ESPN explains why Tennessee is a Tier 3 college football teams … out of 23 tiers

Tennessee is a Tier 3 football team entering the 2025 season, out of 23 tiers laid out by ESPN this week. The Vols are in Tier 3 along with Florida, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Texas A&M. 

Ohio State and Texas A&M led the way in Tier 1a, Georgia, Oregon and Penn State are in “Tier 1B” (the rest of the best) and Tier 2 (Playoff Expectations) is Alabama, Clemson, Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame and LSU.

Tier 3 is labeled “Someone in the SEC has to lose games, too”:

“Fun fact: All 16 SEC teams rank among the 20 hardest schedules in the country, according to ESPN’s metrics, from the grueling path for Florida (No. 1) to the easy (relatively speaking) slate at Missouri (No. 20).

“We know you’re shocked to learn that life is difficult in the SEC. The league so rarely mentions its depth or strength of schedule, and its coaches are reticent to suggest that their teams deserve any additional benefit of the doubt as a result. Oh wait, they’re actually contractually obligated to mention it in every interview.”

Season Opener: Tennessee vs. Syracuse, August 30, Atlanta

Syracuse, Tennessee’s season-opening opponent on August 30, is in Tier 8 (Regression to the mean), along with Vanderbilt. Arkansas and Kentucky are in Tier 12 (Even Stevens) and Mississippi State is Tier 16 (At least you tried).

New Mexico State, the Homecoming opponent for the Vols on November 15, is in Tier 20 (Participation trophies).

Tennessee is ranked No. 13 in ESPN’s updated SP+ projections — they’re ranked No. 7 on defense, No. 21 on special teams and No. 34 on offense in SP+ grades — and No. 10 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, which gives the Vols a 38.5% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

ESPN didn’t have Tennessee ranked in its Way-Too-Early Top 25 over the summer. The Vols were ranked No. 18 in the preseason Coaches Poll on Monday. The preseason Associated Press Top 25 will be released next week.

‘No one in the SEC has an easy ride to the playoff’

Tennessee went 10-3 last season, with losses at Arkansas and Georgia in the regular season, then ended the year with a 42-17 loss at Ohio State in the first round of the College Football Playoff. 

“Now, others might parse the data differently,” ESPN wrote of Tier 3, “but the bottom line is inarguable: No one in the SEC has an easy ride to the playoff, which makes Tier 3 likely to include at least two playoff teams and at least two schools that fire their coaches, and the difference between those camps will be a few plays one way or the other.

“The SEC is designed to eat itself, which is one of the reasons it has pushed so hard for increased playoff access. There’s simply not a scenario in which every school that invests in winning, has a playoff-caliber roster and features fans who expect to make a playoff run will actually do so.”