashed in and was lowered to +387. That bet could be covered with a head-to-head wager of Sexton (+330) over Jett (-515)
Traders seem to be a little uncertain as to Hunter Lawrence's value, so they have settled into a pattern. He was +451 at RedBud, +475 at Spring Creek, +432 at Washougal, and opened practically the same at +431 for Ironman. Last week in Washougal, Hunter finished fourth overall, snapping a four-round runner-up streak, so he remains one of three riders (along with Jett and Sexton) to show minus odds to podium.
That leaves Eli Tomac (+1251) as one of this week's most attractive propositions. He struggled for a couple of weeks with bike setup, but was convinced he had that fixed in Washougal. He wasn't exactly in Beast Mode, but he was podium-worthy throughout the round and finished second in the first race and third in Moto 2. He's worth some couch cushion money for a podium at +140. If a bettor is willing to forego their specialty coffee drink over the weekend, there is a significant upside to betting on the overall at 25/2.
If Tomac is the least bit attractive to a bettor for either a podium or overall win, he can be covered with a Head-to-Head bet against Hunter. With a minus line of -220, Hunter is favored heavily over Tomac's +160.
Opening Odds, Outright Overall Win
Jett Lawrence, -555
Chase Sexton, +387
Hunter Lawrence, +435
Eli Tomac, +1251
Justin Cooper, +2876
RJ Hampshire, +5680
Jorge Prado, +11136
Justin Barcia, +11136
Malcolm Stewart, +11136
Coty Schock, +12246
Valentin Guillod, +12246
Harri Kullas, +12246
Marshal Weltin, +12246
Colt Nichols, +13414
Benoit Paturel, +13414
Mitchell Harrison, +13414
Lorenzo Locurcio, +13414
Max Miller, +14393
Bryce Shelly, +14606
Romain Pape, +14606
Henry Miller, +14606
Brandon Ray, +14606
Jeremy Hand, +14606
Derek Drake, +14606
Opening Odds, Overall Podium
Jett Lawrence, -2757
Chase Sexton, -296
Hunter Lawrence, -261
Eli Tomac, +140
Justin Cooper, +230
R.J. Hampshire, +258
Justin Barcia, +1160
Jorge Prado, +1369
Malcolm Stewart, +2745
Valentin Guillod, +4796
Harri Kullas, +7841
Coty Schock, +7841
Marshal Weltin, +7841
Benoit Paturel, +7841
Lorenzo Locurcio, +7841
Colt Nichols, +7841
Mitchell Harrison, +7841
Romain Pape, +7841
Derek Drake, +7841
Henry Miller, +7841
Jeremy Hand, +7841
Bryce Shelly, +7841
Brandon Ray, +7841
Max Miller, +7841
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Category: General Sports