Even with a win-total set around bowl eligibility, Arkansas may need more than just an over to feel good about the state of their football program. However, by projecting an under for them tonight, Josh Pate expects a season that could go very wrong for the ‘Hogs and, with that, Sam Pittman in Fayetteville. Pate […]
Even with a win-total set around bowl eligibility, Arkansas may need more than just an over to feel good about the state of their football program. However, by projecting an under for them tonight, Josh Pate expects a season that could go very wrong for the ‘Hogs and, with that, Sam Pittman in Fayetteville.
Pate looked at some over-unders, with several in the SEC, during ‘Josh Pate’s College Football Show’ on Sunday. That included a reluctant pick of Arkansas to finish under their total of 5.5 wins.
“There has to be an under here. I can’t just do overs. It’s not Christmas. We can’t just hand out presents. And, I regret to inform you – and if you know this show, you know that this actually does pain me – that I’m going under 5.5 on Arkansas,” said Pate. “This sucks.”
Arkansas is 30-31 (.492) through a half decade under Pittman. Remove a 9-4 finish in his second season back in 2021 and the Razorbacks are then just 21-27 (.438) over the course of the 2020s. That’s with them coming off a 6-6 finish last season before, for the second time in three years, getting themselves to a winning record by winning the Liberty Bowl.
The results have been just average, if that, under Pittman. The results for this season then may have a similar ceiling, if not lower, based on their roster along with one of the toughest schedules in the country, which features at Memphis and No. 6 Notre Dame in the conference before five of their eight games in league play against teams currently ranked in the Preseason AP Top-25.
Because of all that, Pate thinks the math is unfortunately simple here. He thinks the ‘Hogs could have a season where they’ve just called it quits to an extent by November, which could only things that much worse by season’s end on November 29th.
“Here’s my philosophy on this. I think that over-under of 5.5 is the proper number in the market…I mean, they could just surprise people and win eight games, so that’s baked into the, you know, possible variance in outcome,” explained Pate. “Here’s my problem. I don’t think they’re going to have a good year. And, if they don’t, you get to the middle of November, even early November? If it’s already gone wrong, they’ve got Mississippi State, at LSU, at Texas, and Missouri. And, if it’s already gone wrong, my concern is they are not playing at their maximum potential. Like, the over-under being 5.5 is basically modeling a season out where you get Arkansas all-in in performance every week, because you can’t forecast injuries and you can’t forecast a team kind of mailing in a season.”
“My concern is, if they know, hey, man, we’re struggling, we may not even make a bowl? I just worry about the last month of the season because there’s a world where it tails off pretty precipitously,” Pate said. “And, like, yeah, you’re going to lose at LSU and Texas. People expect that anyway. But, if Missouri comes in there and pops you at the end of the year? I’ll give you one worse. Mississippi State needs a Super Bowl game this year somewhere, and you may be the one conference game that Mississippi State, who hasn’t mailed in the season, kind of finds a way to get.”
Pate didn’t want to go there with the ‘Head ‘Hog, or Arkansas as a program. Still, based on how it all sets up for their season, he thinks this fall could be a long one for Pittman, if not a last one for him with the Razorbacks.
“That sounds like I’m incredibly down on Arkansas. Not as a brand – but, as a team this year, if it goes sideways? I think the under 5.5 is the play because I worry about how sideways it could go,” said Pate. “And then we have a whole other uncomfortable conversation (about Pittman).”
Category: General Sports
