LIVERPOOL VS. BOURNEMOUTH

| Friday, August 15th |
Premier League | Anfield
8PM BST/3PM EST

Bournemouth were tough opposition last season, and while the Reds handed them their biggest defeat — a 3-0 away win last September — the scoreline paper’s over the challenge of the game itself: even when losing, they never seem to quit, they never make it easy. Though Liverpool did the double on Bournemouth, the Cherries themselves did the double over Arsenal, and beat the likes of Manchester City, Manchester United, and Newcastle (and the last two were beaten away). They did finish 9th, but they also had a significant injury crisis (hard to remember as it often showed up most when the televised match showed the collection of injured players in the stands watching their side dispatch their opposition). The injury crisis alongside their run to the FA Cup quarter-finals stage might explain some dips in form (or, at least, results).

This is not the Bournemouth of last season, however. While there has been a level of panic around Liverpool’s defensive cohesiveness following the Community Shield (and it’s worth noting that some of the pre-season goals conceded weren’t ideal, either), it’s safe to say that Bournemouth is in a potentially worse position. If the Cherries had a strong 2024/24 — their final position as 9th on the table belies how hard they were to play against — this showing meant a lot of interest from other clubs for key Bournemouth players.

As long-rumored and eventually expected, Liverpool landed Milos Kerkez, who managed the most minutes for Bournemouth last season in all competitions (3,560), and Dean Huijsen’s domineering performances at center back alongside his £50 million release clause meant he would certainly leave come summer, and Real Madrid came calling. It’s worth noting, too, that goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga was on loan, and thus will also not be at the club for the 2025/26 season. Though both defenders and goalkeeper were crucial for Andoni Iraola’s side, they left early in the summer and their departures were expected; as such, the club could prepare for the loss. Unfortunately for the Cherries, though, defender Illia Zabarnyi departed for PSG this week, and the last minute move means it’s harder for the club to prepare for his absence. As it stands, Bournemouth — who tend to build their attack from deep — have lost four of their back five from last season.

While both Iraola and Bournemouth fans have faith that the club’s strong recruitment will fill the gaps, there’s a worry that the start of the season has come a bit too soon for the squad. This could mean that Liverpool are playing Bournemouth at an ideal time: though Liverpool are themselves defensively unsettled, the attack looks dangerous and able to exploit any errors made by opposition defenders.

Though Bournemouth lost three of their most-featured players over the summer, they retain their most dangerous: Luis Sinisterra played the second-most minutes last season and accrued the highest non-penalty expected goal involvements per fBref with 15.8 (5.8 expected assists and 10 non-penalty expected goals), scoring 13 and earning six assists. These values are not simply due to playing time, either, as he landed third on expected goal involvements per 90 (0.44), behind fellow attackers Dango Outtara (0.62) and Evanilson (0.53) among players who lodged over 2,000 minutes for the club. Outtara had a good pre-season for Bournemouth, though Iraola has more options in attack than he does in defense, despite injuries.

Injuries will certainly impact Iraola’s selection, with key players either ruled out or at varying stages of recovery. Sinisterra has been struggling with a hamstring injury (the latest in a long string of them, frustrating fans), and is doubtful for Friday’s match; if he is fit enough to feature, his minutes are likely to be limited whether he starts or comes off the bench. Turkish attacker Enes Ünal is out with a cruciate injury, as is Bournemouth mainstay Lewis Cook, who may see the opener a bit too soon for his rehabilitation. Justin Kluivert, the Bournemouth penalty-taker and general attacking threat, is carrying a calf injury and is likely to miss this one. Finally, midfielder Ryan Christie is also unlikely to feature as he manages a groin injury.

The Cherries importantly have retained the services of Marcos Senesi, a center back who had the most goal involvements of any center back in the league last season (four goals and four assists). Though the Bournemouth defense will still be developing and a bit in flux as a unit, the game plan is likely to remain the same, and Senesi is a threat both in the build-up and in set plays — and it’s worth noting that Liverpool did not look overly competent in defending set plays last season or across pre-season. Indeed, one of the better aerial defenders from corners was Darwin Núñez, who both had limited minutes and has got off to Saudi anyway.

Bournemouth will be difficult to play against, even if they’re not at their cohesive best yet and even if they aren’t at peak fitness to start the season. Iraola is a talented coach, and he will look to get the most out of his players from the start. They will make this match graft, and Liverpool will need to be up for it.

Predicted Liverpool Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Alisson; Frimpong, Konaté, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo; Ekitike

Arne Slot has some decisions to make, though we’re likely to see the same attack that lit up the first half of the Community Shield in the season opener, with new signings Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz making their Premier League debuts. Ryan Gravenberch is unavailable through suspension, as he foolishly got sent off in the meaningless final match against Crystal Palace last season. Slot may well go for a pivot at the base of midfield in the Dutchman’s absence, with any of Curtis Jones, Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexis Mac Allister, and Wataru Endō available for selection. Szoboszlai seems a likely choice for his work rate alone, and I would expect to see either Alexis Mac Allister — who had his pre-season minutes limited for fitness reasons — or Curtis Jones repeating the Community Shield spine, though a cheeky Wataru Endō start is certainly not out of the question.

In defense, Conor Bradley remains unavailable through injury, so Jeremie Frimpong should debut at right back. Slot has a decision to make on the left, with Any Robertson available should the manager prefer experience over youth (and he might well choose not to give Milos Kerkez his debut against his former side). Interestingly, though Joe Gomez is returning from an injury, he was pictured in training, and thus the Reds might have less of a depth problem than we think in the immediate term. Virgil Van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté certain to start at the center of defense, with Alisson in goal.

Mohamed Salah struggled in the Community Shield, with some poorly-taken chances (not the least the skied penalties) and lost possession (once leading to a professional foul and rare yellow to stop a counter attack). He rarely has two bad games in a row, however, and may have been impacted by things we can’t know about. He’ll be pleased to know that the match provides Mo Salah Stats opportunities as well: the Egyptian has scored more goals (9) and had more goal involvements (14) on a Premier League opening day than any other player, with only Paul Pogba managing more assists than Salah (Pogba recorded six, Salah’s on five). Salah also has 105 league goals at home, and only Sergio Agüero (106 at the Etihad) and Thierry Henry (114 at Highbury) have more scored at a single stadium. Though this record suffers from the Premier-League-Invented-English-Top-Flight-Numbers issue, it’s nonetheless another feather Salah will attempt to put in his cap this season, surely. Perhaps most importantly, Salah has scored 11 league goals against Bournemouth, which is more than any other player.

Though Bournemouth have not lost an opening league match in any of heir last seven season, Liverpool haven’t lost an opener since the 2012/13 season — interestingly, both clubs last lost against West Bromwich Albion. Liverpool’s 12 unbeaten (W9 D3) is the longest active undefeated streak on matchday one for any Premier League side. Against Bournemouth specifically, Liverpool have won 11 of the last 12, losing 1-0 away in March 2023 — and the Cherries have taken just one point from 24 possible at Anfield in the Premier League (W0 D1 L7), losing their last six visits with an aggregate score of 23-2.

The expectations for fans of both teams and the numbers predict a Liverpool win, but it’s hard to ignore the visceral fear many of us feel following that second half showing in the Community Shield. Bournemouth will work hard to put pressure on the Reds in midfield and will exploit any defensive failures of communication. The Champions will need to look quite a bit better on Friday to start the title defense well.

The Managers Have Their Say

Arne Slot: “ [They are] intense. They made it really difficult for us last season. We beat them 3-0, where you feel like ‘What is he talking about, difficult?’ But if you look at the game, they had the first big chance of the game, they scored a goal which was fractionally offside. Then we three times, I wouldn’t say counter-attacked them but we were very fast in moving the ball from back to forward. And all of sudden at half-time we were 3-0 up, and then I thought – which I always thought when I was a manager in Holland – ‘This is going to be four, five or six-nil.‘ …But the mentality Bournemouth showed in the second half, they just kept on going. That’s the mentality they had throughout the whole season afterwards as well…So, very good team, good manager and a challenge for us on Friday. But looking forward to it because an evening game at Anfield is something that everyone is looking forward to it.”

Andoni Iraola [on the strength of Bournemouth’s 2024/25 season]: “[This season has to be a reset. We start from zero. Everyone starts from zero. Once you play one or two games, nobody will remember what we did last season.”

The Officials

Referee: Anthony Taylor Assistants: Gary Beswick, Craig Taylor Fourth Official: Farai Hallam VAR: Michael Oliver Asst VAR: Thomas Bramall

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