Where ESPN’s SP+ ranks South Carolina

With the college football season beginning in just over two weeks, preseason polls and power rankings are sweeping the nation. In recent days, South Carolina slotted in at No. 13 in both the AP and coaches preseason rankings.

This week, ESPN released its final preseason SP+ rankings. The SP+, according to the worldwide leader, is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking…These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”

South Carolina’s final place in the preseason SP+ is No. 17 overall. The team’s SP+ efficiency is 16.0. That number stems from the Gamecocks’ 33.2 offensive efficiency (26th overall), 17.2 defensive efficiency (18th overall), and 0.1 special teams efficiency (50th overall).

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Among SEC teams, South Carolina is 10th overall. The USC offense is ninth in the SP+, the defense also ranks ninth, and the special teams is 12th.

The team’s strength of schedule is seventh nationally and sixth in the Southeastern Conference. Based on those numbers, it is easy to see that the SP+ views the SEC as the best conference nationally.

In conjunction with ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index), the SP+ model predicts a win total between 7.1 and 7.3 this season for the Gamecocks.

SP+ is much more optimistic about the chances of a high-end season for South Carolina, though. The SP+ believes an SEC Championship Game win is three times more likely for USC than the FPI does. Even so, the ‘Cocks are ninth among SEC teams in percentage chance to win the league.

Overall, South Carolina ranks 57th nationally in ESPN’s returning production rating at 58%. According to the outlet, the Gamecocks return 66% of their offensive production and 49% of their defensive production. The offensive returner rate is 34th overall and fifth in the SEC. Defensively, Carolina is 82nd overall and 15th in the SEC.

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